latest forecast from the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization<\/a>.<\/p>\n\u201cWe\u2019ve been relying on strength in the U.S. economy for the last several years to support tourism,\u201c said UHERO Executive Director Carl Bonham during a press conference about the report.<\/p>\n
Now that strength has fizzled, and UHERO economists say the state is feeling the impacts of federal policies like job cuts, immigration crackdowns, and new tariffs. <\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019ve seen really a pretty sharp downturn in tourism since the early part of the spring,\u201d Bonham said. \u201cThings like measures that we follow, like real consumption spending, has really very much stalled out. The U.S. housing market\u2019s basically in recession, manufacturers in recession.\u201d<\/p>\n
Another concern is the dramatic drop in the number of jobs being added each month — plunging 80% on average from three months ago. <\/p>\n
\u201cU.S. job growth has really weakened. And then the same thing is true for Hawaii,\u201d Bonham explained.<\/p>\n
Federal employment in Hawaii is down by 1,200 jobs. Total Hawaii employment is still down 15,000 jobs from pre-Covid levels.<\/p>\n
And while inflation was improving earlier this year, new tariffs are expected to push prices higher again.<\/p>\n
UHERO predicts by 2026, the cost of living for a typical Hawaii household will rise by $1,400 a year.<\/p>\n
\u201cOverwhelming uncertainty that is clearly impacting businesses, everything from farmers to manufacturers to retailers who either they can\u2019t sell their product because of trade wars, like the farmers, or they can\u2019t get product, or they don\u2019t have a clue what the price will be for any of the inputs,\u201c Bonham said.<\/p>\n
Adding to the uncertainty, delays to federal workers\u2019 pay and government services, should Congress fail to pass a spending bill before Sept. 30.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt feels like we\u2019re closer to a government shutdown than we have been since the last government shutdown,\u201d Bonham said.<\/p>\n
Construction remains a bright spot for Hawaii, thanks to military contracts and public projects. <\/p>\n
\u201cEssentially we\u2019re looking at a construction sector that remains elevated through most of this decade,\u201d Bonham added. <\/p>\n
Unless national trends change, expect them to play out here.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019re really dependent on what happens in the U.S. But when the U.S. goes badly, that\u2019s what pulls Hawaii into recession, even if the U.S. doesn\u2019t necessarily enter recession,\u201d said Steven Bond-Smith, UHERO Assistant Professor.<\/p>\n
To view the UHERO report, click here<\/a>.<\/p>\nCopyright 2025 Hawaii News Now. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) – Hawaii remains headed for a mild recession next year. That\u2019s the takeaway from the latest…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":258119,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[64,9886,51469,79,135704,266,15878,10405,98499,75,5331,4684,135386,766,67,132,68],"class_list":{"0":"post-258118","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-construction","10":"tag-economist","11":"tag-economy","12":"tag-federal-spending","13":"tag-inflation","14":"tag-job-cuts","15":"tag-recession","16":"tag-shutdown","17":"tag-tariff","18":"tag-tourism","19":"tag-trade-policy","20":"tag-uhero","21":"tag-unemployment","22":"tag-united-states","23":"tag-unitedstates","24":"tag-us"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/115274990850824058","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/258118","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=258118"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/258118\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/258119"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=258118"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=258118"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=258118"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}