Look, we have to be honest: The college football season is halfway finished, and we\u2019ve already gotten a lot wrong. Then again, who hasn\u2019t?<\/p>\n
Twelve of The Athletic\u2019s 28 staff members surveyed in August<\/a> predicted Texas to win the national title. The Longhorns aren\u2019t technically out of it at 4-2, but things haven\u2019t gone according to plan. Next up? Five votes for Clemson, which is 3-3, and three votes each for LSU (still in it at 5-1, though hardly impressive) and Penn State (totally imploded and fired James Franklin<\/a>).<\/p>\n The remaining votes went to Ohio State (looking good?), Notre Dame (lost twice but not out of it) and Georgia (we\u2019ll see?).<\/p>\n So let\u2019s hit reset: 29 college football writers and editors at The Athletic were surveyed this week for our updated midseason predictions for the College Football Playoff, Heisman Trophy and conference championships \u2014 plus some more bold calls.<\/p>\n Who will win the national championship?<\/p>\n Here are our midseason picks compared to our preseason picks, plus Austin Mock\u2019s current odds for each team to win the title in The Athletic\u2019s projections model<\/a>:<\/p>\n 65.5%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 7.1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 22%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 20.7%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 0.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 13%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 3.4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 7.1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 10%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 3.4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 0.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 7%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 3.4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 0.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 6%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 3.4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 0.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 5%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 0.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 14%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 3.6%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 6%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 0.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 0.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 42.9%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 10.7%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 17.9%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 10.7%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n Our staff is rallying around undefeated No. 1 Ohio State for a second consecutive national championship, which isn\u2019t surprising. It has the best odds in Mock\u2019s projections, too, at 22 percent \u2014 8 points higher than anyone else \u2014 and has made winning look so easy that Ryan Day now has a higher career winning percentage than Knute Rockne<\/a>.<\/p>\n Last year, Texas was No. 1 and undefeated at midseason, and it was our top pick to go all the way with 50 percent of the vote. It went on to lose in the Playoff semifinals. Will things work out differently for the Buckeyes?<\/p>\n The consensus is usually wrong at midseason. Excluding the pandemic-altered 2020 season, just six of the past 20 AP No. 1 teams at midseason have gone on to win the national championship: 2022 Georgia, 2021 Georgia, 2017 Alabama, 2012 Alabama, 2009 Alabama and 2004 USC.<\/p>\n Last year\u2019s national champion, Ohio State, was ranked fourth at midseason, and it was second with 36.7 percent of our midseason vote. The furthest a team has come from behind in the polls at midseason to win a national title in the past 20 years? In the first year of the Playoff in 2014, Ohio State vaulted from No. 13 in mid-October to the championship.<\/p>\n Our second choice is AP No. 2 Miami, which is searching for its first national title since 2001. Six of 29 midseason voters picked the Canes. No other team got more than one vote: Notre Dame, Oregon, Texas A&M and, yes, Indiana, which has never finished higher than fourth in the polls.<\/p>\n Alabama, which is second in Mock\u2019s odds, received zero midseason national championship votes. And yet: The Crimson Tide are our most popular pick to lose the national title game, receiving 10 of 29 votes.<\/p>\n Who will lose the national title game?<\/p>\n Ohio State vs. Alabama is the most popular national championship matchup combination, with all eight of those voters calling for a Buckeyes win.<\/p>\n Six people voted for Miami vs. Ohio State, and three have Ohio State vs. Texas A&M.<\/p>\n Who will win the Heisman Trophy?<\/p>\n Fernando Mendoza<\/p>\n<\/td>\n QB<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 44.8%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n Ty Simpson<\/p>\n<\/td>\n QB<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 37.9%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n Carson Beck<\/p>\n<\/td>\n QB<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 6.9%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n Dante Moore<\/p>\n<\/td>\n QB<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 3.4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n Diego Pavia<\/p>\n<\/td>\n QB<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 3.4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n Jeremiah Smith<\/p>\n<\/td>\n WR<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 3.4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n Though Arch Manning was the preseason betting favorite and half of our staff picked Texas to win the national title, our Heisman choice in August was actually Ohio State superstar receiver Jeremiah Smith, who received more than half of the votes at the time.<\/p>\n Now, Ohio State is No. 1 and Smith is tied for the Big Ten lead with seven receiving touchdowns, but his numbers haven\u2019t been attention-grabbing enough for the Heisman race. Smith has 40 catches for 505 yards, with his two 100-yard games coming against Ohio and Grambling. It\u2019s enough to earn him second-team midseason All-America honors<\/a>, but he received just one midseason vote to win the Heisman.<\/p>\n Still, in a wide-open race, BetMGM gives<\/a> Smith the fourth-best odds behind Carson Beck, Ty Simpson and Fernando Mendoza.<\/p>\n Our midseason Heisman straw poll<\/a>, based on who staffers would vote to win right now, was topped by Mendoza \u2014 who would be Indiana\u2019s first winner \u2014 and Simpson. They also top our predictions here for who will actually win in December. Beck, the BetMGM favorite, received just two of our 29 votes.<\/p>\n How did our midseason Heisman picks work out last season? Pretty good, actually<\/a>. Our four October vote-getters were, in fact, the four finalists \u2014 Travis Hunter, Ashton Jeanty, Cam Ward and Dillon Gabriel \u2014 though the winner, Hunter, was merely third in our midseason predictions.