Well, let\u2019s put it this way. If Rhule had no previous ties to Penn State, and if athletic director Pat Kraft hadn\u2019t hired him at Temple, would a coach who\u2019s lost 18 straight games to Top 25 opponents even show up on the candidate lists for this job<\/a>?<\/p>\n Of course not. Rhule has made steady progress rebuilding Nebraska, just like he did in his previous two college jobs (Temple and Baylor). But Penn State is not a rebuilding job. The program was in the College Football Playoff semifinals last year. The new coach likely gets a year\u2019s grace, but by Year 2 will be expected to contend for national championships<\/a>. Rhule, with his 2-23 Top 25 record, has not demonstrated he\u2019s any more capable of that than Franklin. Maybe that changes by season\u2019s end, but so far in Year 3, Nebraska has played two good-but-not-great teams, Cincinnati and Michigan<\/a>, and gone 1-1.<\/p>\n Of course, the inherent risk of firing a coach who won 70 percent of his games is there aren\u2019t a lot of obvious upgrades out there. National champion coaches Kirby Smart, Dabo Swinney and Ryan Day aren\u2019t going to State College. Nor are Kalen DeBoer, Marcus Freeman or Dan Lanning. If Kraft is truly interested in conducting a real coaching search rather than handing the job to his buddy, he may have to just go by which realistic candidate inspires the most confidence.<\/p>\n Here are a few that give me confidence.<\/p>\n \u2022 <\/strong>Curt Cignetti. For obvious reasons<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u2022 Iowa State\u2019s Matt Campbell. He coaches at a school with far less history and fewer resources than Nebraska and no real inherent advantages over Baylor, yet he has a far-more respectable career 15-28 Top 25 record, including a 4-6 record against top-10 teams with the Cyclones \u2014 the same number of top-10 wins as Franklin at Penn State in 15 fewer chances.<\/p>\n \u2022 Tennessee\u2019s Josh Heupel. That guy can coach, man. Tennessee hadn\u2019t been nationally relevant in 15 years before he got there, but the Vols finished in the top 10 two of the past three seasons and could reach a second straight CFP berth. Top 25 record: 12-14 (11-11 at Tennessee). Don\u2019t know if he\u2019d be interested, though I\u2019d contend it\u2019s easier to make regular CFP appearances at Penn State, playing a top-heavy Big Ten schedule, than at Tennessee.<\/p>\n After that \u2026 it\u2019s all risk. Which is not to say Lane Kiffin or Eli Drinkwitz or Jedd Fisch can\u2019t win big there, but nor are any of their resumes more distinguished than the guy they\u2019d be replacing.<\/p>\n Indiana currently has a 91 percent chance of making the Playoff (according to Austin Mock\u2019s projection model)<\/a>. Will PSU (or ANY school) wait for Cignetti? And does the 12-team CFP change who are realistic candidates moving forward? For example, if Memphis makes the CFP, does that eliminate Ryan Silverfield? \u2014 Mitchell S.<\/strong><\/p>\n I\u2019m glad someone asked this, because it\u2019s definitely going to come up in the coaching carousel. The only reason it didn\u2019t last year was because so few jobs opened up.<\/p>\n Think about 2021, when LSU hired Brian Kelly the week leading into Selection Sunday, even though 11-1 Notre Dame was sitting at No. 6 in the CFP rankings. There was some concern, though proven unwarranted, that the Irish could move into the final top four, with him already off to LSU. In a 12-team CFP, though, we\u2019d have already known the Irish were in. Kelly might still be at Notre Dame were that the case, and Marcus Freeman might still be a defensive coordinator somewhere. (Ohio State?)<\/p>\n A year ago, I would have said definitively that no school would wait until Dec. 19 at the earliest to make its hire. Not when the transfer portal opened 10 days before that. But with the start of the portal window shifting to Jan. 2<\/a>, only four teams will still be competing in the Playoff by then. In theory, if Penn State felt confident Cignetti would say yes, it could hold the job open<\/a> and hope Indiana gets eliminated by the quarterfinals. Shades of 2006-07, when Alabama athletic director Mal Moore waited out<\/a> Miami Dolphins coach Nick Saban for five weeks, even after he publicly declared, \u201cI\u2019m not going to be the Alabama coach,\u201d finally hiring him Jan. 3.