{"id":213990,"date":"2025-09-09T22:53:19","date_gmt":"2025-09-09T22:53:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/213990\/"},"modified":"2025-09-09T22:53:19","modified_gmt":"2025-09-09T22:53:19","slug":"mlb-playoff-watch-key-x-factor-for-each-of-the-top-contending-teams","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/213990\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB playoff watch: Key X-factor for each of the top contending teams"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Who, or what, will make the difference the rest of the way for the teams with the most at stake?<\/p>\n<p>On Friday, we looked at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/6598945\/2025\/09\/05\/mlb-playoff-contending-teams-worries\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the biggest concern<\/a> facing each of the 12 teams in playoff position. Today, we continue to assess the current MLB postseason field, as our writers weigh in on a key X-factor for each of those teams over the final three weeks and into October.<\/p>\n<p>National League<img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-6609496 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/GettyImages-2233615983-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1685\"  \/><\/p>\n<p>      Jacob Misiorowski allowed one run in seven innings against the Pirates on Sunday. (Justin Berl \/ Getty Images)<strong>Brewers: Jacob Misiorowski\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>It will be fascinating to see how the Brewers utilize rookie Jacob Misiorowski this October. He burst onto the scene this summer and made the All-Star team after five career starts. The next act was a lot less riveting. In his first six starts after the Midsummer Classic, Misiorowski posted a 6.45 ERA and completed five innings just once.<\/p>\n<p>His stuff remains eye-popping. The Miz throws a fastball that averages 99 mph and a slider that sits at 94 mph. When he can harness those pitches for strikes, he can be devastating. If he\u2019s right, he can slot into the Brewers\u2019 rotation behind Freddy Peralta and Brandon Woodruff, offering a higher ceiling than fellow starters Quinn Priester and Jose Quintana. Or the team can attempt to use him to lengthen its bullpen, a role in which he excelled at Triple A last year.<\/p>\n<p>He can be a real weapon. The Brewers just need to figure out how to best deploy him. \u2014 Andy McCullough<\/p>\n<p><strong>Phillies: Bryce Harper<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s too easy to focus on Bryce Harper because he\u2019s Bryce Harper, but the Phillies\u2019 star is having a pedestrian season by his standards. He is carrying the lowest OPS he\u2019s had since 2016. All of the underlying metrics look fine; he\u2019s striking out at a rate lower than his career mark and hitting the ball as hard (on average) as usual.<\/p>\n<p>But, since joining the Phillies, Harper has often saved his best for September. He\u2019s hit .265\/.386\/.516 in his first six Septembers with the Phillies \u2014 and that includes 2022, when Harper hit .196 as he tried to regain his timing from injury. (That didn\u2019t affect him come October.)<\/p>\n<p>Maybe it\u2019s harder for Harper to find motivation during the 162-game grind the older he gets, but he often rises to the moment. He can power the Phillies to a first-round bye with a strong September. \u2014 Matt Gelb<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dodgers: The rotation\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>If \u2014 and it\u2019s a major if \u2014 the Dodgers\u2019 rotation can get through the season\u2019s final month unscathed, they might be the best unit in the sport.<\/p>\n<p>Shohei Ohtani still has ace-caliber stuff. Yoshinobu Yamamoto will receive Cy Young Award votes. Blake Snell has shown he\u2019s still one of the most unhittable pitchers in baseball. Tyler Glasnow has shown unhittable flashes. Clayton Kershaw has turned back the clock. Even Emmet Sheehan would be an intriguing postseason starter most years. More than one of these names won\u2019t make starts this October, which goes to show the depth the Dodgers boast. \u2014 Fabian Ardaya<\/p>\n<p><strong>Cubs: Michael Soroka\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>He won\u2019t be the starter the Cubs hoped they were getting at the trade deadline, but as Michael Soroka rehabs, it sounds like his velocity is back and he could help the team out of the bullpen down the stretch. His numbers in that role last season were impressive, and if he can come close to matching them, he could help the team win and give time off to key relievers like Brad Keller and Andrew Kittredge as the Cubs try to stay fresh and healthy heading into the postseason. \u2014 Sahadev Sharma<\/p>\n<p>  <strong>Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>For all the concern about their starting pitching, the Padres won\u2019t go far without more slug from a less-than-intimidating offense. Tatis has been the chief culprit behind the lack of pop; after swatting 13 home runs by late May, he went deep just five times over the next three months.<\/p>\n<p>Still, Tatis has shown the ability to power back up on short notice. He hit seven home runs last September while playing with a stress reaction in his right leg, and he hit four more in the Padres\u2019 first five games of the 2024 postseason. Now, San Diego desperately needs a similar resurgence. Tatis is a supreme defender in right field, but with center fielder Jackson Merrill still in the throes of a sophomore slump, Tatis\u2019 offensive form \u2014 or lack thereof \u2014 will largely determine the team\u2019s trajectory.\u00a0 \u2014 Dennis Lin<\/p>\n<p><strong>Mets: Nolan McLean<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Mets pitcher Nolan McLean looks like a Game 1 starter. The thing is, he has thrown just four major-league starts. Still, he has looked excellent in each outing (1.47 ERA, 0.759 WHIP in 26 1\/3 innings). More to the point, he has pitched like someone who has done this before. If McLean remains this good, it wouldn\u2019t be surprising to see the Mets give him the ball to start a playoff series. They also may have to.\u00a0 \u2014 Will Sammon<\/p>\n<p>American League<img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-6609511 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/GettyImages-2233931569-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1794\"  \/><\/p>\n<p>      Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hit .517\/.576\/.828 over his last seven games. (Jim McIsaac \/ Getty Images)<strong>Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>George Springer will get MVP votes. Jeff Hoffman has been both a carrying force and anxiety inducer at times this year. Bo Bichette leads the majors in hits. But the Blue Jays didn\u2019t give any of them $500 million this spring. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the face of Toronto\u2019s franchise for a reason. At his best, he\u2019s one of the three best hitters in MLB.<\/p>\n<p>Peak Guerrero flashed in July, as he hit .333 with more walks than strikeouts. But a hamstring injury paused the first baseman\u2019s second-half hot streak. The Jays\u2019 offence is deep and dynamic, able to thrive despite merely good play from Guerrero. But if he can regain his elite form, Guerrero can carry the Jays to their first division title in a decade. \u2014 Mitch Bannon\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><strong>Tigers: Parker Meadows<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Paul Sewald and a bundle of other relief pitchers could qualify. But let\u2019s go with Parker Meadows. The outfielder who played elite defense and had an .840 OPS in the final two months of last season has been banged up nearly all year. And when he has been healthy, he hasn\u2019t been the same. He hit .200 in 125 at-bats and graded out at minus-2 Defensive Runs Saved before going on the injured list with a quad strain in late July.<\/p>\n<p>Meadows returned from the IL on Friday, homering in a loss to the White Sox. If the Tigers could get anything close to the best version of him the rest of the way, it changes the complexion of their team. \u2014 Cody Stavenhagen<\/p>\n<p><strong>Astros: Cristian Javier\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Three years ago, Cristian Javier started the second no-hitter in World Series history, finishing a fabulous season that he parlayed into a $64 million contract extension. Javier\u2019s performance dipped in 2023 and Tommy John surgery sidelined him for most of 2024. He has a 1.328 WHIP and 4.43 ERA across his first five starts back. Getting anything close to Javier\u2019s 2022 form will make Houston\u2019s rotation far more formidable behind Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez. \u2014\u00a0Chandler Rome<\/p>\n<p><strong>Yankees: Aaron Judge\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>This time, there will be no Juan Soto, and Giancarlo Stanton can\u2019t do it all by himself. The Yankees need Aaron Judge to put up Aaron Judge numbers in the postseason. They need him to author major moments and to be the catalyst that he largely hasn\u2019t been throughout his postseason career.<\/p>\n<p>In 58 career postseason games, he\u2019s hit just .205 with a .836 OPS \u2014 well shy of his lifetime regular season mark of 1.021. Last postseason wasn\u2019t any better as he hit .184 with three homers and a .752 OPS over 14 games. In his first trip to the World Series, he went 4-for-18 (.222) with one home run.<\/p>\n<p>Then there\u2019s the matter of his defense. After 27 straight games as a DH, Judge returned to right field on Friday \u2014 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/6603956\/2025\/09\/06\/yankees-aaron-judge-right-field-throw\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">and failed his first test<\/a>. The Yankees say they expect he\u2019ll be in the outfield and mostly healed from his right flexor strain by October, but it\u2019s still a question mark. \u2014 Brendan Kuty\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><strong>Red Sox: Offensive streakiness<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The Red Sox lost rookie Roman Anthony for likely the remainder of the regular season last week. It\u2019s a big blow to the lineup, and replacing his .917 OPS since the All-Star break won\u2019t be easy. The Red Sox are still without Wilyer Abreu, who is second on the club with 22 homers, as he works his way back from a calf strain.<\/p>\n<p>They have been one of baseball\u2019s better offensive teams, ranking in the top 10 in average and OPS. But they\u2019ve also had prolonged stretches of streakiness at the plate. Avoiding those slumps could be their biggest X-factor as they try to reach the postseason. \u2014\u00a0Jen McCaffrey<\/p>\n<p><strong>Mariners: Cal Raleigh<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s a reason it\u2019s so hard to be a top run producer as a catcher. The position is extremely demanding, and playing it as often as Cal Raleigh does is bound to take a toll. It\u2019s been a special year for Raleigh, the first primary catcher ever to hit 50 homers in a season. But he entered the weekend at .206\/.296\/.461 since the All-Star break.<\/p>\n<p>It helps that the Mariners have a deeper lineup than they did in the first half, when Raleigh carried them. But they need more from a player who has already given so much \u2014 and if Raleigh can rediscover his first-half form (.259\/.376\/.634), the Mariners have a better chance of outslugging <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/6598945\/2025\/09\/05\/mlb-playoff-contending-teams-worries\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">some of their pitching problems<\/a>. \u2014\u00a0Tyler Kepner<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\">(Top photo of Nolan McLean: Jim McIsaac \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Who, or what, will make the difference the rest of the way for the teams with the most&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":213991,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[41],"tags":[1281,1271,1885,2382,2502,4247,1266,1305,2228,2083,1306,1288,62,1290,67,132,68],"class_list":{"0":"post-213990","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-mlb","8":"tag-boston-red-sox","9":"tag-chicago-cubs","10":"tag-detroit-tigers","11":"tag-houston-astros","12":"tag-los-angeles-dodgers","13":"tag-milwaukee-brewers","14":"tag-mlb","15":"tag-new-york-mets","16":"tag-new-york-yankees","17":"tag-philadelphia-phillies","18":"tag-san-diego-padres","19":"tag-seattle-mariners","20":"tag-sports","21":"tag-toronto-blue-jays","22":"tag-united-states","23":"tag-unitedstates","24":"tag-us"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/115176800668334609","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/213990","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=213990"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/213990\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/213991"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=213990"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=213990"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=213990"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}