<\/p>\n Conference championship races<\/p>\n ACC<\/p>\n 93.1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 54%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 6.9%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 14%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 11%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 9%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n All but two voters picked Clemson to win the ACC in the preseason. And now all but two voters have picked Miami.<\/p>\n The Hurricanes are in their 22nd season in the ACC but are still searching for their first conference championship. Miami was undefeated at this point last year, too, but it lost to Georgia Tech and then squandered an ACC title game bid by blowing a lead to Syracuse. Will this season be different<\/a>?<\/p>\n The only other two votes went to fellow unbeaten Georgia Tech, which trails Miami by 40 percentage points in Mock\u2019s model.<\/p>\n Either Clemson or Florida State has won 12 of the past 13 ACC titles, the lone exception being Pitt in 2021. A fresh conference champion appears likely.<\/p>\n Big 12<\/p>\n 93.1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 61%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 3.4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 7%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 3.4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 5%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 14%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 6%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n It was hard to write about the Big 12 title race in the preseason without calling it \u201cwide open.\u201d Our preseason picks reflected that; seven of 16 Big 12 teams received at least one vote to win the conference, none more than six votes for Texas Tech and Arizona State.<\/p>\n Naturally, no Power 4 team has a better chance to win its conference in Mock\u2019s model now than Texas Tech at 61 percent \u2014 and the Red Raiders equaled Miami in earning all but two conference title votes in our staff survey. Texas Tech is trying to win its first conference title since it was in the Southwest Conference in 1994, and so far, its offseason spending spree<\/a> is paying off.<\/p>\n Cincinnati and Baylor received one Big 12 title vote apiece, with none going to unbeaten BYU.<\/p>\n Big Ten<\/p>\n 86.2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 56%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 6.9%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 25%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 6.9%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 9%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 5%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 3%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n Penn State received 15 of 28 preseason votes to win its first Big Ten title since 2016. Now the Nittany Lions are 0-3 in conference games and have an interim coach<\/a>.<\/p>\n We\u2019re back to a familiar favorite in Ohio State, which hasn\u2019t actually won the Big Ten since 2020. All but four midseason votes went to the Buckeyes, with the others split between Indiana and Oregon, despite the Hoosiers\u2019 historic win over the Ducks in Eugene last Saturday<\/a>.<\/p>\n SEC<\/p>\n 55.2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 43%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 37.9%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 13%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 3.4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 14%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 3.4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 13%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 7%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n Who would have thought that Alabama would receive just two preseason SEC title votes, lose its opener to Florida State (which is now 3-3) and be our SEC favorite at midseason anyway?<\/p>\n Thanks to consecutive ranked wins over Georgia<\/a>, Vanderbilt<\/a> and Missouri<\/a>, and the emergence of Ty Simpson as a Heisman candidate at quarterback, the Crimson Tide are back in a familiar position atop the SEC projections here \u2014 and Mock\u2019s model agrees.<\/p>\n Texas A&M (11 voters) is the only other team to garner significant staff support for the SEC title, with one vote apiece going to Georgia and Ole Miss, who happen to play each other in Athens on Saturday. Neither Texas A&M nor Ole Miss has appeared in an SEC title game.<\/p>\n Reminder: The top five conference champions get an automatic bid to the Playoff, reserving at least one spot for a champion from the American, Mountain West, Conference USA, Sun Belt or MAC.<\/p>\n None of our 29 voters picked more than one G5 team to get into the field, and with byes no longer reserved for conference champions, nobody picked a G5 team to repeat Boise State\u2019s feat of being a top-four seed.<\/p>\n The American is widely considered the best G5 conference, so it\u2019s no surprise that it dominates our voting, with USF, Memphis and Tulane sweeping the votes. Mock\u2019s odds favor Tulane over Navy, USF and Memphis, with small chances for teams in the Sun Belt (James Madison) and Mountain West (UNLV, Boise State and San Diego State).<\/p>\n Who will make the College Football Playoff?<\/p>\n We asked each voter to seed their 12 Playoff picks. Using a points system (12 for a No. 1 seed, 11 for a No. 2 seed, etc.), we came up with our staff\u2019s bracket below.<\/p>\n Others receiving votes: Nebraska, Tulane, Utah, Washington, Missouri, Texas, Virginia, Vanderbilt, Cincinnati, Oklahoma, Baylor<\/p>\n After 41 teams received at least one Playoff vote in the preseason, we\u2019re down to just 28 teams on the board through seven weeks of the regular season. Among the teams receiving zero votes: Clemson, which was in 100 percent of preseason brackets, and Penn State, which was in all but one. Texas was also in all preseason submissions and appears in just two now.<\/p>\n Four teams appeared in all 29 brackets at midseason: Ohio State, Miami, Alabama and Texas Tech. Just behind them at 28 of 29 are Texas A&M, Indiana and Oregon, with Ole Miss at 26 and Georgia at 25. Despite starting 0-2, Notre Dame is the only other team to appear in more than half the brackets at 16 of 29.<\/p>\n Ohio State also received a first-round bye in all 29 brackets, with Miami (26), Indiana (20), Alabama (15), Texas A&M (14) and Texas Tech (nine) next up. Oregon, Georgia and Ole Miss are the only other teams predicted to get a bye, by one person each.<\/p>\n Revisiting our preseason hot takes<\/p>\nTeamMidseasonPreseasonMock’s odds<\/tr>\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n PlayerTeamPosVotes<\/tr>\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n TeamVotesMock’s odds<\/tr>\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n TeamVotesMock’s odds<\/tr>\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n TeamVotesMock’s odds<\/tr>\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n TeamVotesMock’s odds<\/tr>\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n