And so, with the conclusion of Decision Day, Major League Soccer’s 30th regular season is in the books.<\/p>\n
Let’s do our usual thing: In place of my typical Sunday night column, following Decision Day we look at where everybody stands heading into the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs. As usual, these teams are mostly in the order of what I think is their likelihood of winning, but what really matters is the tier designation.<\/p>\n
For teams that didn’t make the postseason, post-mortems have been trickling out over the past 10 days, with another big batch coming later this week. But here and now, into the playoffs we go\u2026<\/p>\n
Last year, heading into the postseason, Miami<\/a> had just won the Supporters\u2019 Shield and set a league record with 74 points while rocking a +30 goal differential. Elite across the board\u2026 as long as you didn\u2019t look too close.<\/p>\n For those who did look closely (including me! I\u2019m so smart<\/a>), it became obvious that last year\u2019s success was at least somewhat smoke and mirrors, as their underlying numbers were middling (+0.8 xG differential for the entire season). That made them feel ripe for an upset, and as it turns out\u2026<\/p>\n This year, of course, has been different. \u201cYeah, they haven\u2019t won a trophy!\u201d you cackle, because you are not a Miami fan and have delighted in the way they fell on their faces against the Whitecaps<\/a> in the Concacaf Champions Cup<\/a> semis, and the Sounders<\/a> in the Leagues Cup<\/a> final, and against Chicago<\/a> with their Shield hopes on the line. And I don\u2019t blame you! The league needs bad guys. I can\u2019t imagine rooting for this team if you\u2019re not a Miami fan.<\/p>\n But also, Miami did make it to the CCC semis and did make it to the Leagues Cup final, and did hang in the Shield race until almost the very end despite playing all those extra games. They also made it to the FIFA Club World Cup<\/a> knockouts, they’ve got Leo Messi<\/a> and Luis Su\u00e1rez<\/a>, and there’s the motivation of trying to send out retiring legends Sergio Busquets<\/a> and Jordi Alba<\/a> on a high note.<\/p>\n Most importantly, it is not smoke and mirrors this year! Their xG differential for 2025 is +18.5 \u2013 second in the East behind the Nashville<\/a> team they just humiliated and dead even with the Shield-winning Philadelphia Union<\/a>. They are, on both sides of the ball, a substantially better team than they were in 2024, and they just played their best half of the season. Hell, it might be the best half of anybody’s season. They were terrifying on Saturday night against the very team they will meet in Round One.<\/p>\n So when you say \u201cYeah, they haven\u2019t won a trophy!\u201d I say \u201cYeah, they haven\u2019t won a trophy \u2013 yet.\u201d<\/p>\n My Worry:<\/strong> While they have, in fact, improved quite a bit on both sides of the ball, their transition defense is still lol-worthy way too often.<\/p>\n That\u2019s point No. 1. Point No. 2 is that once things get away from them a little bit, they tend to spiral (especially against good teams) \u2013 hence the four-goal aggregate loss to the \u2018Caps, the 3-0 defeat in Seattle<\/a>, or the five goals they shipped<\/a> at home vs. the Fire.<\/p>\n There is, at times, a lack of mental toughness in this group that\u2019s kind of shocking. And I’m not entirely convinced they’ve moved past it despite what they inflicted on Nashville this weekend.<\/p>\n Also: 52 matches! Before a ball is even kicked in the playoffs! That\u2019s so many!<\/p>\n And finally\u2026 it\u2019s gonna be Rocco R\u00edos Novo<\/a> in goal, right? Right? Can\u2019t be Oscar Ustari<\/a>, can it?<\/p>\n To me, this has been the most impressive team in the league all year, one that\u2019s played \u2013 and imposed \u2013 a distinct style against virtually all comers despite having already played 48 games in four countries across three competitions. Along the way they\u2019ve lost and regained their captain, seen three-fourths of their starting backline felled by injury, sold their midfield metronome, lost their star No. 9 to injury (we don’t know for how long), developed a bunch of down-roster options (including several academy kids), and acquired one of the best playmakers in the history of the game.<\/p>\n They are fifth in the overall standings, first in goal differential, in a dead heat for first in expected goal differential, and are outright tops in both goal differential and expected goal differential against playoff teams:<\/p>\n Those numbers, as shown on the graphic, are from before Decision Day<\/a>, so it’s not finalized data. But still, you can see this team has just rocked playoff-caliber opponents, with most of that coming before Thomas M\u00fcller<\/a> arrived to turbo-charge the attack.<\/p>\n Until playing 10-v-11 on Decision Day, they hadn\u2019t lost in two-and-a-half months. They will absolutely be out for revenge against Dallas<\/a>.<\/p>\n My Worry:<\/strong> Will the central defense hold up?