Social media is a place that is simultaneously vitriolic and anonymous, which can lead to some unusual claims, opinions and statements.\u00a0 One common fodder in the MLB-sphere frequently surrounds whether or not the team manager is \u201con the hot seat\u201d.\u00a0 We\u2019ve started to see some of that speculation here in St. Louis, and it got me wondering.<\/p>\n
With the Cardinals, the data in evidence does not suggest a manager change is imminent.\u00a0 Beat reporters all appear to \u201cexpect\u201d Oli to be retained, and the Cardinals themselves official statement on the matter is incorporated by simply pointing to the contract with Oli that runs through the end of the 2026 season.<\/p>\n
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None of that assuages the internet, though, and the chat boards run rampant with speculation of the demise of multiple managers.\u00a0 We all know that contract guaranteed the money more than it guaranteed the spot. \u00a0Social media already has the Met\u2019s manager and the Braves managers fired.\u00a0 The Nats got an early start on this action.\u00a0 But what about Oli?\u00a0 Here are the pros and cons of such a move.\u00a0 By the way, all this analysis is by extension inclusive of his staff.\u00a0 It\u2019s what they\u2019ve done, as much as what he has done.<\/p>\n
Reasons to retain Oli and his staff<\/p>\n
There is that contract.\u00a0 Why would they want to pay 2 managers? One to manage and one to not.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
A new manager won\u2019t make much difference until the talent is changed.\u00a0 Why introduce what is tantamount to a distraction?<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
He seems to have the support of the clubhouse.\u00a0 This is tempered with \u2026 we don\u2019t know how much change the new regime plans to introduce to that clubhouse.\u00a0 The more change they intend, the less this matters.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
The team culture values continuity.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
Who could do better and how would we know?<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
Reasons to consider a change<\/p>\n
There is the small matter of 3 consecutive disappointing seasons.\u00a0 How many do they get?\u00a0 Someone once said \u2013 the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
This group of coaches knew going in that developing at the MLB level was crucial.\u00a0 Oli himself described it early season as they want to learn and improve, so they are better later in the season than going in.\u00a0 Walker, Gorman, Pallante, Scott, Saggese, Liberatore.\u00a0 Who got better as the season went on? Anyone?<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
The trend in fundamentals in the second half was pretty ragged.\u00a0 Base running mistakes, throwing to the wrong base, missing cut-off men, poor communication leading to plays not made.\u00a0 These are execution issues more than raw talent and the trend was decidedly in the wrong direction.\u00a0\u00a0 And the whole leaning into bunting thing with a team that can\u2019t bunt. What was up with that? <\/p>\n<\/li>\n
It really isn\u2019t that unusual for a new executive team to bring in their own field personnel. It\u2019s not required, but not that strange either.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
Tactically, Oli does OK. But, he seems to struggle with assembling match-ups that maximize player contributions. That\u2019s almost a requirement in the game today, especially for small market teams.\u00a0 How much of this is a talent issue and how much of this is a line-up construction issue is unclear.\u00a0 <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
So, really, one can look at this situation and conclude that Oli and his staff should be retained or that they should be dismissed and each side can have some logical basis for said conclusion.\u00a0 But what we don\u2019t know is how much change the new management team envisions and how fast they intend to move.<\/p>\n
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If they see a multi-year rebuild centered on prospect acquisition and development, keeping the existing major league staff intact makes most sense, for now.\u00a0 If they intend to re-work the major league roster quickly and deeply, then perhaps bringing in a new management team is appropriate.\u00a0 I suspect Oli and his staff face a grim reality.\u00a0 Just as they look at trading players in the light of \u201cWill this player be with the Cardinals during the next winning era\u201d, upper management likely looks at the field manager and coaching staff the same way, and just as likely concludes that they will not.<\/p>\n
Should some staff changes be expected?<\/p>\n
This might be the more likely outcome, as front offices have tended toward giving less sway to the Manager regarding who staffs key positions such as Pitching Coach, Hitting Coach, etc. I think even in today\u2019s game, the Bench Coach is tied directly to the Manager, but others less so.<\/p>\n
With the Pitching Coach, the reality is that Dusty Blake has been on the job three years and none of those years has been particularly good. In fairness, the talent level has been sub-par but Pitching Coaches with good talent and good outcomes typically retain their job a lot longer that Pitching Coaches with poor talent and poor outcomes. As the Cardinals trend younger in the pitching staff, they may determine an early change here is necessary to achieve a new direction.<\/p>\n
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With the Hitting Coach, the story is much the same. As the talent deteriorated, so did the outcomes. We\u2019ve seen that under multiple hitting coaches recently. It would be a bit unusual to fire a Hitting Coach less than a year into the job, but again, they may want to go a different direction and with younger players coming through the pipeline, they may wish to keep a link with them. One person to keep an eye on \u2026 Springfield hitting coach Casey Chenoweth.<\/p>\n
I\u2019m not 100% sure when the regime change occurs. The day after the season ends, maybe? Traditionally, organizational meetings occur the last homestand and<\/p>\n
Conclusion<\/p>\n
One thing that should probably not be discounted. The Cardinals had a pretty solid coaching staff that melted down in 2021-2022, and it seems at times that they still feel the ripple effects of that. Shildt was fired unceremoniously at the end of 2021, with no plan in place. Maddux and Albert left unexpectedly at the end of 2023. It is not ordinary that both the PC and HC walk away. Both landed other gigs almost immediately, which tells us they weren\u2019t just tired of coaching or in need of a break, the issue was here in St. Louis. All this left the Cardinals reeling without a plan. They ended up with development opportunities in the field staff ranks, with both Oli and Dusty getting their first MLB experience in 2023. Runway runs out for these guys, too, no?<\/p>\n
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I don\u2019t fully expect any sweeping change, although some incremental ones should probably be expected as organic change occurs. But I would not be shocked, either. The key for me is how aggressive Chaim Bloom intends to be. That is an unknown for me, but I suspect we will begin to find out quite quickly.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Social media is a place that is simultaneously vitriolic and anonymous, which can lead to some unusual claims,…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":241748,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[41],"tags":[129073,1266,129072,345,62,129071,106713,67,132,68],"class_list":{"0":"post-241747","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-mlb","8":"tag-liberatore","9":"tag-mlb","10":"tag-pallante","11":"tag-social-media","12":"tag-sports","13":"tag-team-manager","14":"tag-the-cardinals","15":"tag-united-states","16":"tag-unitedstates","17":"tag-us"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/115237355837608796","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/241747","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=241747"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/241747\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/241748"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=241747"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=241747"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=241747"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}