\n\tEvery Monday morning, Virginia-based cinema owner Mark O\u2019Meara pores over grosses to see how the newest releases are playing in his area. Last weekend didn\u2019t offer much to celebrate as some well-reviewed Oscar contenders collapsed at the box office.<\/p>\n
\n\tA24\u2019s \u201cThe Smashing Machine<\/a>,\u201d a sports biopic starring Dwayne Johnson as MMA fighter Mark Kerr, \u201cdied pretty quickly,\u201d O\u2019Meara reports. Meanwhile, \u201cnobody did really well with \u2018Roofman<\/a>,\u2019\u201d a dramedy featuring Channing Tatum.<\/p>\n \n\t\u201cIt was slow as hell,\u201d O\u2019Meara says. \u201cI thought the movies were good. There was a lot of hype with them that just didn\u2019t happen.\u201d<\/p>\n \n\tThe D.C. metro area wasn\u2019t the only place where those films failed to connect. \u201cRoofman\u201d debuted to a paltry $8 million, while \u201cSmashing Machine\u201d endured a brutal 70% decline in its sophomore outing, bringing revenues to $10.1 million. As for other films aimed at adults, \u201cKiss of the Spider Woman,\u201d a $34 million-budgeted musical adaptation with Jennifer Lopez, fizzled with $850,000 \u2014 albeit from far fewer theaters than Tatum\u2019s film.<\/p>\n \n\tEven Paul Thomas Anderson\u2019s \u201cOne Battle After Another,\u201d led by Leonardo DiCaprio, struggled to break out despite being hailed as a generational masterpiece. Though the global haul of $140 million is impressive for a film that\u2019s original, R rated and nearly three hours long, \u201cOne Battle\u201d requires roughly $300 million to break even. That\u2019s because Warner Bros. spent more than $130 million on production and $70 million on promotional efforts, and ticket sales are typically split 50-50 between studios and theater operators. Meanwhile DiCaprio typically gets first-dollar gross on his movies, meaning he gets a percentage of box office revenues before the studio recoups any costs.<\/p>\n \n\t\u201cThese prestige-type movies have failed to create a sense of FOMO among audiences,\u201d says Fandango\u2019s box office analyst Shawn Robbins. \u201cThey weren\u2019t event-ized enough.\u201d<\/p>\n \n\tRobbins also wonders whether audiences have been trained to wait for streaming debuts to see certain films, particularly the ones that don\u2019t feature superheroes, marauding dinosaurs or Christopher Nolan-style pyrotechnics. Since COVID, studios have shrunk the amount of time that films are exclusively available in theaters from 90 days to, in some cases, a couple of weeks.<\/p>\n \n\t\u201cPeople have come to expect these movies to be available in the home much sooner than they used to be,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n \n\tIn the case of \u201cRoofman,\u201d backed by Paramount Pictures and Miramax, a lean $19 million budget means that losses will be minimal. Other recent awards fare won\u2019t be as lucky. \u201cOne Battle After Another,\u201d which is mounting a multimillion-dollar Oscar campaign, is tracking to lose $100 million, according to studio executives with knowledge of the economics of similar-sized films. A Warner Bros. spokesperson pushed back on those estimates while noting the company has enjoyed a successful year at the box office with hits like \u201cSinners\u201d and \u201cA Minecraft Movie.\u201d<\/p>\n \n\t\u201cWarner Bros. refutes Variety\u2019s anonymous sources and their uninformed estimates,\u201d a studio spokesperson says. \u201cFilms across the studio\u2019s slate, including \u2018One Battle After Another,\u2019 have achieved financial reward in 2025 with more than $4 billion earned to date.\u201d<\/p>\n