{"id":254137,"date":"2025-09-25T17:45:14","date_gmt":"2025-09-25T17:45:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/254137\/"},"modified":"2025-09-25T17:45:14","modified_gmt":"2025-09-25T17:45:14","slug":"aztecs-were-analytical-before-it-was-cool-and-sean-lewis-plans-to-stay-aggressive","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/254137\/","title":{"rendered":"Aztecs were analytical before it was cool, and Sean Lewis plans to stay aggressive"},"content":{"rendered":"

There was a time when going for it on fourth down made a football coach a character worthy of being depicted in a Kenny Rogers song. A gambler if you made it more times than not, or perhaps a 20th-century fool if you didn\u2019t.<\/p>\n

There was no in-between.<\/p>\n

However, with the use of analytics becoming ubiquitous across college athletics, fourth-down attempts and conversions are skyrocketing.<\/p>\n

According to CBS Sports, Week 0\/1 this season set a new Football Bowl Subdivision record with 377 fourth-down tries, with teams converting 54.3% into first downs.<\/p>\n

Aztecs head coach Sean Lewis went for it four times against Stony Brook that week in a 42-0 victory, with SDSU converting three of those attempts and scoring two touchdowns.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe use analytics quite a bit,\u201d Lewis said. \u201cThrough the support of the administration, we use Championship Analytics Inc. which isn\u2019t unique. There\u2019s a lot of teams that are using that.\u201d<\/p>\n

Indeed, the patented CAI Game Book<\/a> is considered football\u2019s analytical bible. Its creator, Michael McRoberts, is a lifetime football fan with a master\u2019s degree in bioengineering from Clemson University. He spent decades working as a statistician in the financial sector before applying his statistical knowledge to help professional and college football teams improve their game management decisions.<\/p>\n

Today, CAI consults with more than 100 football teams, including teams from the NFL and 22 collegiate conferences.<\/p>\n

According to CAI, last season saw a record 1,626 conversion attempts, with offenses staying on the field for 25.4% of fourth downs, also a record.<\/p>\n

In 2024, Lewis\u2019 first year, the Aztecs finished tied for 15th in the FBS in fourth-down attempts (32) and tied for 24th in fourth-down conversions (17). Among Mountain West schools, only Air Force (36) went for it more often on fourth down.\u00a0 Air Force converted on 23 of those attempts.<\/p>\n

\u201cDepending upon the opponent, depending upon how we feel the game is going to be played, we work part of our weekly preparation with building out the Game Book,\u201d Lewis said. \u201cSo we make those decisions going into each game knowing how aggressive we\u2019re going to be and where we\u2019re going to be in those spots.\u201d<\/p>\n

The game script in a 34-0 drubbing of Cal at Snapdragon Stadium last Saturday<\/a> didn\u2019t call for Lewis to keep his foot on the gas.<\/p>\n

\u201cI was a little less aggressive this past week when the book said there were a couple times we should have gone for two,\u201d he said. \u201cBut I didn\u2019t want to give any sort of momentum back to the other sideline with the way our defense was playing.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Aztecs\u2019 defense carried the day with a goal-line stand on the Golden Bears\u2019 opening drive and a pair of third-quarter takeaways for touchdowns \u2014 a 35-yard fumble return by safety Dwayne McDougle and a 97-yard interception return by cornerback Chris Johnson.<\/p>\n

\u201cAs little as that could be, one point the other way,\u201d Lewis said. \u201cI\u2019ve been in enough wonky deals to be like, \u2018Hey, we\u2019re going to be loyal to winning in that regard.\u2019<\/p>\n

\u201cYou go for one versus making it a 20-point or 28-point game, and it\u2019s four possessions left at that point in time as you look up at the clock,\u201d he said. \u201cAgain, the rep from CAI is like, \u2018Coach, you know you need to\u2019 \u2026 I\u2019m like, \u2018I get it.\u2019<\/p>\n

