A meager snowpack in the Rocky Mountains last winter added to the strains on the river. The researchers analyzed the latest federal data and found that if the coming winter is just as dry, the river\u2019s major reservoirs would approach critically low levels unless there are major reductions in water usage. <\/p>\n
\u201cThe results are grim,\u201d the experts wrote in the report<\/a>, which was released Thursday. If next year turns out to be a repeat of this year, they wrote, total water use would exceed the river\u2019s natural flow by at least 3.6 million acre feet \u2014 nearly as much as California used in all last year<\/a>. <\/p>\n Under such a scenario, the region\u2019s water use would again exceed the river\u2019s flow by more than one-fourth. <\/p>\n The researchers said a snowy winter could always bring some relief. But they noted that the federal government\u2019s latest seasonal forecast<\/a> says the Southwest will probably have above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation over the next several months.<\/p>\n They called for the Interior Department, which oversees the dams and management of the river, to \u201ctake immediate action.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cAvoiding this possible outcome requires immediate and substantial reductions,\u201d the researchers wrote. \u201cTaking steps now to decrease consumptive uses across the Basin will reduce the need to implement draconian measures in the following years.\u201d<\/p>\n A tour boat cruises on Lake Powell in Glen Canyon National Recreation Area near Page, Ariz. The reservoir on the Colorado River has declined in recent years and is at less than one-third of its capacity.<\/p>\n (Rebecca Noble \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n Near Las Vegas, Lake Mead, the nation\u2019s largest reservoir, is now just 31% full.<\/p>\n Upstream from the Grand Canyon, Lake Powell, the country\u2019s second-largest reservoir, is at 29% of capacity.<\/p>\n Federal officials have said they want to keep Lake Powell well above a point where water could pass downstream only through Glen Canyon Dam\u2019s low-level bypass tubes<\/a>.<\/p>\n Officials say those four 8-foot-wide steel tubes could create a bottleneck that limits how much water makes it to California, Arizona, Nevada and Mexico. Last year, federal officials discovered damage<\/a> inside the tubes that could further restrict water flow when reservoir levels are low.<\/p>\n The researchers carried out their analysis looking at what they called \u201crealistically accessible water\u201d in Lake Mead and Lake Powell \u2014 using critical thresholds established by federal managers. <\/p>\n \u201cA near term crisis is unfolding before our eyes,\u201d the researchers wrote in a blog post<\/a> announcing the report. \u201cThe gap between ongoing water use and the reality of how much water actually flows in the Colorado River poses a serious near term threat.\u201d<\/p>\n After a series of dry years, heavy snowpack in the Rocky Mountains in 2023 brought some relief to the depleted reservoirs. That was followed by near-average river flow in 2024 compared with the last quarter-century. But this year, the snowmelt runoff in the river\u2019s upper basin was only about 70% of the average.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n