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Earlier this summer, speculation swirled that former Mayor Ron Nirenberg was eyeing a run for governor. Now it centers around a run for County Judge. Credit: Wikimedia Commons \/ Eric Dietrich<\/p>\nEarlier this summer, speculation swirled that former Mayor Ron Nirenberg was eyeing a run for governor. Now it centers around a run for County Judge. Credit: Wikimedia Commons \/ Eric Dietrich<\/p>\n
After recent speculation that former San Antonio Mayor Ron Nirenberg might run for governor or another state-level office, local political observers say he instead could be mulling a run against Bexar County Judge Peter Sakai in the 2026 Democratic primary.<\/p>\n
What\u2019s more, the odds are in Nirenberg\u2019s favor, according to new polling data.<\/p>\n
A survey by San Antonio-based Democratic strategist Christian Archer shows Nirenberg winning by a 52%-26% landslide in a theoretical primary matchup against Sakai, who\u2019s approaching the end of his first term.<\/p>\n
\u201cThat\u2019s a stunning number,\u201d Archer told the Current.<\/p>\n
\u201cI don\u2019t know if Ron\u2019s going to get in [the race], but I would also say that if he decided to run for county judge, he is obviously well positioned to run and win a Democratic primary,\u201d Archer added. \u201cI think that running for county judge is probably [\u2026] the most likely scenario for Ron.\u201d<\/p>\n
The Current reached out to both Nirenberg and Sakai for comment but got no response by press time Tuesday afternoon. <\/p>\n
Though speculation has swirled that Nirenberg might mount a bid for governor<\/a>, the former mayor would face long odds against incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott and his $86.1 million war chest. Indeed, no Democrat has won a statewide office in Texas since 1994. <\/p>\n \u201cWhen you kind of look at the field and you look at what\u2019s going on statewide, to me it makes a lot of sense that if [Nirenberg] was serious about running for county judge, the proof is in the numbers,\u201d Archer said about the former mayor\u2019s double-digit lead.<\/p>\n \u201cThat\u2019s not just a lead \u2014 that\u2019s a statement,\u201d said San Antonio attorney Louis Escareno said in a Tuesday Facebook post<\/a> in which he shared the poll numbers. <\/p>\n Archer said that since Escareno\u2019s Facebook post, he\u2019s received a slew of emails about the survey, which he hasn\u2019t even shared with Nirenberg yet.<\/p>\n Archer, who worked on campaigns for former mayors Phil Hardberger and Nelson Wolff, says he obtained the data by polling 300 likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of 5.66%. <\/p>\n \u201cWe were in the field for five days to get the sample size,\u201d Archer said. <\/p>\n Pollsters collected approval ratings for both Nirenberg and Sakai as well as Sheriff Javier Salazar to make the survey appear less skewed toward one candidate or another, he added.<\/p>\n Democratic voters gave Nirenberg an approval rating of 87% following his four terms as mayor of San Antonio, an absolutely unheard of level of popularity, according to Archer.<\/p>\n By contrast, Sakai\u2019s approval rating in his first term as County Judge stands at 51%. <\/p>\n \u201cFor the incumbent judge in the Democratic primary, that\u2019s pretty soft,\u201d Archer said. However, only 6% of respondents said they disapproved of Sakai\u2019s performance.<\/p>\n \u201cChristian Archer\u2019s latest poll confirms what a lot of folks have been saying quietly across San Antonio: the current Bexar County Judge\u2019s tenure has been \u2026 underwhelming,\u201d Escareno said in his Facebook post. <\/p>\n \u201cLook, we\u2019ve got a lot of things facing the city and the county right now, obviously with Project Marvel, with a big budget deficit for the city,\u201d Archer said. \u201cI think that you really want to hear from your leaders, you really want them actively engaged in Project Marvel and out there really swinging the bat.\u201d<\/p>\n Archer shared the poll as Bexar County grapples with a backlog of 52,000 unprocessed voter registrations under Sakai\u2019s watch. Sakai and Bexar County Commissioners Court oversee the county Elections Department.<\/p>\n Sakai was in Japan for two weeks on a tour to gin up investment in Bexar County while the current voter registration backlog at the county reached crisis levels, his social media posts show. Sakai made a similar trip in the summer of 2024, per his newsletter<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cFor those of us who follow the \u2018word on the street,\u2019 this [poll result] lines up with what we\u2019ve been hearing: frustration with lackluster leadership, slow decision-making, and poor negotiating outcomes \u2014 particularly on high-stakes issues like the proposed Spurs arena deal and the uncertain future of the county facilities the team would abandon,\u201d Escareno added in his post.<\/p>\n Subscribe to SA Current newsletters.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n Follow us:\u00a0Apple News<\/a>\u00a0|\u00a0Google News<\/a>\u00a0|\u00a0NewsBreak<\/a>\u00a0|\u00a0Reddit<\/a>\u00a0|\u00a0Instagram<\/a>\u00a0|\u00a0Facebook\u00a0<\/a>| Twitter<\/a>\u00a0| Or sign up for our\u00a0RSS Feed<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n Related Stories<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t \n\t\t\t\t\tAn anonymous staffer also reported stressful conditions inside the department, including 12-hour shifts and seven-day work weeks. \t\t\t\t<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/IMG_05D1A37F5736-1.jpeg\")
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