\u201cThe data says that, but my guys were telling me this, right?\u201d<\/p>\n

Lewis plans to maintain his \u201cdefault aggressive\u201d approach: \u201cWe lean on that, and you know again, by personality when you cross the 50, we\u2019re going to be a little bit more aggressive in those ranges, in those areas.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"AztecsAztecs coach Rocky Long in 2017. (Hayne Palmour IV \/ San Diego Union-Tribune)
\nRocky\u2019s road to success<\/p>\n

It was just over a decade ago when Rocky Long, in his second season as SDSU\u2019s coach, caused a national stir after saying during fall camp that he might go for every fourth down once the Aztecs were inside their opponents\u2019 50-yard line.<\/p>\n

Talk-show hosts weighed in from all directions. Math geeks saw an opportunity to validate their formulas. Some football people believed Long had gone mad.<\/p>\n

Long explained to the Union-Tribune after practice one day: \u201cI have people, mathematicians, economists, and they\u2019re sending me their papers. And I\u2019m reading them. They have formulas that estimate this and that. They are telling you that, mathematically, it is much better in certain positions to go for it on fourth down than it is in others.<\/p>\n

\u201cAnd then I get the emails where everybody is saying I\u2019m crazy and stupid because football is a game of field possession and toughness and this and that.\u201d<\/p>\n

With the help of SDSU business professor Jim Lackritz, Long devised a chart based on an algorithm that determined when the Aztecs should go for it on fourth down or attempt a two-point conversion after a touchdown. The chart predated McRoberts\u2019 system by a year.<\/p>\n

In 2012, SDSU finished tied for 17th nationally in fourth-down conversions (16); tied for 33rd nationally in fourth-down attempts (24); and tied for 16th nationally in fourth-down conversion percentage (66.7%).<\/p>\n

The Aztecs won the first of three Mountain West championships under long.<\/p>\n

\"SanSan Diego State Aztecs take the field before their game against the Stony Brook Seawolves at Snapdragon Stadium on Thursday, Aug. 28, 2025 in San Diego, CA. (Meg McLaughlin \/ The San Diego Union-Tribune)
\nWe\u2019ve come a long way<\/p>\n

Lewis was recruited as a quarterback, but converted to tight end under Wisconsin coach Barry Alvarez, a College Football Hall of Famer.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt was quite a bit different, especially when I was a player,\u201d Lewis said. \u201cNone of this was a thing. It was more gut. It was more feel.<\/p>\n

\u201cPlaying for Coach Alvarez, it was run the darn ball and end every possession with a kick and play to the defense as a former defensive coordinator, right? And that worked quite a bit, actually.\u201d<\/p>\n

But everything must evolve or become obsolete, and analytics have helped turn the once-risky into routine.<\/p>\n

Exhibit A: Just four minutes into the game last Saturday against Clemson, Syracuse head coach Fran Brown called a successful onside kick<\/a> with the Orange already leading 7-0. It stunned the Tigers and set the tone for a 34-21 win, the first in program history at Death Valley.<\/p>\n

Lewis praised the move this week.<\/p>\n

\u201cSyracuse took advantage of something they saw on tape early on with the surprise onside kick,\u201d he said.\u00a0\u201cYou\u2019re always looking for potential chinks in the armor that we can exploit and create an advantage. It\u2019s all gamesmanship.\u201d<\/p>\n

Lewis has adapted to analytics during his coaching journey.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s a new tool that we all have, and I think like any new tool, whether it\u2019s analytics in the Game Book for us or it\u2019s artificial intelligence for us as a society, it\u2019s about how familiar can you get with it?\u201d he said. \u201cWhat\u2019s your level of comfort and what\u2019s the proper application where you\u2019re still staying true to yourself? What puts you and your team in the best position to win?\u201d<\/p>\n

Coaches have never been more aggressive, and now, if they make the wrong call, they can do what the rest of us have been doing for thousands of years: Blame math.<\/p>\n

BOX: They\u2019re going for it<\/p>\n

The Aztecs have gone for it on fourth down eight times already this season, converting half their attempts. Here\u2019s a look at each one:<\/p>\n

Game 1: SDSU 42, Stony Brook 0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Down and distance (time remaining):<\/strong> Fourth-and-2 from Stony Brook\u2019s 27 (7:33 left in first quarter)<\/p>\n

