{"id":270168,"date":"2025-10-01T21:25:14","date_gmt":"2025-10-01T21:25:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/270168\/"},"modified":"2025-10-01T21:25:14","modified_gmt":"2025-10-01T21:25:14","slug":"u-s-labor-market-declined-in-september-fueling-rate-cut-odds-bullish-for-bitcoins-q4-run","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/270168\/","title":{"rendered":"U.S. Labor Market Declined in September, Fueling Rate Cut Odds \u2013 Bullish for Bitcoin\u2019s Q4 Run?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Bitcoin<\/strong> extended its rally into October, breaking above $117,000<\/strong> for the first time since mid-September as fresh U.S. labor market data boosted expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.<\/p>\n

The world\u2019s largest cryptocurrency jumped more than 4% on the day<\/strong>, decisively shattering the $115,000 resistance zone.<\/p>\n

The move came after the Automatic Data Processing (ADP), a U.S.-based payroll and HR management company, reported a surprise loss of 32,000 private payrolls<\/strong><\/a> in September<\/strong>, versus expectations for a gain of 45,000.<\/p>\n

It marked the third decline in the past four months<\/strong>, indicating clear signs of economic weakness.<\/p>\n

Job openings rose by just 19,000 in August<\/strong> to 7.208 million, still near their lowest since January 2021. The three-month average fell to 7.26 million<\/strong>, a 4.5-year low and below pre-pandemic levels.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the job vacancy-to-unemployment ratio<\/strong><\/a> dropped to 0.98<\/strong>, its weakest reading since April 2021.<\/p>\n

Source: Kobeissi Letter<\/a><\/p>\n

That means there are now 157,000 more unemployed Americans than job vacancies<\/strong>, the widest gap since March 2021.<\/p>\n

The disappointing data have sharply shifted monetary policy expectations.<\/p>\n

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now see a 99% chance of a 25 bps Fed rate cut<\/strong> at the next FOMC meeting.<\/p>\n

A dovish Fed is widely viewed as a tailwind for Bitcoin, weakening the dollar and driving demand for risk assets.<\/p>\n

This aligns with Bitcoin\u2019s historical seasonality.<\/p>\n

October, November, and December have consistently delivered strong returns, with \u201cUptober\u201d<\/strong><\/a> often kicking off a year-end rally.<\/p>\n

On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows Bitcoin entering Q4 with conditions supportive of a rally. By reclaiming the Trader\u2019s Realized Price at $116K, Bitcoin has re-entered the bull phase of its cycle indicator.<\/p>\n

Source: CryptoQuant<\/p>\n

Spot Bitcoin demand has grown steadily since July, now running at a 62,000 BTC monthly growth rate. Such sustained demand was also present during Q4 rallies in 2020, 2021, and 2024.<\/p>\n

Whale holdings reinforce the bullish picture.<\/p>\n

Large Bitcoin addresses are expanding at an annual rate of 331,000 BTC, compared to 255,000 in Q4 2024, 238,000 at the start of Q4 2020, and a contraction of 197,000 in 2021.<\/p>\n

CryptoQuant estimates that these catalysts could expand Bitcoin\u2019s potential Q4 target range toward $160,000\u2013$200,000.<\/p>\n

From a high-timeframe perspective, Bitcoin\u2019s structure aligns with Wyckoff accumulation theory and broader macro liquidity cycles.<\/p>\n

The monetary policy shift in January 2024 marked the beginning of an accumulation range, while the April 6 \u201cspring\u201d low provided the foundation for the current uptrend.<\/p>\n

Within this structure, levels at $106,400 and $125,600 are identified as automatic reaction and support zones, while upside projections between $150,000 and $185,000 are considered major targets in the first quarter of 2026.<\/p>\n

This suggests Bitcoin remains early in a larger bullish expansion phase, with pullbacks likely to serve as healthy corrections rather than the start of a deeper reversal.<\/p>\n

On the technical front, Bitcoin is consolidating near $117,000 with clearly defined thresholds for both bullish continuation and potential reversal.<\/p>\n

The key structural support sits near $108,131. Should price falls below this level, it would flip the outlook bearish.<\/p>\n

However, as long as Bitcoin holds above the $113,000 to $118,000 range, the broader trend remains favorable for the bulls.<\/p>\n

Source: TradingView<\/p>\n

On the upside, immediate resistance lies at $120,000, a psychological barrier that, if broken, could open the path toward new all-time highs above $130,000.<\/p>\n

Should momentum persist, targets in the $122,000 to $125,000 range come into focus, with extension projections pointing as high as $145,000 to $150,000.<\/p>\n

Read original story U.S. Labor Market Declined in September, Fueling Rate Cut Odds \u2013 Bullish for Bitcoin\u2019s Q4 Run?<\/a> by Anas Hassan<\/a> at Cryptonews.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Bitcoin extended its rally into October, breaking above $117,000 for the first time since mid-September as fresh U.S.…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":270169,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[47770,64,81,79,525,26538,4313,140438,10067,5662,135,1435,19544,255,18218,4329,700,9580,26539,26540,8727,140439,620,140440,67,132,68],"class_list":{"0":"post-270168","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-markets","8":"tag-401k","9":"tag-business","10":"tag-business-news","11":"tag-economy","12":"tag-finance","13":"tag-financial-information","14":"tag-investing","15":"tag-investment-tools","16":"tag-investor","17":"tag-market-news","18":"tag-markets","19":"tag-mortgage","20":"tag-mutual-funds","21":"tag-personal-finance","22":"tag-quote","23":"tag-real-estate","24":"tag-retirement","25":"tag-stock","26":"tag-stock-research","27":"tag-stock-valuation","28":"tag-stocks","29":"tag-suze-orman","30":"tag-tax","31":"tag-track-portfolio","32":"tag-united-states","33":"tag-unitedstates","34":"tag-us"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/115301025455493096","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/270168","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=270168"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/270168\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/270169"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=270168"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=270168"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=270168"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}