InGame <\/p>\n
Another joins the fray.<\/p>\n
ForecastEx self-certified with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to offer sports event contracts two weeks ago and on Monday filed documents stating its apparent intention to include the type of proposition bets being offered by the Kalshi prediction market.<\/p>\n
Chicago-based ForecastEx, a Designated Contract Market and Derivative Clearing Organization owned by Interactive Brokers, has not yet launched sports markets. Companies may post markets the next business day after self-certification unless ordered to stand down by the CFTC.<\/p>\n
ForecastEx on Wednesday offered \u201cYes\/No\u201d contracts in the categories of Economic Indicators, Elections, Environment, Financial Markets, Government, and Technology.<\/p>\n
The most popular market on Wednesday \u2014 \u201cWill Zohran Mamdani win the New York City general election for mayor in 2025?\u201d \u2014 had slightly more than $3 million in volume.<\/p>\n
The company\u2019s filing was vague, informing the CFTC only that it was \u201cself-certifying the Definitive Statistical Success Forecast Contract\u201d and that \u201cForecastEx will list a Forecast Contract corresponding to Event Outcomes.\u201d<\/p>\n Language in the self-certification document \u2014 specifically with references to a \u201cseries of events\u201d and \u201cparticipant split outcome\u201d \u2014 almost certainly indicates prop bets and possibly parlays. Kalshi\u2019s self-certification of parlays was more concrete, referencing multiple components in contracts.<\/p>\n According to the ForecastEx filing, the minimum cost on any position will be one cent, with a position accountability level<\/a> of 250,000.<\/p>\n ptc09302531404-1<\/a><\/p>\n ForecastEx self-certified for sports event contracts<\/a> \u2014 described as \u201cSuccess Forecast\u201d contracts \u2014 on Sept. 16.<\/p>\n In that document, ForecastEx described the \u201cunderlying,\u201d or the market on which a contract would be based, as the \u201cofficially recognized result of an event, such as the final score of an individual event or the champion of a tournament.\u201d<\/p>\n InGame has requested clarification of its intentions from ForecastEx.<\/p>\n According to prediction market watcher Adhi Rajaprabhakaran, ForecastEx had the sixth-highest volume last week among its prediction market\/exchange peers. Its $95,000 tally far trailed leader Kalshi ($110 million).<\/p>\n Polymarket was the only other exchange on the list that has yet to offer sports contracts in the United States. Its CEO, Shayne Coplan, declared in September that the company had cleared regulatory hurdles<\/a> to relaunch in the United States, but has yet to do so.<\/p>\n Prediction market exchange volume (est. fee revenue) [sports ratio of volume] <\/p>\n Monday, Sep 28: ForecastEx touts no-fee speculating but, in his newsletter<\/a>, Rajaprabhakaran detailed how hidden costs in its fee structure could be \u201cruinous\u201d to its profitability.<\/p>\n ForecastEx is the latest company to position itself to spring in case Kalshi\u2019s protracted legal campaign to continue offering national sports betting under CFTC oversight is ruled legal despite challanges in numerous states, including Maryland, Massachusetts<\/a>, Nevada, and New Jersey.<\/p>\n Last week, PrizePicks<\/a> claimed it became the \u201cfirst company affiliated with a fantasy sports operator to be registered as a Futures Commission Merchant by the National Futures Association,\u201d allowing it to launch PrizePicks Predict in the future.<\/p>\n FanDuel partnered with<\/a>\u00a0CFTC-registered derivatives marketplace CME to eventually do the same. Meanwhile, DraftKings was reportedly mulling a\u00a0purchase of Railbird<\/a>. Polymarket bought CFTC-certified\u00a0QCEX<\/a>.<\/p>\n The potential impact of a Kalshi vindication on the state-level businesses of licensed sportsbooks is already being felt. A modest Kalshi entry in the same-game parlay marketplace Tuesday sent the stock<\/a> of national sports betting market-share leaders DraftKings and FanDuel down in value.<\/p>\n <\/a> <\/p>\n
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\ud83e\udd47@Kalshi<\/a>: $110M ($1.8M) [80%]
\ud83e\udd48 @Polymarket<\/a>: $44M ($0)
\ud83e\udd49@cryptocom<\/a>: $13M ($268k) [98%]
4. @Novig<\/a>: $6.9M ($0) [100%]
5. @SX_Bet<\/a>: $627k ($0) [100%]
6. @ForecastEx<\/a>: $95K ($950) [0%]\u2014 Adhi Rajaprabhakaran (@eightyhi) September 30, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n