{"id":210425,"date":"2025-09-08T14:40:10","date_gmt":"2025-09-08T14:40:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/210425\/"},"modified":"2025-09-08T14:40:10","modified_gmt":"2025-09-08T14:40:10","slug":"mlbs-playoff-picture-with-3-weeks-to-go-plus-aroldis-chapmans-seemingly-simple-fix","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/210425\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB\u2019s playoff picture with 3 weeks to go. Plus: Aroldis Chapman\u2019s seemingly simple fix"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Windup Newsletter<\/strong> \u26be | This is The Athletic\u2019s MLB<\/a> newsletter. Sign up here<\/a> to receive The Windup directly in your inbox.<\/p>\n

The pennant races are coming into focus \u2026 right? (Not really).<\/p>\n

Plus: Aroldis Chapman is having a stupid-good season, Trea Turner\u2019s hamstring is in a race against time and Ken\u2019s take on the contenders is that nobody is perfect. I\u2019m Levi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal. Welcome to The Windup!<\/p>\n

Clarity? Pennant race roundup<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ah, September: when every day has multiple \u201cmust-win\u201d games on the schedule. Let\u2019s check those playoff races:<\/p>\n

NL West<\/strong>: For 8 2\/3 innings on Saturday, Yoshinobu Yamamoto held the Orioles to zero hits. One out away! Then Jackson Holliday homered, and Yamamoto (at 112 pitches) was replaced by Blake Treinen.<\/p>\n

Five batters later \u2026 Orioles 4, Dodgers 3.\u00a0(Oh, and it happened on the 30th anniversary of Cal Ripken Jr. breaking Lou Gehrig\u2019s consecutive-games-played streak. Britt Ghiroli has\u00a0a story with Ripken\u2019s trainer here<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Shohei Ohtani\u2019s\u00a0two-homer game yesterday<\/a>\u00a0snapped the five-game losing streak against last-place teams, but with San Diego winning two of three against the Rockies, L.A.\u2019s division lead is back down to one game.<\/p>\n

AL West \/ wild card<\/strong>: The Rangers took two games out of three from the Astros, with Houston\u2019s lone win coming on a\u00a0Hunter Brown masterpiece<\/a>. Throw in a Mariners series win against the Braves \u2014\u00a0Cal Raleigh hit his 53rd home run yesterday \u2014 and Houston\u2019s lead is now 2 1\/2 games over Seattle, four games over Texas.<\/p>\n

AL wild card:\u00a0<\/strong>That also means Texas is 1 1\/2 games behind Seattle for the final wild-card spot. Kansas City is just a half-game behind them, Cleveland just a half-game further back.<\/p>\n

AL East<\/strong>: The red-hot Yankees took two of three from the division-leading Blue Jays, including yesterday, when\u00a0Max Scherzer was tipping his pitches<\/a>. Meanwhile, Boston dropped two of three in Arizona. Toronto\u2019s lead is down to two games over New York and 3 1\/2 games over Boston.<\/p>\n

NL wild card<\/strong>: The Reds managed two wins against the Mets behind a\u00a0first MLB home run<\/a>\u00a0and a(nother)\u00a0dominant pitching performance<\/a>. That means there\u2019s a tie \u2014\u00a0at four games out of a playoff spot \u2014\u00a0between Cincinnati and San Francisco, with the\u00a0they\u2019re-not-dead-yet Cardinals<\/a>\u00a0and Diamondbacks tied a half-game back.<\/p>\n

NL East \/ NL Central \/ AL Central<\/strong>: It\u2019s status quo. The Phillies, Brewers and Tigers each lead by at least seven games.<\/p>\n

More pennant-race watching<\/strong>:\u00a0Our staff lists\u00a0one key X factor<\/a>\u00a0for each of the top contending teams.\u00a0Full standings here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Ken\u2019s Notebook: MLB\u2019s flawed contenders<\/strong><\/p>\n

From my latest column:<\/p>\n

Two years ago, the Rangers entered the final weekend leading the AL West by 2 1\/2 games. They proceeded to drop three of four in Seattle, losing the division to Houston on a tiebreaker, then flying cross-country to face Tampa Bay in the wild-card series, seemingly certain to be a quick out.\u00a0And of course, they won the World Series.<\/p>\n

We offer that refresher on the Rangers in the hope of comforting fans infuriated by the topsy-turvy play of their favorite teams. Fans of sadsack franchises fall into that category naturally. But in this wacky season, so do fans of pretty much every contender.<\/p>\n

In writing this, I am channeling the spirit of my late father, Big Ed Rosenthal, who would shrug off any illness, surgery or other calamity my sister or I might endure by staring at us blankly and saying, \u201cIt could be worse.\u201d<\/p>\n

So, in these thumbnails of the various pretenders \u2014 er, contenders \u2014 I will attempt to show that no matter how bad your team looks, it could be worse.<\/p>\n

Los Angeles Dodgers:\u00a0<\/strong>Ah yes, let\u2019s start with the Team That Is Ruining Baseball. The team that couldn\u2019t win a game Saturday in which it no-hit its last-place opponent for 8 2\/3 innings, increasing its win probability to 99.5 percent with a 3-0 lead. The team that is nine games under .500 since July 3, seemingly operating under the premise, \u201cJust wait, we\u2019ll turn it on at the right time.\u201d<\/p>\n

The right time might already have passed. The Dodgers trail the Phillies by 4 1\/2 games in the race for the second bye in the National League. Good luck winning four series with a bullpen that leads the majors in blown saves. Heck, good luck getting out of the wild-card round.<\/p>\n

