<\/p>\n
(Bloomberg) — The looming US government shutdown is a clear risk for the dollar.<\/p>\n
The threatened shutdown is adding to a number of challenges that have kept the dollar under pressure this year \u2014 including a new cycle of US interest-rate cuts that kicked off this month and attacks on the Federal Reserve\u2019s independence by the Trump administration.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Most Read from Bloomberg<\/p>\n
\u201cThe likelihood of the potential for a government shutdown is relatively high,\u201d said Bill Campbell, a global bond portfolio manager at DoubleLine. A protracted closure could weigh on the dollar, he added.<\/p>\n
In the three most recent episodes \u2014 in 2013, early 2018 and late 2018 into 2019 \u2014 the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index drifted lower both during the impasse and in the immediate aftermath. The 35-day closure of federal operations that began in December 2018 delivered the most pronounced bout of dollar weakness \u2014 showing the dollar would suffer more the longer the shutdown lasted. The greenback fell by around 2% during that shutdown period.<\/p>\n
This time around, the US currency capped a third straight daily decline, down 0.7% over the period. Bloomberg\u2019s dollar gauge is down more than 8% this year and fell less than 0.1% in September.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Implied volatility in euro-dollar options tends to rise ahead of shutdowns, underscoring that traders are quick to price in disruption risks. But realized swings tell a different story.<\/p>\n
In 2013, spot volatility lagged and only briefly spiked once the shutdown began. In January 2018, expectations and delivery lined up, with realized volatility tracking implied almost one-on-one. By contrast, during the prolonged 2018\/19 closure, options priced in turbulence that never fully materialized, as realized volatility stayed subdued through much of the impasse.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s no surprise that options sentiment over the next month has shifted back to neutral on the dollar, erasing last week\u2019s modest bullish bias.<\/p>\n
\u201cGiven greater market sensitivity to US political developments, we would expect modest dollar weakness against the yen, Swiss franc, and euro should a shutdown materialize,\u201d Citigroup strategists Daniel Tobon, Brian Levine and Osamu Takashima wrote in a Sept. 29 note. \u201cHowever, a quick resolution to the shutdown could lead to limited follow-through, keeping us in similar ranges to recent months.\u201d<\/p>\n
By Tuesday afternoon, a shutdown appeared increasingly likely. That would delay the release of key economic indicators, including the monthly employment report scheduled for Friday.<\/p>\n
At JPMorgan, strategist Patrick Locke said that the possible shutdown gives \u201can added layer of significance\u201d to other economic data, including Conference Board, job openings, ISM and ADP figures. August job openings released Tuesday were little changed while hiring was dampened, signaling a steadily slowing demand for workers.<\/p>\n
–With assistance from Carter Johnson, Anya Andrianova and George Lei.<\/p>\n
(Updates with prices as of month-end close.)<\/p>\n
Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek<\/p>\n
\u00a92025 Bloomberg L.P.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"(Bloomberg) — The looming US government shutdown is a clear risk for the dollar. The threatened shutdown is…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":268027,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[139625,3638,139627,64,32492,79,49089,139628,139626,67,132,68],"class_list":{"0":"post-268026","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-bill-campbell","9":"tag-bloomberg","10":"tag-bloomberg-dollar-spot","11":"tag-business","12":"tag-dollar-weakness","13":"tag-economy","14":"tag-government-shutdown","15":"tag-realized-volatility","16":"tag-shutdown-period","17":"tag-united-states","18":"tag-unitedstates","19":"tag-us"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/115296515254032107","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/268026","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=268026"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/268026\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/268027"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=268026"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=268026"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=268026"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}