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How a La Ni\u00f1a winter compares to El Ni\u00f1o<\/p>\n
The La Ni\u00f1a climate pattern is one of the main drivers of weather in the U.S. and the world, especially in late fall, winter and early spring.<\/p>\n
STAFF VIDEO, USA TODAY<\/p>\n
The Climate Prediction Center<\/a> is calling for a warmer-than-normal, more mild fall across New York, but the return of La Ni\u00f1a could complicate the outlook for winter<\/a>.<\/p>\n La Ni\u00f1a winters often bring more frequent swings in the jet stream, opening the door for bursts of colder air and stormier periods that might not be reflected in the broad seasonal outlook.<\/p>\n Forecasters expect a transition from standard ocean temperatures to La Ni\u00f1a<\/a>, with a 71% chance by December, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.<\/a><\/p>\n How does La Ni\u00f1a influence New York winters?<\/p>\n La Ni\u00f1a tends to shift the jet stream northward. For the Northeast, this historically means colder-than-average temperatures and above-average snowfall. It also increases the likelihood of polar air intrusions \u2014 when the polar vortex, a ring of strong winds that normally keeps Arctic air bottled up near the North Pole, weakens or wobbles, allowing frigid air to spill south into the United States, often bringing freezing temperatures and significant snowfall.<\/p>\n In upstate New York, La Ni\u00f1a winters often are influenced by strong westerly to northwesterly winds over the Great Lakes, which can enhance lake-effect snow<\/a> for cities like Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse. If the lakes remain unfrozen later into winter, snow events can be more intense and more frequent.<\/p>\n In November 2022, Buffalo\u2019s record-setting lake-effect snowstorm occurred during a La Ni\u00f1a winter, fitting this classic pattern: cold northwesterly winds over Lake Erie dumped several feet of snow in just a few days.<\/p>\n In New York City and Long Island, La Ni\u00f1a does not usually produce more snow. Coastal storms, or nor\u2019easters, can sometimes track farther north during La Ni\u00f1a, bringing more rain than snow. However, occasional cold snaps can line up with storms, so New York may still see notable snow \u2014 just less consistently than upstate.<\/p>\n