New York Yankees:\u00a0<\/strong>Give the Yankees credit. After doing what they do best, pummeling the dregs of the sport, they actually rose up and went 4-2 this week against two first-place clubs, Houston and Toronto. Of course, no Yankee fan can be too secure, knowing one of the team\u2019s patented meltdowns is never far behind.<\/p>\n

Manager Aaron Boone said the team has been working on \u201ccreative cuts\u201d (cutoff plays) to help compensate for right fielder\u00a0Aaron Judge\u2019s forearm flexor strain<\/a>. Maybe the Yankees shouldn\u2019t be reinventing a game they often struggle to play at the most basic level?<\/p>\n

For the rest,\u00a0click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Timelines: Trea Turner\u2019s balky hamstring<\/strong><\/p>\n

With just under three weeks to go in the regular season, the Phillies have that aforementioned seven-game lead in the NL East.<\/p>\n

But \u2014\u00a0as\u00a0Matt Gelb points out here<\/a>\u00a0\u2014 while that division lead is comfortable, there\u2019s another lead that is perhaps more important: Right now, they\u2019re four games up on the Dodgers for the second and final first-round bye.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s more important than usual, because Trea Turner might be in a race against the clock to return to action before the Phillies\u2019 (post)season ends. He suffered a hamstring strain over the weekend and will undergo an MRI today to determine the severity.<\/p>\n

Turner, 32, is having a brilliant season, leading the NL with a .305 batting average, and rounding out that slash line with a .356 on-base percentage and .458 slugging for an .814 OPS. His 5.3 bWAR is the second-highest mark of his career (6.5 in 2021 between the Nationals and Dodgers).<\/p>\n

Now he\u2019ll be on the sidelines for a while, as the Phillies wrap up the prelude to the postseason.\u00a0The wild-card round begins Sept. 30, while the Division Series doesn\u2019t get going until Oct. 4. You always want the bye. But if Turner hits Sept. 30 still needing more time, it could mean even more than usual for the Phillies.<\/p>\n

More Phillies<\/strong>: Good job by both the Phillies and Marlins to make up for the fan who\u00a0forgot to be a good person<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Sheesh: Aroldis Chapman\u2019s absurd season<\/strong><\/p>\n

I\u2019ve referenced it before, because it just seems so unbelievable: As Buster Olney\u00a0lays out here<\/a>, Red Sox catcher Connor Wong suggested in spring training that Aroldis Chapman can aim at a particular area of the strike zone, rather than just aim for the strike zone.<\/p>\n

And apparently the 37-year-old hadn\u2019t ever done that before. It\u2019s legitimately comical.\u00a0As a result: His whole season has been dominant \u2014\u00a0after a scoreless ninth inning yesterday, his ERA is down to 0.98 over 55 innings pitched.<\/p>\n

But his second half has been something out of a Dennis Eckersley fever dream.\u00a0Since Aug. 1, Chapman has faced 41 hitters over 13 innings. He has allowed one walk.\u00a0<\/strong>That\u2019s it. No runs, no hits, no nothing.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Since the last hit he allowed (July 23), his WHIP has been 0.06. You can\u2019t even do this in \u201cMLB: The Show\u201d \u2014\u00a0maybe not even with the difficulty set to \u201clet me cheat, I just need a win in my life.\u201d<\/p>\n

We haven\u2019t had a reliever win the Cy Young award since Eric Gagne in 2003. That\u2019s not likely to change this year, not while Tarik Skubal exists. But good grief, what a season.<\/p>\n

Handshakes and High Fives<\/strong><\/p>\n

Two updates to stories from Friday: MLB determined that\u00a0Taylor Trammell\u2019s bat was, in fact, illegal<\/a>\u00a0\u2014 but also that he didn\u2019t do anything wrong. Also, the Mets did in fact\u00a0send Kodai Senga to Triple A<\/a>.<\/p>\n

I really enjoyed this Jen McCaffrey breakdown of\u00a0Ceddanne Rafaela\u2019s five best plays of 2025<\/a>.<\/p>\n

I\u2019ve seen catchers hit with backswing before, but I think Jacob Wilson\u2019s\u00a0accidental contact with Logan O\u2019Hoppe<\/a>\u00a0was the first time I\u2019ve seen it before a swing. O\u2019Hoppe left the game; we\u2019ll know more today.<\/p>\n

Jim Bowden gives us his list of the\u00a0top 10 AL rookies of 2025<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Davey Johnson, who managed the 1986 Mets World Series team,\u00a0died Friday at 82 years old<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Most-clicked in our last newsletter<\/strong>: Ken\u2019s story on how Salvador Perez\u00a0hitting a line drive off Chapman\u2019s face more than 11 years ago<\/a>\u00a0sparked a lifelong bond.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udceb Love The Windup? Check out<\/strong>\u00a0The Athletic<\/strong>\u2019s other newsletters<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n

(Photo: Tommy Gilligan \/ Imagn Images)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Windup Newsletter \u26be | This is The Athletic\u2019s MLB newsletter. Sign up here to receive The Windup…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":210426,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[41],"tags":[1266,62,67,132,68],"class_list":{"0":"post-210425","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-mlb","8":"tag-mlb","9":"tag-sports","10":"tag-united-states","11":"tag-unitedstates","12":"tag-us"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/115169199576164378","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/210425","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=210425"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/210425\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/210426"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=210425"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=210425"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=210425"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}