{"id":22026,"date":"2025-06-28T14:38:11","date_gmt":"2025-06-28T14:38:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/22026\/"},"modified":"2025-06-28T14:38:11","modified_gmt":"2025-06-28T14:38:11","slug":"not-so-top-heavy-tale-of-two-ceases-bogaerts-shoulder-san-diego-union-tribune","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/22026\/","title":{"rendered":"Not so top heavy; tale of two Ceases; Bogaerts\u2019 shoulder \u2013 San Diego Union-Tribune"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good morning from Cincinnati,<\/p>\n

Mike Shildt evidently has one certain advantage over A.J. Preller and anyone else who is paying attention to the Padres.<\/p>\n

\u201cI don\u2019t lose any sleep,\u201d Shildt said last night when asked about the inability of the top four batters in his lineup to consistently produce.<\/p>\n

That is remarkable because it\u2019s all the rest of us can think about pretty much 24 hours a day.<\/p>\n

\u201cI don\u2019t worry at all about Luis Arraez\u00a0 or Manny Machado or Jackson Merrill or Fernando Tatis (Jr.), because I know who they are, know what they\u2019ve done to put us in position to get to where we\u2019re at now,\u201d Shildt went on to say. \u201cAnd I know they\u2019re gamers. They\u2019re only going to be better in the second half. Manny is headed to an All-Star game. If Luis is not in the top three in the league in hitting at the end of the year, I\u2019ll be surprised. Tatis and Jackson are studs. We feel great about that four.\u201d<\/p>\n

Yes, they are too good to collectively be this unproductive.<\/p>\n

To be clear, it would be difficult to ask much more of Machado. He is batting .295 with an .844 OPS even after going 2-for-22 over the past six games. His 140 wRC+ ranks 14th in the National League.\u00a0 (Weighted runs created-plus is a metric that measures offensive production in which 100 is considered an average major leaguer and 140 is 40 percent better than average.) Machado has hit 10 home runs in his past 128 at-bats. He is hitting a paltry .214 with runners in scoring position over the past 39 games.<\/p>\n

Merrill\u2019s biggest issue has been not being on the field enough, and he can\u2019t be faulted for the two injuries that have caused him to miss 31 games. His .298 batting average and, especially, his .353 on-base percentage are improvements over last season. The Padres would really benefit from a second-half power surge, a la 2024, kicking in any time now.<\/p>\n

The real stumbling blocks to the Padres\u2019 offense getting going have been Arraez and Tatis.<\/p>\n

Tatis\u2019 overall numbers (.258 \/.348\/.450) remain at least somewhat aesthetically pleasing almost entirely because he was playing at an MVP-level for the first five weeks of the season. Over the past eight weeks, he has been just about a league-average offensive performer, as his 97 wRC+ suggests. He has hit .206\/.312\/.360 in that time (since May 2).<\/p>\n

Arraez has started to hit. And it is imperative he keeps racking up singles and doubles and the occasional triple somewhere closer to the .358 rate he did over the course of the 12-game hitting streak that ended last night than to his .273 average before that. Because he neither walks nor hits home runs.<\/p>\n

The Padres reached the midpoint of the season last night.<\/p>\n

Here is what they did in their first 42 games compared to what they have done in their past 39.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

That means the Padres have been among the worst offenses in the major leagues for just about half of this half-season.<\/p>\n

I wrote an analysis of the team at the midway point (here<\/a>) yesterday. One of the points I made in that story was that while there are deficiencies elsewhere in the Padres\u2019 lineup and they are seeking to address some of those leading up to the trade deadline, they don\u2019t have a chance if the core four players don\u2019t start producing.<\/p>\n

The core four have played in 47 games together. They are 20-10 when at least three of them have at least one hit.<\/p>\n

By no means are Shildt\u2019s postgame musings last night an indication he is not aware of the Padres\u2019 biggest issue, which is not scoring enough runs often enough.<\/p>\n

The Padres have one of the best records in the league when scoring three runs or fewer. Problem is, that record is 14-25. They are 30-12 when scoring four or more.<\/p>\n

