{"id":219448,"date":"2025-09-12T00:00:14","date_gmt":"2025-09-12T00:00:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/219448\/"},"modified":"2025-09-12T00:00:14","modified_gmt":"2025-09-12T00:00:14","slug":"93-odds-of-recession-supported-by-hard-data-says-ubs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/219448\/","title":{"rendered":"93% Odds of Recession Supported by \u2018Hard Data,\u2019 Says UBS"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Is the U.S. economy at risk of a recession? According to UBS, \u201chard data\u201d from May to July signals a 93% chance of a recession. UBS\u2019 proprietary factor model utilizes the hard data it used to set the odds and consists of non-survey-based metrics, such as employment, consumption, and industrial production.<\/p>\n<p>Elevate Your Investing Strategy:<\/p>\n<ul style=\"padding-top: 5px;\">\n<li> Take advantage of <a data-link=\"article_promo\" href=\"https:\/\/lp.tipranks.com\/july-2025-50off\/?llf=rss&amp;timer=on&amp;coupon=INTRO50P\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"> TipRanks Premium at 50% off! <\/a> Unlock powerful investing tools, advanced data, and expert analyst insights to help you invest with confidence.\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The model drifted into negative territory in February and has shown sideways movement since May, which \u201csuggests sustained weakness rather than any new acceleration downward,\u201d said Fortune.<\/p>\n<p><strong>UBS Sees \u201cSoggy Growth\u201d but Stops Short of a Recession Forecast<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>However, the bank\u2019s economic team isn\u2019t forecasting a <a data-autolink=\"true\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tipranks.com\/economic-indicators\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">recession<\/a> and expects \u201csoggy growth\u201d from the economy before a recovery in 2026. So far, none of the hard data has decelerated in an alarming fashion, a move that has preceded previous recessions.<\/p>\n<p>UBS combined its hard data with credit markets data and the inverted yield curve, which produced an aggregate recession probability of 52% in July, up from 37% in January. The numbers raise concern, but stocks aren\u2019t letting up with the S&amp;P 500 (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tipranks.com\/index\/spx\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">SPX<\/a>) up by 12% year-to-date.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Stay ahead of macro events with our up-to-the-minute <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tipranks.com\/calendars\/economic\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Economic Calendar<\/strong><\/a><strong> \u2014 filter by impact, country, and more.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tipranks.com\/glossary\/d\/disclaimer-disclosure\" style=\"margin-right: 32px;\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Disclaimer &amp; Disclosure<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tipranks.com\/glossary\/c\/contact-editor\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Report an Issue<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Is the U.S. economy at risk of a recession? According to UBS, \u201chard data\u201d from May to July&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":219449,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[64,79,67,132,68],"class_list":{"0":"post-219448","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-economy","10":"tag-united-states","11":"tag-unitedstates","12":"tag-us"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/115188388608642015","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/219448","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=219448"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/219448\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/219449"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=219448"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=219448"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=219448"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}