At the beginning of his tariff standoff with Beijing, President Trump was confident in his strong hand. China\u2019s economy was reliant on U.S. consumers, he said, and so it would have to make some compromises or risk losing them. <\/p>\n
\u201cChina has been hit much harder than the USA, not even close,\u201d Trump wrote on Truth Social<\/a>, the social media site he owns, in April. Later that month, he admitted that while American shoppers may have to cut back on Chinese-produced consumption, the White House\u2019s tariff plan meant the Chinese government was<\/a> \u201chaving tremendous difficulty because their factories are not doing business.\u201d<\/p>\n Six months later and it seems Beijing has simply circumnavigated the U.S. by focusing on increasing its exports to the rest of the world. The diversification has been so successful that China\u2019s export market is actually tracking significant growth despite the trade war.<\/p>\n According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, China\u2019s shipments to the U.S. fell 27% in September, the sixth month of double-digit declines to its once most valuable customer. Meanwhile it charted strong growth to areas like the European Union (currently operating under a 15% tariff rate from the White House), leading to export growth to non-U.S. countries of 14.8%. <\/p>\n The shift away from the U.S. means exports are actually up 8.3% in September compared to a year ago, raking in \u00a0$328.6 billion\u2014its highest total for 2025 so far.<\/p>\n China\u2019s economy is fairing better than expectations outlined back in April, when President Trump first made his tariff plans known. Earlier in the year World Bank speculated China\u2019s economy would grow 4% in 2025, but last week revised<\/a> this up to 4.8%. Likewise, it upped its expectations for 2026 from 4% to 4.2%. <\/p>\n Conversely, in June the World Bank cut its expectations<\/a> for U.S. growth by 0.9 percentage points to 1.4% for 2025.<\/p>\n This backdrop means Trump\u2019s threat last week to impose 100% tariffs on China may not have held the potency it once did. Having been relatively successful in side-stepping Trump\u2019s tariffs so far, Beijing responded<\/a> forcefully to the Oval Office\u2019s threat, blasting it as a \u201cdouble standard.\u201d<\/p>\n A spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce said<\/a>: \u201cFrequently threatening high tariffs is not the right approach to engaging with China. China\u2019s position on a tariff war is consistent: we do not want one, but we are not afraid of one.\u201d<\/p>\n Room for compromise<\/p>\n Having issued the warning\u2014and with both sides still operating under a pause on reciprocal tariffs until November 10\u2014President Trump did then seek to strike a more reasoned tone, and sent futures climbing as a result. <\/p>\n