{"id":261391,"date":"2025-09-28T13:42:10","date_gmt":"2025-09-28T13:42:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/261391\/"},"modified":"2025-09-28T13:42:10","modified_gmt":"2025-09-28T13:42:10","slug":"chicago-budget-fight-a-political-scylla-and-charybdis-for-mayor-brandon-johnson","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/261391\/","title":{"rendered":"Chicago budget fight a political Scylla and Charybdis for Mayor Brandon Johnson"},"content":{"rendered":"

The leaves are starting to change in Chicago, and Mayor Brandon Johnson is about to kick off a fall budget fight that will test his political savvy at least as much as his ability to balance the city\u2019s books.<\/p>\n

To close a $1.15 billion 2026 funding gap by the end of the year, the freshman chief executive will have to dance through a minefield. He faces a restive crew of aldermen who are deeply skeptical of the mayor\u2019s political standing, labor groups whose continued support may hinge on Johnson sparing their city union jobs and grassroots activists trying to push him left to live up to his \u201ctax the rich\u201d pledges while the business community chafes against those hopes.<\/p>\n

Looming over all of these dynamics is the countdown to 2027, when the mayor and aldermen are on the ballot and budget decisions for 2026 such as tax increases will still be fresh in Chicagoans\u2019 minds.<\/p>\n

\u201cVoters\u2019 memories are short. \u2026 The closer you get to an election, the more in focus those decisions become,\u201d Aviva Bowen, a Democratic political strategist, said. \u201cThe budget crisis wasn\u2019t created overnight, but the mayor\u2019s shaky standing with voters and City Council has completely poisoned the process, and what you have now is the perfect storm at the worst possible time.\u201d<\/p>\n

Johnson\u2019s ongoing opposition to raising property taxes or instituting layoffs \u2014 traditionally two reliable but politically perilous ways to fill the budget hole \u2014 along with his uneasy relationships with many aldermen and Springfield leaders will likely complicate his path to the 26 council votes he needs. The final version of the 2026 budget passed by aldermen may end up unrecognizable from the mayor\u2019s proposal he will unveil mid-October.<\/p>\n

That could be by design.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt is my responsibility to present a budget,\u201d Johnson said after he struggled last year<\/a> to get a council majority for a 2025 budget. \u201cIt is the City Council\u2019s responsibility to pass that budget.\u201d<\/p>\n

Asked Thursday how he views this year\u2019s proposal, the mayor described his proposition as aspirational. The final product<\/a> will be \u201ca collective response,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe hope is that the people who represent the people of Chicago in the City Council see the values we are putting forward,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Johnson\u2019s leadership style is indeed a break from prior Chicago mayors domineering over negotiations that largely ended with their original proposal, plus modest tweaks. And the risk is that the process could devolve into chaos with competing interests fighting for their own priorities and nobody on the fifth floor with the strength to rein it in.<\/p>\n

But relinquishing control could also allow the mayor to publicly wash his hands of the backlash against unpopular choices in the finished budget \u2014 and give aldermen cover to vote for a plan that\u2019s harder for mayoral foes to label as \u201cBrandon\u2019s budget.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cHe\u2019s saying he\u2019s more democratic, but is he also just passing the buck? That is a relevant question,\u201d said Rebecca Williams, a political consultant who works with progressive candidates. \u201cBut I do see that recognizing the democracy involved in the choice in and of itself lifts some of the burden of it just being the mayor\u2019s budget.\u201d<\/p>\n

This week, a final wrap-up of council business before the mayor introduces his opening 2026 plan only added to the immediate tab.<\/p>\n

Aldermen are now set to blow past an Oct. 1 state deadline for the city to maintain a 1% grocery tax, worth roughly $80 million<\/a> a year. If the council takes it up during the budget, collections would not start until midway through 2026.<\/p>\n

And they passed a $90 million \u201cglobal\u201d settlement<\/a>, to be paid next year, to alleged victims of disgraced Sgt. Ronald Watts. The city expects the settlement will save even more in the long run, but it adds to the deficit.<\/p>\n

Johnson and others have acknowledged democratizing the budget would be messy. It was clear this week as aldermen squabbled over, but ultimately did not bring for a full City Council vote, a proposal that would open the door to video gambling in the city. Johnson\u2019s administration is opposed, citing small returns and the threat of cannibalizing revenues from the Bally\u2019s casino.<\/p>\n

