This column originally appeared in The Politics Brief,<\/b> our weekly newsletter on the people, power and policies that shape New Yorkers’ lives.<\/p>\n
Sign up<\/a> to get the full version where you can ask questions, share news tips and weigh in on the conversation. Hits inboxes on Wednesdays.<\/p>\n The Empire State is alright.<\/p>\n More voters think New York is headed in the right direction than those who don\u2019t, according to a new poll \u2014 a positive sign for incumbent Democrats and an indication that discontent with Washington is making New Yorkers feel better about the status of things in their home state.<\/p>\n A Siena poll released this week showed 42% of the 802 voters surveyed said the state is on the right track compared to 41% who say we\u2019re headed in the wrong direction. That\u2019s a statistical tie \u2014 the margin of error for the poll is 4.2% \u2014 but it\u2019s the first time in four years that the measure is positive.<\/p>\n \u201cTo me, this is sort of a combination of a fiscal and a political question because if you like the political leader, you tend to think things are moving in the right direction,\u201d poll spokesperson Steven Greenberg said.<\/p>\n It\u2019s also a measure of optimism (or pessimism) about the economy.<\/p>\n \u201cIt really tells you what the voters\u2019 mood is,\u201d said Fred Thiele, a former state assemblymember.<\/p>\n And that mood is that people are feeling better about their lives at home than they are about the direction of the country as a whole, he said. Siena found 59% of New Yorkers surveyed thought the country is heading in the wrong direction, compared to 33% who think it\u2019s on the right track. The polling on that question has been consistent for roughly a year.<\/p>\n This tidal picture of the electorate is important for both parties as they plot courses in next year\u2019s state elections. Democrats hope President Donald Trump\u2019s actions will sour voters on the Republican brand. Republicans, meanwhile, hope voters will be more focused on problems at home and give GOP candidates a shot to tackle persistent talking points about crime and people moving out of the state.<\/p>\n New York\u2019s population increased in 2024 due to international immigration. But more than 120,000 people moved from New York to other states than the reverse. Republicans argue they were driven out by high taxes and the cost of living.<\/p>\n Thiele caucused with both Republicans and Democrats during his three decades as a state lawmaker. He said \u201cblank\u201d voters \u2014 those who aren\u2019t in a party \u2014 are a decisive force in New York elections. Recent faceoffs between Gov. Kathy Hochul and Trump have helped sharpen the contrast between the policies of the state and federal governments.<\/p>\n The Siena poll found Trump\u2019s favorability rating slipped this month to 34%-61%, the lowest point since his 2024 re-election. Hochul\u2019s rose to 45%-42%, its highest point since last January.<\/p>\n \u201cYou\u2019ve got, in the public\u2019s mind, this juxtaposition between Hochul and Trump,\u201d Thiele said, noting Trump\u2019s threat to send the National Guard to cities. \u201cHochul has been a counterbalance to that. He goes down, she goes up.\u201d<\/p>\n We want to hear from you<\/b><\/p>\n Is New York on the right track or heading in the wrong direction?<\/p>\n We’ll share responses in next week’s newsletter. (Sign up<\/a>!)<\/p>\n This week in New York politics<\/b><\/p>\n\n