{"id":297450,"date":"2025-10-12T14:15:26","date_gmt":"2025-10-12T14:15:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/297450\/"},"modified":"2025-10-12T14:15:26","modified_gmt":"2025-10-12T14:15:26","slug":"cracks-emerge-in-texas-economy-as-job-growth-slows","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/297450\/","title":{"rendered":"Cracks emerge in Texas\u2019 economy as job growth slows"},"content":{"rendered":"

Unprecedented new tariffs. <\/b>A sweeping immigration crackdown. Widespread federal jobs cuts. Several months into a whirlwind of federal policy shifts, the U.S. economy has noticeably cooled, and recent data suggests cracks have also started emerging in long-roaring Texas. <\/p>\n

But the Lone Star State is still likely to continue performing better than the country as a whole, economists told The News, The same is true for Dallas-Fort Worth, which years ago solidified its own place among the country\u2019s most booming metro regions<\/a>. <\/p>\n

\u201cThe economy in North Texas does seem to have slowed,\u201d said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank. \u201cBut that slowdown is against the backdrop of a really strong secular growth trend in our region. So everything\u2019s relative.\u201d<\/p>\n

After several years of strong GDP growth, the national backdrop has also shifted: While the ongoing federal government shutdown has put a freeze on new data, earlier reports indicate that throughout 2025, the U.S. economy has been stuck in neutral. National GDP is still on track to grow this year, but the expected growth rate \u2014 1.9%, according to Sept. 23 report<\/a> from S&P Global \u2014 is projected to fall well below that of recent years. <\/p>\n

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Year-over-year inflation, meanwhile, has ticked up every month since April. The labor market has become stagnant, even as AI, in particular, continues to provide a significant GDP boost. <\/p>\n

\u201cThe bottom line? The economy should be able to avoid an economic downturn over the next six, 12, 18 months,\u201d Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody\u2019s Analytics, said during a recent presentation at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. \u201cBut it\u2019s going to be uncomfortable at times.\u201d<\/p>\n

The macroeconomic challenges are surfacing after a prolonged stretch of prosperity for Texas and D-FW. For several years, much of this region\u2019s economic success has come from a kind of virtuous cycle: As dozens of corporations have flocked to North Texas, so have millions of new residents, and the explosive population growth has only fueled more economic growth across a wide spectrum of industries. <\/p>\n

One recent report<\/a>, from the data firm Lightcast, ranked D-FW first among the country\u2019s large metro areas in its annual workforce talent attraction scorecard \u2014 largely because of the region\u2019s ongoing population explosion. <\/p>\n

\u201cDallas has been scoring quite well over the past decade,\u201d said Cole Napper, the firm\u2019s vice president of research. \u201cIf I were to give my own hypothesis on why that\u2019s the case, it\u2019s because of a cumulative effect where growth begets more growth.\u201d <\/p>\n

Texas\u2019 overall economy \u2014 buoyed by everything from cheap housing to a prolonged oil boom to a rising tech sector \u2014 has also been surging for the better part of two decades: Last year, the state\u2019s total GDP came in above $2.7 trillion, more than double its size in 2010, while its overall job production and population growth figures have ranked among the country\u2019s highest for years.<\/p>\n

\u201cEconomically, Texas ranks number one for the most new jobs over the past month, over the past year, for as long as the eye can see,\u201d Gov. Greg Abbott boasted during a bill signing ceremony<\/a> in Fort Worth in June. \u201cWe are the job creation engine of the United States of America.\u201d<\/p>\n

But more recently, that engine has been cooling. In recent years, Texas has averaged a job growth rate of 2% annually, said Luis Torres, a senior economist at the Dallas Fed. But a September Dallas Fed report forecast Texas was now on pace for a 1.3% overall jobs increase in 2025, down from the 1.5% forecast the bank had predicted a month earlier, a softened forecast that largely came from revisions to first-quarter data. <\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re not entering a recession, we\u2019re not losing jobs,\u201d said Torres. \u201cIt\u2019s still a good number, but you\u2019re below trend.\u201d <\/p>\n

Some Texans, though, have been losing jobs: In recent weeks, major companies, including Texas Instruments<\/a>, Spirit Airlines<\/a> and the Amazon contractor Accelore<\/a> have collectively laid off hundreds of workers. In August Texas recorded a 4.1% seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate, one tenth of a percentage point higher than July, while the state\u2019s major metro areas all recorded sharper monthly increases \u2014 including Dallas-Fort Worth<\/a>, which notched a 4.0% unemployment figure in July but a 4.4% rate in August. <\/p>\n

More pain to D-FW could be coming. The North Texas economy relies heavily on trade, and many economists are predicting the negative impacts of President Donald Trump\u2019s tariffs \u2014 which businesses have partly managed to delay by front-loading orders and absorbing some costs. Other federal policies, like the administration\u2019s announcement last month of a new $100,000 fee on temporary visas for skilled workers, are also expected to hit D-FW hard, because North Texas relies heavily on immigrants. <\/p>\n

The surcharge will apply to a visa program largely used by high-paid tech workers and left many Dallas-area workers in a panic<\/a>: Besides the region\u2019s burgeoning tech sector, the visa changes could also damage D-FW\u2019s established healthcare industry and even the incoming Y\u2019all Street stock exchanges, said Dean Stansel, a professor at SMU\u2019s Cox School of Business. <\/p>\n

\u201cThose are tech jobs in a way too,\u201d he said. \u201cIt could threaten the success of that initiative.\u201d <\/p>\n

Still, economists say that Texas, after enjoying a booming economy for years, remains relatively well-positioned, with a labor market that\u2019s still growing faster than the national average even if it\u2019s cooled. <\/p>\n

And prospects for D-FW, in particular, are still bullish: The region is likely to suffer disproportionately from a broader immigration slowdown, because incoming foreign workers, especially from Latin America, have played a significant role in North Texas\u2019 population and economic boom. But at the same time, said Adams, the region still has a lot going for it, with a relatively affordable cost of living, open space for more development and sufficient resources, if they\u2019re managed well. <\/p>\n

\u201cAnd so that is going to be a magnet for people seeking economic opportunity and a good quality of life for themselves and for their kids for a long time,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

It all means that North Texas\u2019 famous growth story<\/a> isn\u2019t done yet, he added.<\/p>\n