{"id":232400,"date":"2025-09-16T23:01:16","date_gmt":"2025-09-16T23:01:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/232400\/"},"modified":"2025-09-16T23:01:16","modified_gmt":"2025-09-16T23:01:16","slug":"oscar-predictions-feinberg-forecast-post-venice-telluride-tiff-emmys","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/232400\/","title":{"rendered":"Oscar Predictions Feinberg Forecast: Post-Venice\/Telluride\/TIFF\/Emmys"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n\tA NOTE FROM SCOTT<\/strong> With the 82nd Venice, 52nd Telluride and 50th Toronto film festivals and the 77th Primetime Emmy Awards now in the rearview mirror, the focus of the awards-industrial complex \u2014\u00a0journalists, publicists and talent \u2014\u00a0has shifted fully to the race to the 98th Oscars.<\/p>\n

\n\tSince our last check-in, Chlo\u00e9 Zhao<\/strong>\u2019s Hamnet (Focus) solidified its frontrunner status by winning Toronto\u2019s audience award<\/a>, with Frankenstein and Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (both Netflix) placing second and third, respectively. Toronto\u2019s audience award is often predictive of best picture Oscar traction \u2014\u00a0Chariots of Fire, American Beauty, Slumdog Millionaire, The King\u2019s Speech, 12 Years a Slave, Green Book and Zhao\u2019s 2020 film Nomadland all won the former and went on to win the latter \u2014 but not always (last year\u2019s winner, The Life of Chuck, faces an uphill climb this season).<\/p>\n

\n\tVenice, meanwhile, awarded its top prize<\/a>, the Golden Lion, to Father Mother Sister Brother (Mubi). Among its other winners: Benny Safdie<\/strong> was named best director for The Smashing Machine (A24) and Toni Servillo<\/strong> was chosen as best actor for La Grazia (Mubi).<\/p>\n

\n\tBack in LA, journalists who were not in Venice, including myself, have just seen Kathryn Bigelow<\/strong>\u2019s A House of Dynamite (Netflix). A directing tour-de-force and true ensemble piece, it will spark the same sort of concern and conversation about the proliferation of nuclear weapons that the 1983 ABC TV movie The Day After<\/a> \u2014 one of the most watched TV programs of all time\u00a0\u2014 did two generations ago.<\/p>\n

\n\tPaul Thomas Anderson<\/strong>\u2019s One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) has also begun screening in LA. Many journalists caught it last week \u2014\u00a0I was still in Toronto, so I will be seeing it later this week \u2014\u00a0and it unspooled for Academy members on Saturday night. Other member screenings last weekend included Kiss of the Spider Woman (Roadside), with Jennifer Lopez<\/strong> in attendance for a post-screening Q&A, and the documentary feature Riefenstahl (Kino Lorber).<\/p>\n

\n\tAnd, ahead of the Oct. 1 submission deadline, the best international feature Oscar competition is continuing to shape up. The most significant recent news related to that is Brazil\u2019s submission<\/a> of The Secret Agent (Neon), which has been playing through the roof at festival and industry screenings, with writer\/director Kleber Mendon\u00e7a Filho<\/strong> and lead actor Wagner Moura<\/strong> both looking like very strong contenders.<\/p>\n

\n\tAdditionally, Poland entered<\/a> Kafka (still seeking U.S. distribution), the latest film from the great Agnieszka Holland<\/strong>, who has previously had films chosen to represent Poland (2011\u2019s In Darkness, which was nominated, and 2017\u2019s Spoor), West Germany (1985\u2019s Angry Harvest, which was nominated) and the Czech Republic (2020\u2019s Charlatan, which was shortlisted).<\/p>\n

\n\tPlease remember: my forecasts do not necessarily reflect my personal preferences. My aim is not to advocate for what I think the members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences should do, but rather to project what they will do. I arrive at my projections by screening many films, analyzing their campaigns, speaking with voters and studying relevant history and stats.<\/p>\n