{"id":254319,"date":"2025-09-25T19:24:12","date_gmt":"2025-09-25T19:24:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/254319\/"},"modified":"2025-09-25T19:24:12","modified_gmt":"2025-09-25T19:24:12","slug":"dream-and-valkyries-head-into-the-offseason-following-first-round-exits","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/254319\/","title":{"rendered":"Dream and Valkyries Head Into the Offseason Following First-Round Exits"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\"\"<\/a>Allisha Gray and the Dream could be poised to take another step forward after a fantastic 2025 season (Photo credit: Chris Poss)<\/p>\n

With the WNBA semifinals off for another night before tomorrow\u2019s Game 3 doubleheader, it\u2019s a great time to check in on a couple of teams whose seasons have come to an end. This edition of Tulin\u2019s Treasures was originally going to be the first in a series of postmortems going from the bottom of the standings up, but the Liberty<\/a> and Storm<\/a> forced my hand a bit. As such, we might as well finish off the quartet of teams eliminated from the first round of the playoffs with the Dream and Valkyries (who will follow the paywall).<\/p>\n

Atlanta\u2019s 2025 season was an unqualified success, starting with the hiring of coach Karl Smesko in November following a 25-year run at Florida Gulf Coast. The Dream proceeded to make a big splash in free agency last winter with the signings of Brittney Griner and Brionna Jones, though they signed one-year deals with an eye towards cashing in on the next collective bargaining agreement like the rest of the league\u2019s veterans. The world largely slept on the Dream despite those big offseason splashes, with sports books giving them worse odds than the Sparks to win the championship<\/a> and setting their preseason wins over\/under right around a .500 record. The Dream blew everyone\u2019s expectations out of the water, finishing with a franchise-best 30-14 (.682) record while tying the Aces for the second-best record in the WNBA. They finished second in the league behind only the Lynx in both offensive rating (105.9 points per 100 possessions) and defensive rating (96.3 opponent points per 100 possessions).<\/p>\n

Most of the preseason talk centered not on Atlanta\u2019s title hopes, but on whether or not Smesko\u2019s style could work at the WNBA level. Truth be told, the principles of Smeskoball \u2014 generally speaking, prioritizing 3-pointers and layups \u2014 made it to the WNBA long before Smesko himself did, so it shouldn\u2019t come as any surprise that his style works just fine. One prominent example of a pre-Smesko Smeskoball team would be the 2024 New York Liberty, who led the league in 3-point rate (38% of scoring attempts) and field-goal percentage in the restricted area (69.9%) while taking the fewest midrange attempts and the second-most restricted-area\/3-point attempts en route to the WNBA title. The 2025 Dream\u2019s blueprint looked very similar, as they finished second in 3-point rate (37.3% of scoring attempts), took the second-fewest midrange attempts in the league and took the most combined restricted-area\/3-point attempts in the league.<\/p>\n

One key thing the Dream didn\u2019t do, though, was hit those shots very efficiently. The Dream were in the middle of the pack in most shooting categories, hitting 61.6% of their attempts in the restricted area (eighth in the league) and 33.7% on 3-pointers (seventh) for a combined field-goal percentage of 45.6% and an effective field-goal percentage of 55.3% on Smeskoball shots. Those percentages ranked seventh and eighth in the league, respectively. The Dream overcame their inefficient shooting to rank second in offensive efficiency largely because they were in the top third of the league in offensive rebounding rate (26.7%, third), turnover rate (14.2%, second) and free-throw rate (17.2%, fourth). It also didn\u2019t hurt that they were among the league\u2019s best defensive teams, finishing second in opponent effective field-goal percentage (47.8%), first in defensive rebounding rate (79.8%), and leading the league in opponent free-throw rate (13.0%).<\/p>\n

If we assume that the core player designation will carry over into the next CBA and be available to teams this offseason \u2014 neither of which is necessarily a safe assumption \u2014 the Dream will have the ability to bring back<\/a> perhaps their three most important players in 2022 No. 1 overall pick Rhyne Howard, recently-named Sixth Player of the Year Naz Hillmon (both set to be restricted free agents) and Allisha Gray, who would be the obvious target to be cored after finishing fourth in MVP voting. Rookie Te-Hina Paopao will also be back, and with all due respect to veteran Jordin Canada, I\u2019d love to see Paopao slide into the starting point guard role. The former Gamecock hit 38.6% from deep as a rookie (42.4% over the first three quarters of the season) after making 40% in her college career and would provide an instant upgrade to the starting five\u2019s long-range shooting over Canada (a 25.3% career 3-point shooter).<\/p>\n

The Dream seemed to truly find their groove when Hillmon slid into the starting lineup for the final 17 regular-season games, moving Jones to the five and Griner to the bench while improving the team\u2019s spacing. The problem was, it still left Atlanta with three starters (Canada, Hillmon and Jones) who weren\u2019t 3-point threats. Hillmon has put in a lot of work to start becoming one and hit 32.1% of her 165 attempts this season after taking just six 3-pointers in her first three seasons, but she hit only 28.4% when her minutes and attempts per game ticked up as a starter. Jones went 12-for-46 (26.1%) from deep after attempting 29 long-distance shots over her first eight seasons. She might well earn All-WNBA honors alongside Gray, but I wouldn\u2019t be surprised to see the Dream try to lure in a center who\u2019s more comfortable shooting from long distance. A center who can pull opposing bigs out of the lane and make the guards\u2019 layup attempts easier would really tie the Dream together<\/a>, but that\u2019s just not Jones, excellent as she is.<\/p>\n

My concern for Atlanta\u2019s future is that I\u2019m not sure if the team has put itself in a position to thrive in what\u2019s expected to be a post-CBA free-agent frenzy. Dream leadership has acknowledged that it has outgrown the league\u2019s smallest arena and needs a dedicated training facility<\/a> to replace the Paul Millsap-owned facility it currently leases. The team hasn\u2019t announced actual plans to improve either situation, though, and that could put them at a massive disadvantage as WNBA stars presumably sign long-term contracts for the first time in several years. After all, one of the byproducts of just about every veteran being a free agent is that just about every team has salary cap flexibility. There will inevitably be teams that can match any salary Atlanta offers and can promise a more attractive home court and facilities. Speaking of the Valkyries\u2026<\/p>\n