Not very long ago, the notion that San Diego County would have no Republican representation in Congress seemed unfathomable.<\/p>\n
Yet that could be one of the many results of the Democratic push to redraw California\u2019s congressional districts, a proposal that will go to voters in November as Proposition 50<\/a>.<\/p>\n The region, once a Republican bastion, has had at least one GOP member in Congress for more than 75 years<\/a>. Whether that streak is halted \u2014 by no means a given \u2014 in the 2026 elections depends on lots of variables.<\/p>\n In the past, Republicans regularly dominated the San Diego congressional delegation. The county\u2019s changing political demographics whittled that down to one solid GOP district out of five \u2014 the East County-centric 48th district that stretches up into Riverside County held by Rep. Darrell Issa.<\/p>\n As late as 2001, San Diego had four Republicans in the House and only one Democrat.<\/p>\n The 48th is among five California Republican districts Democrats are seeking to flip, with the aid of favorably redrawn boundary lines. The maneuvering would shift Issa\u2019s district to a slightly Democratic-leaning one \u2014 and potentially help Democrats regain the majority in the House of Representatives.<\/p>\n There\u2019s considerable dispute, even among some Democrats, about the appropriateness of suspending the work of California\u2019s independent citizen redistricting commission<\/a> for a few election cycles.<\/p>\n But Gov. Gavin Newsom and Proposition 50 itself make clear the measure is a response to the opening gambit by Texas Republicans to redraw that state\u2019s districts at the behest of President Donald Trump in an effort to gain five seats and retain the GOP\u2019s tenuous control of the House.<\/p>\n Should he run, Issa would face a much bigger challenge than in his current district. But no one should count him out.<\/p>\n For one thing, voters might reject the new maps in November.<\/p>\n If they approve, the new 48th would still include much of Issa\u2019s current territory, where he has been elected three times (in addition to serving 18 years in a different district). However, the new boundaries would exclude some East County communities and pick up Democratic-leaning areas in the Coachella Valley, especially Palm Springs.<\/p>\n As one of the wealthiest members of Congress, Issa has the resources to largely self-finance a big campaign, but he\u2019s also a proven fundraiser.<\/p>\n Further, there\u2019s the potential for a costly and bruising primary battle among two high-profile Democrats, Ammar Campa-Najjar and Marni von Wilpert, that could leave the emerging candidate wounded while Issa likely will face negligible Republican opposition, if that.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s not a slam dunk,\u201d Thad Kousser, political science professor at UC San Diego, said of the potential 48th district election.<\/p>\n \u201cThis doesn\u2019t mean five free seats for Democrats,\u201d he added about Proposition 50. \u201cThis is five Democratic chances.\u201d<\/p>\n Still, Issa\u2019s staunchly conservative record and loyalty to Trump won\u2019t likely sit well with most voters in the proposed new 48th district.<\/p>\n In 2024, President Donald Trump won in the current district by more than 15 percentage points (Issa won by nearly 19 points). In the proposed new 48th, former Vice President Kamala Harris won by nearly 3 percentage points<\/p>\n Democrats have some difficult sorting out to do before they take on Issa. There\u2019s angst among some party members over whether to support von Wilpert, a San Diego City Council member and former deputy city attorney, or Campa-Najjar, a three-time candidate, part-time university professor and an officer in the U.S. Navy Reserve.<\/p>\n Von Wilpert has won in a suburban, north inland San Diego council district previously held by Republicans. Last year, von Wilpert ran for re-election unopposed.<\/p>\n Campa-Najjar had worked in the Obama administration and ran for Congress twice. He lost by just over three points in 2018 to then-Rep. Duncan D. Hunter, who was embroiled in a scandal over the personal use of campaign funds that eventually forced him from office.<\/p>\n Campa-Najjar then lost in the same East County Republican district to Issa in 2020 by more than seven points. Two years later, he lost an election for mayor in heavily Democratic Chula Vista to then-Councilmember John McCann, a Republican.<\/p>\n Despite an advantage in name identification, Campa-Najjar\u2019s losing record has weighed on Democrats\u2019 minds and von Wilpert has made at least indirect references to that. Campa-Najjar has pointed out he did well in Republican areas and won tens of thousands of votes in parts of the new 48th, where von Wilpert has not run.<\/p>\n As much as anything, the politics of the Democratic match up could be affected by Campa-Najjar\u2019s ties to the wealthy and influential Jacobs family. He has been yearslong partners with Rep. Sara Jacobs, granddaughter of Irwin Jacobs, co-founder of telecommunications giant Qualcomm. Irwin and the late Joan Jacobs are legendary for their philanthropic and political donations, locally and nationwide.<\/p>\n The pair had contributed tens of thousands of dollars to committees that have supported Campa-Najjar. Not only could such largess help Campa-Najjar in this race, it could influence whether and who the local Democratic Party and Democratic National Campaign Committee get behind in the primary.<\/p>\n San Diego\u2019s current four Democratic districts also would experience substantial boundary changes if Proposition 50 passes, but not to the potential game-changing effect facing Issa. The incumbents \u2014 Mike Levin, Scott Peters, Juan Vargas and Jacobs \u2014 should be safe, though the Democratic advantage in Peters\u2019 50th district shrinks considerably.<\/p>\n Given the nationwide stakes in the redistricting derby, a Democratic sweep in San Diego would be a footnote at best, likely only of local interest.<\/p>\n And judging from history, it likely won\u2019t last forever.<\/p>\n