In a little under two weeks we will get the latest official report on the number of overseas migrants entering and leaving Australia.<\/p>\n
Whatever the number is, some people will be outraged<\/a>. But they shouldn\u2019t be.<\/p>\n There has indeed been a well publicised surge in net overseas migration since late 2022.<\/p>\n But those getting angry over migration are suffering from recency bias<\/a>, and ignoring the 18 months before when more people left our shores than arrived.<\/p>\n Taking in the entirety of the pandemic and its aftermath, we can see that net overseas migration over the past five years is not much larger than it was in the five years leading up to the outbreak of Covid in early 2020.<\/p>\n Some seem to be blaming migrants for unaffordable homes; that ignores the fact that property prices were going bananas when the international borders were closed.<\/p>\n Indeed, the housing crisis is decades in the making<\/a>.<\/p>\n And if you look at the jobs market, there\u2019s no evidence that migration has been too high: unemployment has remained low at a bit over 4% and the workforce participation rate (67%) is near record highs.<\/p>\n Sign up: AU Breaking News email<\/a><\/p>\n Employers are still complaining of chronic skills shortages, not least in the trades we need to build more homes, which is the actual solution to cheaper housing.<\/p>\n Australia has benefited and continues to benefit hugely from migration, in tangible and intangible ways.<\/p>\n But with all that said, we are entitled to ask our leaders: what\u2019s the plan?<\/p>\n We might agree that the peak annual net migration rate of more than 500,000 in September 2023 was too high, but how do we know that? And what should it be?<\/p>\n In other words: what does a well-reasoned migration program look like, one that matches our need for skilled workers with our capacity to house and service a growing population?<\/p>\n On this, the government is silent.<\/p>\n Labor in August 2023 committed to working with the states to develop a comprehensive, \u201cprinciples-based\u201d plan around the number of permanent settlements \u201cto ensure migration meets the local needs of communities across the country\u201d.<\/p>\n We\u2019ve seen nothing since.<\/p>\n