Looking ahead, the budget power dynamics between the mayor and aldermen could be more fluid than ever.<\/p>\n

\"Ald.Ald. Gilbert Villegas, 36th, speaks during a meeting of the Chicago City Council in City Hall on Sept. 25, 2025. (Terrence Antonio James\/Chicago Tribune)<\/p>\n

Ald. Gilbert Villegas, 36th, a centrist who voted against the budget last year, said discussions among his colleagues have begun.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s incumbent upon the legislative branch to have its own ideas as well,\u201d he said. Given the mayor\u2019s opposition to a property tax hike, \u201cyou\u2019re going to see more City Council members getting together to figure out what\u2019s the best approach.\u201d<\/p>\n

Civic Federation President Joe Ferguson said he expected it this year\u2019s budget to be \u201cvery different from the historical norm, somewhat akin to last year and maybe even more so.\u201d Given the scale of the gap, the mayor might toss the \u201chot potato\u201d into aldermen\u2019s laps, he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe politics of this appears to be that the mayor is going to take a hard line on property taxes and leave it to the council, knowing that the council may have almost no choice but to breach the no-property-tax-increase principle,\u201d Ferguson said.<\/p>\n

But there are several hurdles to the council flexing its independence. Aside from a unified opposition to last year\u2019s property tax hike, broad alliances are rare. There are often divisions within the city\u2019s ethnic and ideological caucuses. Last budget, for example, Ald. Andre Vasquez, 40th, broke with the rest of the Progressive Caucus and voted no.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s also the more basic infrastructure problem: Aldermen are at the mayor\u2019s mercy to access ongoing budget data, crunch numbers and assess the impact of new proposals. They rely on a small office of financial analysis and separate legislative reference bureau to draft amendments.<\/p>\n

Many are hoping a commissioned analysis from Ernst & Young will yield ideas, but some aldermen are worried Johnson\u2019s administration would edit out proposals they don\u2019t like before releasing a final report.<\/p>\n

\"MayorMayor Brandon Johnson answers questions in the rain, Sept. 23, 2025, during an event in Chicago\u2019s West Town neighborhood to mark progress on building bikeways across the city. (Brian Cassella\/Chicago Tribune)<\/p>\n

Regardless of the internal strife, the council and the mayor have few voter-friendly options to close the gap and plenty of outside groups are prepping pressure campaigns for and against various budget options.<\/p>\n

One Future Illinois, a fundraising and advocacy group launched by business and civic leaders, commissioned a poll and briefed aldermen on its results earlier this month. It largely mirrored the group\u2019s pro-business and \u201ccuts first\u201d perspective: 80% of respondents were opposed to a property tax hike tied to the rate of inflation, 62% were against a per-employee head tax, and 73% opposed a higher garbage fee.<\/p>\n

The poll \u2014 from the firm Change Research, which had a margin of error of 3.7% \u2014 suggested taxes on sports betting and fines for loud vehicles, or placing digital ads on public property would pass muster. But those would not make a significant dent in the deficit.<\/p>\n

One Future\u2019s president, Michael Ruemmler, said the poll is not a warning from the group that aldermen should stay away from tax hikes, \u201cit\u2019s a warning from everyday Chicagoans. We just want to make sure their voices are amplified in this process.\u201d<\/p>\n

A separate poll taken in early September reflects an age-old truism: Voters support cuts to budgets, but not to services the public relies on. It also highlights what little trust the respondents have in both the mayor and the City Council to dig out of the city\u2019s deep structural deficit.<\/p>\n

That poll of 601 registered Chicago voters by the firm Hart Research Associates found respondents were nearly equally split on what concerned them more: a government going too far by cutting key services (37%) or by raising taxes on people and businesses (39%).<\/p>\n

It was commissioned by Leading a Better Chicago, a civic advocacy group launched by Bill Quinlan, an attorney best known recently for representing former Chicago Public Schools CEO Pedro Martinez. Quinlan has been a rumored mayoral candidate as well.<\/p>\n

The poll, he said, was commissioned to understand public beliefs and what residents would be willing to accept to prevent the city from entering into a \u201cdeath spiral.\u201d<\/p>\n

