The Bitcoin futures market is cooling, with reduced whale activity and stronger retail influence painting bearish sentiment ahead of key inflation data.<\/p>\n
CPI and PPI reports are expected on Wednesday and Thursday, with market analysts now eyeing a $105K BTC price retest.<\/p>\n
PPI (Producer Price Index) shows producer-level inflation trends, while CPI (Consumer Price Index) shows consumer-level inflation trends. Together, they shape Fed policy expectations.<\/p>\n
In the last inflation data<\/a> released in August, PPI rose YoY by 3.7% vs the expected 3.0%, while CPI rose YoY by 3.3% vs 2.5% expected.<\/p>\n These hotter-than-expected inflation reports initially pressured risk assets<\/a>, including Bitcoin, as markets fell 2% and scaled back expectations of aggressive Fed rate cuts.<\/p>\n However, analysts<\/a> expect the upcoming CPI to cool slightly due to easing shelter and energy prices, possibly coming in closer to 3.0% year-over-year.<\/p>\n PPI is also expected to moderate as supply chain pressures ease, though energy volatility remains a risk.<\/p>\n For Bitcoin, a cooler-than-expected inflation print could be bullish, indicating the Fed may move toward a rate cut later in September or in Q4 2025.<\/a><\/p>\n A hot inflation reading, however, could trigger another risk-off move, with Bitcoin facing short-term selling pressure.<\/p>\n Analysts at CryptoQuant reveal that Bitcoin\u2019s price has remained confined within a narrow range ($108K \u2013 $113K) over recent months, despite notable accumulation by institutional investors.<\/p>\n A closer examination of market dynamics shows that the futures market, which is a primary driver of Bitcoin\u2019s price, has shown signs of weakness during this period.<\/p>\n Data reveals a decline in participation from futures market whales.<\/p>\n This is reflected in the Average Order Size, calculated as total trading volume divided by the number of trades, which suggests greater influence from smaller, retail-driven transactions rather than large whale orders.<\/p>\n Source: CryptoQuant<\/p>\n The Futures Volume Bubble Map further adds to the bearish observation, as it reflects reduced trading activity.<\/p>\n Additionally, the Bitcoin Futures Taker CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta, 90-day) highlights that sellers (Taker Sell) have been exerting greater pressure on the market.<\/p>\n Source: CryptoQuant<\/p>\n This dominance of selling activity is another bearish indicator, pointing to the fact that futures market participants currently anticipate downward movement in Bitcoin\u2019s price.<\/p>\n Data from Coinglass shows that Bitcoin futures outflow has topped $8.55 billion in the last 12 hours, with more than -130% in net inflow change, showing investors are taking a cautious approach in the market.<\/p>\n Weiterlesen <\/p>\n Source: Coinglass<\/p>\n Bitcoin spot inflows are showing similar signs with over -346% net inflow change in the last 8 hours.<\/p>\n DaanCrypto believes the $103K-$105K level is the bearish retest support that could see volatility from inflation data push BTC to this week.<\/p>\n Current price has been rejected from the $112K level and 4H 200MA\/EMA consistently.<\/p>\n According to Daan, the market would regain strength when BTC holds above $115K or sees a monthly low sweep into a retake of $107K and $112K after.<\/p>\n This scenario is expected to be the most bullish scenario for a longer 1-2 month rally into October\/November, where a new ATH above $130K could be achieved.<\/p>\n On the technical front, the Bitcoin 4-hour chart shows repeated rejections from the VWAP line, which has acted as strong dynamic resistance.<\/p>\n The most recent attempt to reclaim VWAP at around $113,000 failed, pushing the price back into consolidation.<\/p>\n Source: TradingView\/ Yuriy_Bishko<\/p>\n Despite occasional volume spikes, buyers have not managed to sustain momentum above this resistance zone, signaling that sellers are still in control around current levels.<\/p>\n Unless Bitcoin can break and hold above VWAP with strong volume, the price risks drifting lower toward the next support around $104,600.<\/p>\n For now, the structure leans bearish-to-neutral, with any upside potential heavily dependent on a decisive reclaim of VWAP.<\/p>\n Read original story Bitcoin Futures Cool as Whale Activity Drops Ahead of Key Inflation Data – $105K Retest Next?<\/a> by Anas Hassan<\/a> at Cryptonews.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Bitcoin futures market is cooling, with reduced whale activity and stronger retail influence painting bearish sentiment 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