{"id":237764,"date":"2025-09-19T01:42:11","date_gmt":"2025-09-19T01:42:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/237764\/"},"modified":"2025-09-19T01:42:11","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T01:42:11","slug":"recession-signal-triggered-by-leading-economic-index","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/237764\/","title":{"rendered":"Recession Signal Triggered by Leading Economic Index"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The Conference Board\u2019s (TCB) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tipranks.com\/calendars\/economic\/leading-economic-index-final-6555\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Leading Economic Index<\/a> (LEI), which signals potential inflection points in the economy and where growth is headed in the near term, has triggered a <a data-autolink=\"true\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tipranks.com\/economic-indicators\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">recession<\/a> signal as the index continues to fall.<\/p>\n<p>Elevate Your Investing Strategy:<\/p>\n<ul style=\"padding-top: 5px;\">\n<li> Take advantage of <a data-link=\"article_promo\" href=\"https:\/\/lp.tipranks.com\/july-2025-50off\/?llf=rss&amp;timer=on&amp;coupon=INTRO50P\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"> TipRanks Premium at 50% off! <\/a> Unlock powerful investing tools, advanced data, and expert analyst insights to help you invest with confidence.\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In August, the LEI fell by 0.5%, the largest monthly decline since April. The LEI factors in several financial and non-financial components, such as the interest rate spread, initial jobless claims, building permit volume, and credit data.<\/p>\n<p><strong>LEI Decline Signals Recession Risk <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Through the six months ended August, the LEI has now declined by 2.8%, triggering a\u00a0recession\u00a0signal in the process. The signal is triggered when the LEI\u2019s annualized six-month growth rate drops below 4.1% and when the six-month diffusion index reaches or drops below 50. The diffusion index tracks the extent of decline within the LEI\u2019s components.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cA major driver of this slowdown has been higher tariffs, which already trimmed growth in H1 2025 and will continue to be a drag on GDP growth in the second half of this year and in H1 2026,\u201d said TCB Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators Justyna Zabinska-La Monica.<\/p>\n<p>At the same time, TCB isn\u2019t calling for a recession just yet, as the LEI has flashed false recession signals in the past. However, the organization expects 2025 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tipranks.com\/calendars\/economic\/gdp-yoy-5960\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">gross domestic product<\/a> (GDP) growth of 1.6%, down from 2.8% in 2024.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Stay ahead of macro events with our up-to-the-minute <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tipranks.com\/calendars\/economic\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Economic Calendar<\/strong><\/a><strong> \u2014 filter by impact, country, and more.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tipranks.com\/glossary\/d\/disclaimer-disclosure\" style=\"margin-right: 32px;\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Disclaimer &amp; Disclosure<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tipranks.com\/glossary\/c\/contact-editor\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Report an Issue<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Conference Board\u2019s (TCB) Leading Economic Index (LEI), which signals potential inflection points in the economy and where&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":237765,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[64,79,67,132,68],"class_list":{"0":"post-237764","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-economy","10":"tag-united-states","11":"tag-unitedstates","12":"tag-us"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/115228425803720937","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/237764","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=237764"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/237764\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/237765"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=237764"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=237764"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=237764"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}