It\u2019s fitting as the Orioles are drifting into an offseason that will, in many ways, determine the trajectory of the franchise for the next decade and maybe forever that this homestand features these two visitors in particular. <\/p>\n
First you have the Dodgers, the big-money, well-run juggernaut that is playing poorly at the moment but won the World Series last year, that may well win it again this year and will compete at that level for the foreseeable future with the game\u2019s highest payroll ($348.9 million, according to Spotrac) and commitments to keep it high through the decade. <\/p>\n
Now, the Pirates \u2014 near the bottom of the league with an $82.8 million payroll and its standings with a .444 winning percentage \u2014 come to town to represent the other end of the competitive spectrum. <\/p>\n
It wasn\u2019t long ago that the Orioles and Pirates were peers in almost every sense; a spring training game of minor leaguers from both organizations a few seasons ago was referred to as a \u201cBattle of the Rebuilds.\u201d The plight of Rust Belt teams who had to do things the hard way was a shared disadvantage, at least in the Orioles\u2019 mind, before the Angelos family sold to the ownership group that control person David Rubenstein<\/b> recently described as \u201cwell-capitalized.\u201d <\/p>\n
Despite that, Rubenstein has talked often about his wish for a salary cap and a balanced competitive landscape in the MLB. No one outside the top rung of the league\u2019s spenders likes the current landscape much, but absent a collectively bargained change \u2014 which I will not be holding my breath for \u2014 the question that Rubenstein, his peers in the ownership group and executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias<\/b> must answer now is how far they\u2019ll leave the Pirates of the world in the dust in pursuit of teams like the Dodgers. <\/p>\n
Now the Pirates aren\u2019t totally the dregs. They boast an unbelievable rotation led by Paul Skenes, a result of a really strong approach to drafting and developing pitching, but they can\u2019t figure out the hitting side enough to win and don\u2019t spend money that would help cover that deficiency. They were good in the mid-2010s when the Orioles were, but not since, and in this recent Orioles rebuild their paths diverged. <\/p>\n
Back then, though, small-market success like that enjoyed with the Brewers, Guardians and Rays was an aspiration to compete regularly while developing one\u2019s own players, shrewdly turning over expensive assets for younger ones and winning at the margins; that\u2019s the smart way to do it, the argument goes. By and large, even as a moneyed team now, the Orioles haven\u2019t abandoned that \u2014 and that\u2019s OK, to an extent. <\/p>\n
You must be principled, and more good than bad has occurred with the Orioles operating in the mindset they have. The challenge they\u2019re facing \u2014 more so than trying to match free agent millions with the Dodgers, Mets and Yankees \u2014 is that those rich teams are also smart teams. They have player development machines that crank out pitching and high-level hitting prospects, all of whom supplement the major league roster either as call-ups or trade chips. These clubs can pay star free agents more than other teams because their owners are fantastically wealthy and they generate a ton of revenue, but they also build their rosters in a way that they\u2019re constantly balancing that out with homegrown and inexpensive talent. <\/p>\n
It\u2019s not as if they\u2019re just spending money. Money is certainly a part of it, and it needs to be part of things here. But there are executives from the Rays and Brewers running the Dodgers and Mets, respectively. They want to do things the right way and spend money on the best players. <\/p>\n
I think they know in the Warehouse that\u2019s the direction this needs to go. I bet they\u2019d look at these two teams and say comfortably that they\u2019ll never be peers with the Pirates again and probably won\u2019t get to the Dodgers\u2019 spending stratosphere either. As long as they end up closer to the Dodgers than the Pirates, that works for me. <\/p>\n
Ballpark Chatter <\/p>\n
\u201cHe\u2019s really impressed me this season.\u201d \u2013 <\/b>an unnamed scout in Bowie last week about infield prospect Aron Estrada<\/b>. <\/p>\n
The more I see Aron Estrada<\/b>, a switch-hitting, 20-year-old infielder, the more I like \u2014 and obviously I\u2019m not alone. <\/p>\n
He\u2019s got real contact skills and is hitting the ball hard from both sides of the plate, entering the final week of Double-A Chesapeake\u2019s season with a .914 OPS in 22 Double-A games and an .824 OPS in 103 games between there and High-A Aberdeen. His Double-A production, though, feels like a separator. There are just 23 minor leaguers who have at least 80 plate appearances in the high minors at age 20 or younger this season. <\/p>\n
To list them here would be to basically copy and paste a top prospect list, and Estrada compares well in almost every offensive category. <\/p>\n
By the numbers <\/p>\n
3<\/b> <\/p>\n
This is a terrible thing to jinx, but say Trevor Rogers<\/b> makes it through the rest of this season without allowing a home run<\/a> \u2014 which feels like it could happen based on his having only allowed three in 95 2\/3 innings since his May 24 debut. He\u2019d be just the fourth pitcher in the wild-card era to pitch at least 100 innings with three or fewer home runs, according to Baseball-Reference\u2019s Stathead database, and would join an eclectic and notable crew. <\/p>\n Roy Halladay allowed three in 105 1\/3 innings in 2001, Henderson Alvarez<\/b> allowed two in 102 2\/3 innings in 2013 for the Marlins, and Mariano Rivera<\/b>, as a 26-year-old swingman on his way to finishing third in the AL Cy Young race in 1996, allowed just one in 107 2\/3 innings. <\/p>\n Talent Pipeline <\/p>\n Nate George<\/b> <\/p>\n It used to be commonplace for the best hitters in the Orioles\u2019 farm system to climb three levels in a season, and breakout prospect Nate George<\/b>, 19, just wrapped up that type of meteoric season after beginning in the Florida Complex League and ending at High-A Aberdeen. He had an .896 OPS and a 159 wRC+ over the three levels. There were 70 teenagers to get at least 350 plate appearances in the minors this summer. George ranked eighth in OPS and fourth in wRC+, while his 50 steals were sixth-best in that cohort. <\/p>\n For further reading <\/p>\n \u26beHope for the future:<\/b> Danielle and Kyle did a great job capturing a wild game Saturday night<\/a>. It certainly wasn\u2019t the story they had written after the top of the ninth, but if you have to start from scratch, it\u2019s not the worst thing in the world to get a fun outcome like that<\/a>. <\/p>\n