This is the highest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate recorded since November 2021. <\/p>\n
The employment-to-population ratio remained steady at 64.0 per cent. <\/p>\n
A rise in both males and females seeking work contributed to the rise in the number of unemployed people in September. The number of unemployed males rose by 24,000 to 370,000, while the number of unemployed females rose by 10,000 to 314,000.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
Market reaction\u00a0to the Australia\u2019s employment data<\/p>\n
The Australian Dollar (AUD) attracts some sellers following the employment data. At the time of\u00a0writing,\u00a0the AUD\/USD pair\u00a0is trading 0.45% lower on the day to trade at 0.6482.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
AUD\/USD 15-min chart<\/p>\n
Australian Dollar Price This week<\/p>\n
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies this week. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.<\/p>\n
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)\/USD (quote).<\/p>\n
This section below was published at 20:30 GMT on Thursday as a preview of the Australia Employment report<\/p>\n
- \n
- The Australian Unemployment Rate is forecast to increase to 4.3% in September.<\/strong><\/li>\n
- Australia is expected to have added 17,000 new positions in the month, after losing 5,400 in August.<\/strong><\/li>\n
- AUD\/USD is stable around 0.6500 ahead of the announcement, struggling to recover ground.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Australia is set to publish the September monthly employment report on Thursday at 0:30 GMT, with market participants anticipating another tepid outcome, which has become the norm over the last few months.<\/p>\n
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is expected to announce that the country added 17,000 new jobs in the month, while the Unemployment Rate is forecast at 4.3%, slightly higher than the August figure. The Participation Rate is expected to remain stable at 66.8%.<\/p>\n
The ABS reports both full-time and part-time positions through the monthly Employment Change. Generally speaking, full-time jobs entail working 38 hours per week or more, usually include additional benefits, and typically provide consistent income. On the other hand, part-time employment generally means higher hourly rates but lacks consistency and benefits. That\u2019s why the economy prefers full-time jobs. In August, Australia lost 40,900 full-time positions and created 35,500 part-time ones.<\/p>\n
Australian unemployment rate expected to tick higher in September<\/p>\n
Ahead of the release, financial markets are torn between monetary policy decisions and political woes. On the one hand, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 3.6% when it met at the end of September, amid \u201csigns that private demand is recovering, indications that inflation may be persistent in some areas and labour market conditions overall remaining stable,\u201d according to the Board statement.<\/p>\n
Employment figures are crucial for monetary policy, as most central banks base their decisions on labor conditions and inflation levels. And regardless of the RBA calling it \u201cstable,\u201d the labour market has been giving signs of weakness: The economy lost 1,100 positions in May, added 1,000 in June, and gained an additional 26,500 in July, but then lost 5,400 in August. The Unemployment Rate, which averaged 4.1% throughout the first half of the year, is now forecast at 4.3%. Not a significant uptick, but still at the upper end of the yearly range.<\/p>\n
On the other hand, the United States<\/a> (US) government shutdown and fresh trade tensions between the US and China overshadowed central banks\u2019 influence on financial markets. The US government ran out of funding on October 1, and among other things, the release of official data has been suspended until further notice. Speculative interest still believes the Federal Reserve<\/a> (Fed) will deliver an interest rate cut in its upcoming October meeting. Still, if the shutdown extends, the Fed may choose to hold its fire.<\/p>\n
Additionally, US President Donald Trump reignited the trade war with China on Friday by threatening 100% tariffs on imports from the Asian giant. Beijing responded by charging additional port fees on US vessels. Given the tight relationship between China and Australia, renewed trade tensions negatively impacted the Australian Dollar (AUD).<\/p>\n
Back in Australia, the RBA meeting minutes showed that policymakers believe the labour market is still a little tight, and forward indicators<\/a> are steady. Also, RBA\u2019s Chief Economist noted that underlying inflation was likely stronger than the central bank had anticipated in Q3. As a result, expectations of further interest cuts have edged sharply lower.<\/p>\n
The upcoming employment report could have a limited impact on the forthcoming RBA<\/a> decision. Generally speaking, a weak report should be negative for the AUD, as it will not only signal a soft labor market but also keep the door open for additional interest rate cuts. The opposite scenario is also valid, with stronger-than-anticipated job creation likely boosting demand for the Australian Dollar (AUD) as it would not only be positive for the economy, but also delay future interest rate cuts.<\/p>\n
When will the Australian employment report be released and how could it affect AUD\/USD?<\/p>\n
The ABS September report will be released early on Thursday. As previously noted, the Australian economy is expected to have added 17,000 new jobs in the month, while the Unemployment Rate<\/a> is forecast<\/a> at 4.3% and the Participation Rate at 66.8%. Market participants will pay close attention to the breakdown between full and part-time positions on that expected 17,000 headline.<\/p>\n
Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, notes: \u201cThe AUD\/USD pair recovers from a fresh multi-week low of 0.6440 posted on Tuesday, as initial fears related to renewed trade tensions between Beijing and Washington receded. Still, the pair struggles to extend gains amid ongoing concerns favoring safe-haven demand. If something, Gold\u2019s record run provides modest support to the Aussie.\u201d<\/p>\n
Bednarik adds: \u201cFrom a technical point of view, the AUD\/USD pair has a limited bullish scope. The daily chart shows a horizontal 100 Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing resistance at around 0.6530, followed by a bearish 20 SMA in the 0.6570 area. Additional gains should revive the bullish case and push AUD\/USD towards 0.6610\/30. The same chart shows technical indicators advance within negative levels, also limiting the bullish potential. The aforementioned multi-week low at 0.6440 provides immediate support, closely followed by the 200 SMA at 0.6420. A clear breach of the latter should open the door for a decline towards the 0.3370 area.”<\/p>\n
Australian Dollar FAQs<\/p>\n
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment \u2013 whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) \u2013 is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. <\/p>\n
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. <\/p>\n
China is Australia\u2019s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. <\/p>\n
Iron Ore is Australia\u2019s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. <\/p>\n
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Australia\u2019s\u00a0Unemployment Rate climbed to 4.5% in September from 4.3% in August (revised from 4.2%), according to the official…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":307883,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[64,79,67,132,68],"class_list":{"0":"post-307882","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-economy","10":"tag-united-states","11":"tag-unitedstates","12":"tag-us"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/115383546179897802","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/307882","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=307882"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/307882\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/307883"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=307882"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=307882"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=307882"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
- Australia is expected to have added 17,000 new positions in the month, after losing 5,400 in August.<\/strong><\/li>\n