What happened:<\/strong> Lucky Sutton 2-yard run, first down<\/p>\n

Drive result (score):<\/strong> Touchdown (SDSU 7, Stony Brook 0)<\/p>\n

Down and distance (time remaining):<\/strong> Fourth-and-4 from Stony Brook\u2019s 32 (7:29 remaining in third quarter)<\/p>\n

What happened:<\/strong> Jayden Denegal pass incomplete to Jordan Napier<\/p>\n

Drive result (score):<\/strong> Turnover on downs (San Diego State 20, Stony Brook 0)<\/p>\n

Down and distance (time remaining):\u00a0<\/strong>Fourth-and-goal from Stony Brook\u2019s 2 (1:43 remaining in third quarter)<\/p>\n

What happened: <\/strong>Sutton 2-yard run<\/p>\n

Drive result (score):<\/strong> Touchdown (San Diego State 28, Stony Brook 0)<\/p>\n

Down and distance (time remaining):\u00a0<\/strong>Fourth-and-goal from Stony Brook\u2019s 1 (11:08 remaining in game)<\/p>\n

What happened:<\/strong> Christian Washington 1-yard run<\/p>\n

Drive result (score):<\/strong> Touchdown (San Diego State 35, Stony Brook 0)<\/p>\n

Game 2: Washington State 36, San Diego State 13<\/strong><\/p>\n

Down and distance (time remaining):\u00a0<\/strong>Fourth-and-5 at Washington State\u2019s 35 (10:07 left in first quarter)<\/p>\n

What happened:\u00a0 <\/strong>Denegal 35-yard pass to Jacob Bostick<\/p>\n

Drive result (score): <\/strong>Touchdown (San Diego State 7, Washington State 0)<\/p>\n

Down and distance (time remaining):\u00a0<\/strong>Fourth-and-3 at Washington State\u2019s 49 (7:40 left in third quarter)<\/p>\n

What happened:<\/strong>\u00a0Denegal incomplete pass to Jackson Ford<\/p>\n

Drive result (score): <\/strong>Turnover on downs (Washington State 26, San Diego State 7)<\/p>\n

Down and distance (time remaining):\u00a0<\/strong>Fourth-and-7 from Washington State\u2019s 37 (12:30 left in game)<\/p>\n

What happened:<\/strong>\u00a0Denegal incomplete pass to Donovan Brown<\/p>\n

Drive result (score):<\/strong> Turnover on downs (Washington State 29, San Diego State 13)<\/p>\n

Down and distance (time remaining):\u00a0<\/strong>Fourth-and-9 from Washington State\u2019s 46 (9:11 left in game)<\/p>\n

What happened: <\/strong>Denegal sacked for loss of 12 yards<\/p>\n

Drive result (score):<\/strong> Turnover on downs (Washington State 29, San Diego State 13)<\/p>\n

Game 3: San Diego State 34, Cal 0<\/strong><\/p>\n

No attempts<\/p>\n

San Diego State (2-1) at Northern Illinois (1-2)<\/p>\n

When:<\/strong> 12:30 p.m. Saturday<\/p>\n

Where:<\/strong> Huskie Stadium, Dekalb, Ill.<\/p>\n

TV:<\/strong> ESPN+<\/p>\n

Radio:<\/strong> 760-AM<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"There was a time when going for it on fourth down made a football coach a character worthy…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":254138,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5134],"tags":[5229,103418,1582,276,1428,9715,134138,3549,7264,10055,103417,67,586,132,5230,68,2969],"class_list":{"0":"post-254137","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-san-diego","8":"tag-america","9":"tag-aztecs","10":"tag-ca","11":"tag-california","12":"tag-college-football","13":"tag-mountain-west","14":"tag-rocky-long","15":"tag-san-diego","16":"tag-sandiego","17":"tag-sdsu","18":"tag-sean-lewis","19":"tag-united-states","20":"tag-united-states-of-america","21":"tag-unitedstates","22":"tag-unitedstatesofamerica","23":"tag-us","24":"tag-usa"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/254137","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=254137"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/254137\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/254138"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=254137"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=254137"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=254137"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}