The magic number for wins is four runs.<\/p>\n

One team (the Rockies) has a losing record when scoring four or more runs in a game this season. The Athletics (.535) are the only other team with a winning percentage below .625 when scoring at least four runs.<\/p>\n

No team has a winning record in games in which they score three or fewer runs.<\/p>\n

The Padres have scored three or fewer runs in 22 of their past 39 games.<\/p>\n

Shildt also knows that the biggest issue creating the team\u2019s biggest issue is that on more nights than not, the top four hitters in the lineup have not been able to produce at the level the team needs them to.<\/p>\n

But Shildt is not prone to publicly lament any shortcomings about his players.<\/p>\n

As I wrote in my game story (here<\/a>) from the Reds\u2019 8-1 victory last night, credit was due to Nick Martinez. The former Padres pitcher took a no-hitter into the ninth inning. His changeup was as devastating as ever. His fastball was moving. Unlike what continues to plague Dylan Cease, Martinez\u2019s pitches were going where he wanted.<\/p>\n

But the Padres\u2019 struggles offensively have gone on too long and extended past just when they face good pitchers.<\/p>\n

And, by the way, good pitchers are what a team faces in the playoffs.<\/p>\n

Also, relative to the best starting pitchers in the major leagues, Martinez is just OK. He entered last night with a 4.40 ERA. He has seven quality starts and five starts in which he allowed four runs without getting to the sixth inning.<\/p>\n

This offense is broken. Another bat acquired via trade can help.<\/p>\n

But the solution is already on hand in the form of the top four batters in the lineup.<\/p>\n

It\u2019ll be OK?<\/p>\n

The Padres are seven games above .500 and a half-game out of the National League\u2019s final playoff spot.<\/p>\n

Their 44-37 record is three games better than they were at the midway point in 2024 when they were in playoff position.<\/p>\n

They were one game above .500 at the All-Star break last year and fell to .500 with a loss in the first game coming out of the break.<\/p>\n

Then they went on a second-half run for the ages. Their 43-20 record was the 12th-best of any team after the All-Star break in the past 25 full seasons.<\/p>\n

The Padres have a bottom-10 offense and a top-10 pitching staff this year. They were middling in both categories at this point last year.<\/p>\n

Their plus-16 run differential is second-lowest among any National League team in playoff contention. Their plus-16 run differential was second-lowest among those in contention at this point last season.<\/p>\n

The Padres do not have Michael King or Yu Darvish and don\u2019t know when Darvish is returning or if King is. They didn\u2019t have Darvish at this point last season and didn\u2019t know if they would.<\/p>\n

So much about the comparisons say the Padres could be \u2014 even should be \u2014 just fine.<\/p>\n

But there appear to be more good teams in the NL this season.<\/p>\n

The precarious nature of their position is illustrated by what they face this weekend.<\/p>\n

The Reds will start two left-handed pitchers (Andrew Abbott and Nick Lodolo) who have dominated the Padres before. And if the Reds win both games, they will move past the Padres in the standings.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Xander Bogaerts sounded conflicted as he discussed the Padres\u2019 outlook.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe had a nice one last year, right?\u201d Bogaerts said yesterday afternoon. \u201cThat was special . When you did it once, it\u2019s always in there. Sometimes chips have to fall certain places to be able to do something remarkable like last year. We did it last year, and we have pretty much the same group.\u201d<\/p>\n

Tale of two Ceases<\/p>\n

Cease\u2019s laboriously uneven season continued with a 93-pitch, four-inning, four-run outing last night.<\/p>\n

This is a concern for the Padres as they head into the second half of the season wondering if he will snap into being the pitcher they were counting on him being.<\/p>\n

What is maddening for him and for them is that he has seemed on the verge of doing so a few times.<\/p>\n

Last night was not without reason to believe in how good Cease is.<\/p>\n

He struck out eight batters in his four innings.<\/p>\n

\u201cI executed in spurts,\u201d he said. \u201cI got a lot of strikeouts. But other moments, I didn\u2019t. I walked guys. Ultimately, that\u2019s what it is. It really is executing. If I execute consistently, I won\u2019t give up three, four runs.\u201d<\/p>\n