<\/p>\n But that was such a different time. For one thing, coaches didn\u2019t get fired in October. Is Penn State really going to go nearly two months without a permanent coach? Also, social media was barely a thing during Saban Watch. I cringe at the thought of a full month of fake accounts, hourly flight tracking, people saying they saw the guy\u2019s wife looking at houses, etc. And it would be a huge distraction for the coach trying to prepare his team for the Playoff.<\/p>\n The more likely scenario is Cignetti or another coach in his position takes himself out of the running. Which, if that\u2019s the case, means some of the most sought-after coaches in any given cycle might be out of the running by default. Which, if so, is bad news for schools such as Penn State and Florida.<\/p>\n I\u2019ll be curious to see how that dynamic plays out this year. Maybe the end result will be that schools go from firing coaches in the middle of the season to schools waiting until January to fire their coach so that they can hire whoever they want.<\/p>\n Stew: You seem to have an opinion (or $200 million of them) on whopping buyouts of coaches<\/a>. So, play AD at Nebraska or Indiana or any of the other schools that employ a leading candidate for the Penn State job. Would you give Curt Cignetti an extension to ensure he stays, or conversely, hold your ground and risk him leaving? It\u2019s one thing to look back at such foolishness when it doesn\u2019t work out. What\u2019s your view looking forward? \u2014 Jeffrey J.<\/strong><\/p>\n Great question, because you\u2019re right. It may seem like a no-brainer at the moment for Indiana AD Scott Dolson to give another ginormous raise to Cignetti only a year after the last one. But what if Cignetti follows the path of Tom Allen (who himself got a $15.5 million buyout) and the Hoosiers nosedive following this two-year run? Dolson may be looking back three years from now kicking himself at the price tag.<\/p>\n On the other hand, if he doesn\u2019t do it, and Cignetti leaves, Dolson might not have a job in three years.<\/p>\n The only way this cycle is ever going to end is if schools shift from a contract structure in which the coach\u2019s compensation is based almost entirely on his past performance, to a more incentive-driven model in which the coach\u2019s compensation is tied at least in part to his future performance. This is fairly standard for executives in other industries, where their guaranteed base salary is modest (relatively speaking) but the potential upside, tied to company goals like sales and stock price, is enormous.<\/p>\n Think about how that might work for a college football coach. Say I want to hire away Kiffin from Ole Miss. He currently makes $9 million a year with a contract that runs through 2030 and has a $37 million buyout, around 80 percent the amount remaining. To even consider coming, he\u2019s going to want a raise, at least a seven-year contract and a higher guarantee. Say I agree to pay him $12 million a year for seven years ($84 million), and guarantee 90 percent of it. If he goes 4-8, 2-10 and 3-9 the first three years, not only did I flush $36 million down the toilet, I still owe him another $43 million.<\/p>\n What if I offer him a six-year deal at $10 million a year ($60 million), with only 33 percent guaranteed ($20 million max)? But for each year he makes the CFP, he gets a $10 million bonus, and if he wins a national championship, he gets a $25 million bonus. If over those six years, he goes to three CFPs and wins a national title, he\u2019s going to make $115 million, more than double what he\u2019d get if he stays at Ole Miss for the same period. But if he\u2019s a total flop, I only have to pay $6.66 million to cut bait after three years.<\/p>\n The problem is, for this concept to take off, someone has to go first, and no one wants to be the guy who scares off the school\u2019s top choice and\/or loses their beloved guy (like Cignetti) for trying something so unorthodox. But if anyone might be willing to make that kind of bet on himself, the guy who said, \u201cI win. Google me,\u201d seems like an ideal choice.<\/p>\n If not UCLA, James Franklin ends up at Stanford, right? \u2014Reggie C.<\/strong><\/p>\n I\u2019m pretty sure Franklin\u2019s employer in 2026 will have a different acronym. Think ESPN. Or NBC. Or Fox.<\/p>\n (Yes, I realize that last one is not an acronym.)