{"id":265863,"date":"2025-09-30T06:54:16","date_gmt":"2025-09-30T06:54:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/265863\/"},"modified":"2025-09-30T06:54:16","modified_gmt":"2025-09-30T06:54:16","slug":"china-manufacturing-activity-picks-up-in-september-official-pmi-still-shows-contraction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/265863\/","title":{"rendered":"China manufacturing activity picks up in September \u2014 official PMI still shows contraction"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A worker checks a finished vehicle on the production line for electric vehicle maker Zeekr at its factory on May 29, 2025 in Ningbo, China. <\/p>\n<p>Kevin Frayer | Getty Images News | Getty Images<\/p>\n<p>China&#8217;s official gauge for manufacturing activity showed a smaller-than-expected contraction in September as Beijing intensified its efforts aimed at curbing industrial overcapacity amid sluggish domestic demand and global trade disruptions.<\/p>\n<p>The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers&#8217; Index came in at 49.8, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.stats.gov.cn\/sj\/zxfbhjd\/202509\/t20250930_1961437.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed<\/a>, compared with expectations for 49.6, according to a Reuters poll. That reading, while still in contraction, was the strongest since March.<\/p>\n<p>China&#8217;s official manufacturing PMI has stayed below the 50-benchmark separating growth from contraction <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/06\/30\/chinas-manufacturing-activity-contracts-for-a-third-month-amid-deflation-woes-.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">since April<\/a>, as manufacturers grapple with tepid domestic demand and higher U.S. tariffs that have hurt exports to the world&#8217;s largest consumer market.<\/p>\n<p>The sub-index tracking production rose to a six-month high of 51.9 in September as manufacturing activity picked up while new orders ticked up to 49.7, according to the official statement. The index measuring manufacturers&#8217; inventories rose to 48.5, indicating that stockpiles of materials were shrinking at a slower pace.<\/p>\n<p>The overall improvement in production was driven by manufacturing of equipment, high-tech and consumer goods, with notable gains in both output and new orders, Lihui Huo, chief statistician at the National Bureau of Statistics, said in a statement.<\/p>\n<p>Private surveyor RatingDog also released its manufacturing PMI, with the reading at 51.2 for September, beating economists&#8217; forecast for 50.2 in a Reuters poll, marking its highest level since May.<\/p>\n<p>Rising new orders, including for exports, drove the improvement in production growth in September, the private RatingDog said.<\/p>\n<p>The official non-manufacturing PMI, which includes services and construction, edged lower to 52.9 in September from 53 in the prior month, while the RatingDog general services PMI eased to 50 from 50.3.<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"flourish-credit\" href=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/23540074\/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_campaign=visualisation\/23540074\" target=\"_top\" style=\"text-decoration:none!important\" rel=\"noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Made with Flourish\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/made_with_flourish.svg\" style=\"width:105px!important;height:16px!important;border:none!important;margin:0!important;\"\/> <\/a><\/p>\n<p>Private surveys, previously conducted by Caixin and S&amp;P Global, have painted a better picture than official polls over the previous years as they have focused more on export-oriented manufacturers.<\/p>\n<p>The RatingDog private survey covers 650 manufacturers and collects responses in the second half of each month while the official PMI surveys<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/07\/01\/china-caixin-pmi-factory-activity-unexpectedly-expands-in-june.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> <\/a>a larger sample of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/07\/01\/china-caixin-pmi-factory-activity-unexpectedly-expands-in-june.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">over 3,000 companies <\/a>at month-end.<\/p>\n<p>A slate of economic data out of China in recent weeks has pointed to a slowdown in the world&#8217;s second-largest economy, with\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/09\/15\/china-retail-sales-industrial-output-slow-in-august-missing-estimates-as-real-estate-slump-worsens.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">retail sales growth weakening for a third straight month<\/a>\u00a0and the consumer price index\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/09\/10\/china-cpi-august-deflation-.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">once again dipping into the negative territory<\/a>, underscoring sluggish domestic demand.<\/p>\n<p>Industrial profits recorded a double-digit jump in August from a year earlier as Beijing intensified efforts to rein in a supply glut and excessive price wars, easing the deflation in wholesale prices.<\/p>\n<p>A meeting of China&#8217;s Politburo \u2014 composed of high-level members of the ruling Chinese Communist Party \u2014 in October is expected to offer some indication on Beijing&#8217;s economic policy plans in response to the slowdown in the third quarter, said Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Since the GDP growth was above 5% in the first half-year, the government may tolerate the slowdown in H2 as long as it doesn&#8217;t jeopardize the full year growth target of 5%,&#8221; Zhang added.<\/p>\n<p>China&#8217;s economy <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/07\/15\/chinas-second-quarter-gdp-growth-slows-to-5point2percent-as-economists-warn-of-mounting-headwinds-ahead.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">expanded by 5.3% in the first half year<\/a>, putting the country on track to meet its full-year growth target of 5%.<\/p>\n<p>Even though China&#8217;s economy has &#8220;defied doom-sayers&#8221; many times in the past, achieving an average growth of 4.5% from 2026 to 2035 will still be difficult, said Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie, who estimates that China&#8217;s current GDP per capita, adjusted for inflation, is comparable to Japan&#8217;s in the late 1970s.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"A worker checks a finished vehicle on the production line for electric vehicle maker Zeekr at its factory&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":265864,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[8000,7998,133,64,81,135,67,132,68],"class_list":{"0":"post-265863","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-business","8":"tag-asia-economy","9":"tag-breaking-news-asia","10":"tag-breaking-news-markets","11":"tag-business","12":"tag-business-news","13":"tag-markets","14":"tag-united-states","15":"tag-unitedstates","16":"tag-us"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/115291938222629613","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/265863","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=265863"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/265863\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/265864"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=265863"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=265863"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=265863"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}