Cease is just the ninth pitcher this season to have at least eight strikeouts while going no more than four innings. That is a dubious accomplishment, for sure. But the shortness of the list speaks to how difficult it is to do.<\/p>\n

Last night was the third time Cease has gone four innings and the 10th time in his 17 starts he has not gone beyond the fifth.<\/p>\n

His slider is not breaking as sharply as it has as consistently as it has in past seasons. Left-handers are seeing it better than ever. His fastball is not going where he wants and is still getting hit sometimes when it does, such as on the first of Spencer Steers\u2019 two home runs against him last night.<\/p>\n

He has talked about working on his mechanics and then talked about being \u201ctoo mechanical.\u201d He has talked about rhythm and focus.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt comes down to execution,\u201d Cease said multiple times last night.<\/p>\n

His 4.53 ERA is 0.69 points higher than after 17 starts last season and the highest of his career this far into a campaign.<\/p>\n

\u201cI don\u2019t feel like I\u2019m giving us sort of a chance to win with the consistency as I\u2019d like to, and that\u2019s frustrating,\u201d he said. \u201cBut I\u2019m just gonna keep working. \u2026 I\u2019m just going to take it day-by-day, keep working and try to get in a rhythm as best as I can. I mean, I\u2019ve shown flashes, but it\u2019s really just consistency right now. There really is a lot of season left to make it up.\u201d<\/p>\n

Figuring it out<\/p>\n

Bogaerts was back in the lineup last night, but he was uncertain about one thing.<\/p>\n

The Padres shortstop knows he should not slide head-first anymore to protect his balky left shoulder. But \u2026<\/p>\n

\u201cI think on the stolen bases, it might be harder,\u201d he said. \u201cThe one at home is pretty dumb for me to go head-first at home.\u201d<\/p>\n

Bogaerts\u2019 shoulder began bothering him when he swung a bat early this month. He was pulled early in the Padres\u2019 June 4 game in San Francisco and sat out the next day.<\/p>\n

It was worse when he swung, but he did miss another game before Wednesday.<\/p>\n

Treatment and medicine got the shoulder to what Bogaerts said was \u201cclose to 100%\u201d before the shoulder was aggravated by a slide into second base trying to steal against the Royals last Friday. A headfirst slide on which his shoulder slammed into Nationals catcher Riley Adams\u2019 body Tuesday made it worse.<\/p>\n

Bogaerts fractured a bone in his left shoulder socket last May and missed 48 games. He returned in mid-July and did not experience any discomfort until this month\u2019s issue. There is no structural damage and, according to doctors, it is not uncommon for someone who had a fracture to occasionally have certain movements cause some level of pain.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe know what is aggravating it,\u201d Bogaerts said. \u201cDiving is a big one.\u201d<\/p>\n

Bogaerts is 13-for-14 on steal attempts this season, his last one being the only one on which he was caught. He wants that to continue to be a part of his game. He just can\u2019t quite get his arms around sliding feet first on a steal attempt.<\/p>\n

\u201cOn steals, I feel like I\u2019m going to be out if I go feet first,\u201d he said. \u201cBut I (sometimes) go feet first on doubles and triples.\u201d<\/p>\n

Headfirst slides do not get a player to a bag faster than going feet first. But it feels that way to some, and going headfirst does allow for creativity in sliding.<\/p>\n

\u201cI was stealing a lot in the beginning,\u201d Bogaerts said. \u201cI liked it. But all my steals are headfirst. \u2026 I don\u2019t know. I\u2019ve gotta practice on feet first, but it\u2019s not the same. Diving, it just feels easy.\u201d<\/p>\n

Darvish update<\/p>\n

Yu Darvish is expected to throw in the bullpen here this weekend before it is decided what his next step will be.<\/p>\n

The expectation is that he will make a minor-league rehab start, but the Padres continue to not push the veteran right-hander. The important thing, team sources continue to insist, is that he returns to pitch well in the season\u2019s final two months and the playoffs.<\/p>\n

Darvish, who is working back from elbow discomfort that has sidelined him since the middle of spring training, threw 51 pitches in a simulated game against players at low-A Lake Elsinore on Wednesday.<\/p>\n

Tidbits<\/p>\n