<\/p>\n Midseason redo: name 1-2 top 15 teams who won\u2019t end up in the upper half of the polls at season\u2019s end; conversely which 1 to 2 teams not currently ranked make the biggest jump before the Playoff? \u2014 Sir T.<\/strong><\/p>\n I absolutely love midseason predictions. It gives me a chance to be doubly wrong every year.<\/p>\n Top 15 teams that fall:<\/strong><\/p>\n No. 10 LSU:<\/strong> The biggest sign LSU may be ranked too high is that it\u2019s an underdog this week at Vanderbilt. Blake Baker\u2019s defense is outstanding, but I don\u2019t know how much longer the Tigers can keep winning with a non-existent running game and a turnover-prone quarterback. Especially with Texas A&M and Alabama still ahead.<\/p>\n No. 14 Oklahoma:<\/strong> It may not be possible for both these teams to plummet because they play each other at the end of the year. But they\u2019re kind of identical teams right now with the same problems, and OU has a much tougher schedule remaining: No. 5 Ole Miss, No. 11 Tennessee, No. 6 Alabama, No. 16 Missouri and No. 10 LSU.<\/p>\n Unranked that move up:<\/strong><\/p>\n Washington:<\/strong> The 5-1 Huskies\u2019 one loss was to the No. 1 team (Ohio State). Demond Williams Jr. is one of the most dangerous QBs in the country and only getting better. Jonah Coleman<\/a> leads the FBS in rushing TDs (11). If they can pull off an upset at Michigan this weekend, they vault into CFP contention.<\/p>\n Duke.<\/strong> Darian Mensah<\/a> and the Blue Devils stumbled out of conference against Illinois and Tulane, but they\u2019ve averaged 42.7 points in their three ACC wins (NC State, at Syracuse, at Cal). I bet they knock off either No. 12 Georgia Tech or Clemson in the next two weeks and get back on course for a 9-3\/top 20-type finish.<\/p>\n \n Washington QB Demond Williams Jr. ranks third in the FBS in total offense per game. (Kevin Ng \/ Imagn Images)<\/p>\n Do you still believe Indiana can\u2019t win a national championship<\/a>? \u2014Martin D.<\/strong><\/p>\n I knew\u00a0I would get this question.<\/p>\n I did not consider the possibility in late September that, within three weeks of declaring it impossible to win a national championship at Indiana \u2014 ever \u2014 that the Hoosiers would suddenly look capable of winning a national championship this season. It\u2019s quite the predicament.<\/p>\n I\u2019m not going to reverse course just yet, mostly because it seems unwise to blow up my entire conception of the sport midway through a season, but I will say this: I\u2019d be thrilled to be proven wrong.<\/p>\n Indiana winning a national championship would be the most remarkable story in the modern history of college football. This is not a sport dripping with Cinderella stories, and, in fact, there are pockets of this country, particularly in the SEC, that seem to actively loathe when a Boise State or SMU or Indiana dares infringe on their sacred 9-3 teams.<\/p>\n Nine times out of 10, those upstarts eventually hit their ceiling, as Indiana did last year. And then we rinse and repeat.<\/p>\n If Indiana, a school that holds the second-lowest all-time winning percentage (.426) among Power 4 schools (ahead of only Wake Forest), can pull this off, then truly anyone can do it in this new landscape.<\/p>\n Which is why, as of this moment, I still believe it can\u2019t be done.<\/p>\n I say that despite being fully convinced the 2025 Hoosiers can beat anyone in the country this season. They are clearly much better along the lines of scrimmage than they were last season. As I originally wrote, winning three straight games in January against top-10 teams requires a level of depth that teams like Ohio State and Alabama almost always have, and where teams like Indiana are at a perpetual disadvantage.<\/p>\n As of today, IU reminds me a lot of the 2023 Michael Penix Jr. Washington team, which was very talented, very well-coached and played with such swagger. The Huskies made it all the way to the last night of the season before running into a Michigan team with 20 NFL draft picks (and counting).<\/p>\n If Indiana just reaches the title game, even if it then loses 65-7, it would still be the most remarkable story in the modern history of college football.<\/p>\n What would August Stew say to October Stew about the current AP poll<\/a>? \u2014 Sean M.<\/strong><\/p>\n Why didn\u2019t I listen to that voice in my head saying, \u201cShouldn\u2019t you be more concerned about Texas\u2019s offensive line?