Among some of the more acceptable budget solutions: 67% favor increasing taxes on alcohol, cigarettes and marijuana and 59% support allowing video gambling in bars and restaurants (One Future\u2019s poll put support for that at 70%). A per-employee head tax on businesses garnered 38% support (26% in the One Future poll), a sales tax on online subscriptions garnered about 30% and raising property taxes by $300 million \u2014 Johnson\u2019s proposal last year \u2014 got just 12% support. Questions about specific budget options weren\u2019t put to all 601 respondents, but were split between half of the respondents. That brings the poll\u2019s 4% margin of error up to 5.7% for those questions.<\/p>\n

Seventy-one percent also agreed that they would \u201crespect elected leaders who would have the honesty to make taxes a part of the budget discussion.\u201d<\/p>\n

That same poll says just 34% have a lot or some confidence the mayor could help solve Chicago\u2019s budget deficit and long-term fiscal problems. For the City Council, the figure is 26%.<\/p>\n

Ald. Silvana Tabares, 23rd, said a common polling phenomenon \u2014 that respondents like their own representative, but not the governing body as a whole \u2014 is in play. \u201cI think there\u2019s a big trust issue with the mayor\u2019s office. With the residents, they don\u2019t trust the mayor. They trust more their alderperson.\u201d<\/p>\n

Quinlan said the poll suggests the mayor and aldermen will be rewarded for honesty. \u201cMy advice to them would be: Do the right thing, get the city on the right path and not worry about reelection. Good government is good politics. When people recognize we are on the precipice of this financial disaster, they want to hear straight talk.\u201d<\/p>\n

Johnson, a labor leader before he was mayor, will be hard-pressed to make cuts. He ran, in part, on unwinding budget cuts made to city mental health clinics during Mayor Rahm Emanuel\u2019s 2011 budget.<\/p>\n

Anders Lindall, spokesman for AFSCME Council 31, said even if Johnson reversed his long-standing support of labor, sweeping cuts to \u201cevery penny of corporate funding\u201d to the Streets and Sanitation, Transportation, Public Health, Animal Control departments would not only result in \u201cno garbage pickup, no street repair, no mental health clinics, no building inspectors,\u201d it wouldn\u2019t even close the gap.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou\u2019d have chaos and you\u2019d still have a budget hole,\u201d Lindall said.<\/p>\n

Some cuts have the full-throated support of Johnson\u2019s progressive base to come up with more money to spend on the policies he campaigned on. Activist groups are lobbying the mayor to slash police spending to get the cash.<\/p>\n

\u201cNow is really the time to fight for the things that progressives who went into City Hall ran on, promised,\u201d said Asha Ransby-Sporn, a lead organizer for the Public Health and Safety for Chicago campaign.<\/p>\n

The Police Department is by far the city\u2019s most costly department, but many aldermen have resisted any reductions to front-line cop staffing.<\/p>\n

The mayor\u2019s most-coveted solution, either a check or a green light to tax the rich from Springfield, appears unlikely. His consistent drumbeat for progressive revenue \u2014 and permission from state leaders to raise it \u2014 has not moved the needle there.<\/p>\n

Johnson has made assurances that he will readily pull other less controversial levers, including a large sweep of TIF funds. He has also expressed willingness to update other fines and fees to match the rate of inflation.<\/p>\n

But he has publicly ruled out a property tax hike, after aldermen unanimously rejected his $300 million increase for 2025.<\/p>\n

His reluctance to again try the property tax third rail could mean Johnson sees the writing on the wall in terms of his faltering political capital. No mayor since Richard M. Daley has convinced aldermen to approve a property tax hike less than two years out from reelection.<\/p>\n

Complicating things further for him, Johnson campaigned on holding the line on property taxes during the 2023 election.<\/p>\n

That pitch surely helped his bold progressive brand catch fire.<\/p>\n

But it was always going to come back to be a problem, said 17th Ward Ald. David Moore: \u201cIt\u2019s not even about the politics \u2026 it\u2019s going to eventually happen. It\u2019s gonna catch up with you.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The leaves are starting to change in Chicago, and Mayor Brandon Johnson is about to kick off a…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":261392,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5124],"tags":[960,5404,5386,1818,1370,50,80],"class_list":{"0":"post-261391","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-chicago","8":"tag-chicago","9":"tag-cook-county","10":"tag-il","11":"tag-illinois","12":"tag-latest-headlines","13":"tag-news","14":"tag-politics"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/115282218220414941","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/261391","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=261391"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/261391\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/261392"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=261391"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=261391"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=261391"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}