\u201d<\/p>\n I can\u2019t believe I talked myself into Dabo Swinney producing an elite team post-transfer portal.<\/p>\n Someone should probably alert AP there\u2019s a typo and Penn State got omitted.<\/p>\n Notre Dame is ranked in the teens in the polls, out of the Top 25 by the general public, but in the top five by the computers. Where do you think they stand? \u2014 Sesame C.<\/strong><\/p>\n Nobody wants to hear this, but Notre Dame is still very good. CJ Carr is now averaging 10.3 yards per attempt, tied for second in the country behind only USC\u2019s Jayden Maiava. Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price are the nation\u2019s top running back tandem this side of Missouri\u2019s Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts. And the defense appears to be improving every week<\/a>. That veteran secondary that got humiliated against Texas A&M is playing more like we expected. Notre Dame has picked off 11 passes.<\/p>\n But yes, the Irish lost twice. To the current No. 2 (Miami) and No. 4 (Texas A&M). By a combined four points. You are what your record says you are, so I get why they\u2019re only No. 13 in the AP poll. But context matters. No other team has played two opponents of that caliber. The team one spot above Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, is undefeated, but has played zero teams currently in the Top 25.<\/p>\n Computer ratings are designed to be predictive, and unlike pollsters, they\u2019re not measuring resumes, but rather the strength of performance relative to the schedule teams have played. So, the fact the Irish are in the top five in those is noteworthy. The one caveat I\u2019d note, though, is the preseason projections haven\u2019t completely fallen out of those numbers yet. According to ESPN\u2019s Bill Connelly, Notre Dame would be 11th in SP+ if all previous data was stripped out<\/a>.<\/p>\n I said at the time that Notre Dame will be a lock for the Playoff if it wins out, and I stand by it, while also conceding the Irish could well get knocked out this weekend. USC\u2019s Maiava and receivers Makai Lemon and Ja\u2019Kobi Lane are fully capable of exploiting that secondary the way A&M\u2019s Marcel Reed, Mario Craver and KC Concepcion did back in Week 3. Saturday\u2019s game in South Bend will tell us whether Notre Dame\u2019s defensive improvement is real or a mirage produced by an easier schedule.<\/p>\n I think it\u2019s the former, and if that\u2019s the case, Carr and company should beat the Trojans \u2014 and everyone left after that.<\/p>\n I get the numbers, but do Notre Dame and USC fans really have disdain for each other? It doesn\u2019t seem like their fan bases would ever interact in everyday life. \u2014 Zach<\/strong><\/p>\n Oh, they definitely hate each other, and their alums definitely cross paths. You can find them eyeing each other suspiciously in the conference rooms at JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs, the Tesla charging stations at Oracle, the bar at Mastro\u2019s or the back nine at Newport Beach Country Club.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Do you want to share your predictions, analysis or thoughts on Saturday\u2019s Notre Dame-USC game? Get involved with…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":305398,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[43],"tags":[1428,1372,1318,9443,16660,1317,1315,1316,11995,13874,21286,1381,62,67,132,68,20974],"class_list":{"0":"post-305397","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ncaa-football","8":"tag-college-football","9":"tag-duke-blue-devils","10":"tag-football","11":"tag-indiana-hoosiers","12":"tag-lsu-tigers","13":"tag-ncaa","14":"tag-ncaa-football","15":"tag-ncaafootball","16":"tag-nebraska-cornhuskers","17":"tag-notre-dame-fighting-irish","18":"tag-oklahoma-sooners","19":"tag-penn-state-nittany-lions","20":"tag-sports","21":"tag-united-states","22":"tag-unitedstates","23":"tag-us","24":"tag-washington-huskies"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/305397","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=305397"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/305397\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/305398"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=305397"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=305397"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=305397"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/USATSI_27293589-scaled.jpg\")
<\/p>\n