<\/p>\n That is my only concern with this team, one that only grew after Mathias Laborda<\/a>‘s red card on Saturday. I am so completely bought in on everything else about the ‘Caps, but going into the playoffs with your sixth and seventh-choice CBs? Yikes.<\/p>\n You can see who\u2019s neck-and-neck with Vancouver in the underlying numbers race, and that applies against both playoff teams and non-playoff teams. That\u2019s a change from recent seasons, as LAFC<\/a> were often mostly flat-track bullies who usually struggled when they tried to pick on someone their own size.<\/p>\n Not the case this year. Even before adding Son Heung-Min<\/a>, they were better against good teams in 2025. The best of those results was a pretty incredible 2-1 win<\/a> over Club Am\u00e9rica in what was essentially a final to qualify for the Club World Cup. You could argue it\u2019s one of the biggest wins any MLS team has ever registered.<\/p>\n And now, with Son and Denis Bouanga<\/a>\u2026 man, nobody wants to have to stop that.<\/p>\n My Worry:<\/strong> They\u2019ve been much better about using the ball to create chances this year, which means they can change it up in the playoffs a little bit. But head coach Steve Cherundolo still seems to prefer functional ball movers to true creativity in those spots, which can make them a little predictable and one-note. More so than any of the other teams in this tier.<\/p>\n Two match-winners in Hany Mukhtar<\/a> and Sam Surridge<\/a>, a deep and reliable central midfield, and Walker Zimmerman<\/a> is healthy now after battling injuries all season long. Zimmerman\u2019s not quite the player he was two years ago, but he still elevates this team both from the run of play and on set pieces.<\/p>\n They\u2019ve also won a trophy<\/a> already this year, beating Austin<\/a> on the road in the US Open Cup<\/a> final. Along the way, they beat the absolute brakes off of the Shield-winning Union in the semifinals \u2013 real \u201cthere was only one team on the field!\u201d stuff. That\u2019s a very impressive win.<\/p>\n They\u2019re not as deep as the other teams in this group, which limited them in the regular season. But in a short tournament with plenty of rest between games, that\u2019s just not as much of a handicap. Especially so since they\u2019ve shown the ability, under B.J. Callaghan, to toggle between game models depending upon the situation. I think they\u2019re probably not an easy scout.<\/p>\n Two other notes. First, here\u2019s the games played tally for the teams in this group:<\/p>\n Nashville? 39. They\u2019ll have their legs in a way the other top teams don\u2019t.<\/p>\n Second, four of the past five MLS Cup winners (including each of the past three) failed to qualify for the playoffs in the previous season. The \u2018Yotes, of course, watched last season\u2019s playoffs from home (Philly, Austin and Dallas are the others who get this boost).<\/p>\n My Worry:<\/strong> They have no reliable third goalscorer. Hany and Surridge have combined for 47 goals across all competitions; nobody else on the roster has more than four.<\/p>\n If the DPs suddenly slump, they\u2019re cooked. And even if they don’t slump, this team is not really equipped to win a shootout, as that Miami loss showed. Guess who they’ve got in Round One? Yeah.<\/p>\n Plus… one point from two games post-Open Cup. Is that a title hangover I see?<\/p>\n They were awesome in the Club World Cup despite losing all three games to Botafogo (the Copa Libertadores champs), PSG (the UEFA Champions League Champs) and Atl\u00e9tico Madrid (Atl\u00e9tico freaking Madrid). They spun the confidence generated by those performances against three of the ~15 best teams in the world into a two-month blitz in which they went 10W-1L-4D across all competitions, culminating with a dominant 3-0 win over Miami in the Leagues Cup final. Their goal differential over those 15 games was +24.<\/p>\n That stretch is the best I\u2019ve seen an MLS team play this year. Period. And they were doing it while constantly on short rest, and constantly having to rotate their squad due to injuries and absences. Remember: In that final they played without their DP 9 (and their backup 9, who happens to be their leading goalscorer) and DP 10, as well as their starting left back.<\/p>\n And they buried the Herons.<\/p>\n They\u2019re in this tier because we\u2019ve seen them do it against the best.<\/p>\n My Worry:<\/strong> They were also without their starting \u2018keeper in Leagues Cup, which was by choice. I think there\u2019s a pretty good case to keep making that choice, but I am close to certain that Brian Schmetzer will stick with Stefan Frei<\/a> in goal over Andrew Thomas<\/a>.<\/p>\n Three other personnel concerns:<\/p>\n I have a real feeling that the Sounders have already peaked this year, just like the Crew heading into last season\u2019s playoffs. But I\u2019m keeping them in this tier because my god, were they terrifying all summer long, and there’s a chance they can hit that level again.<\/p>\n The Union are deserving Shield winners<\/a>. Week after week, when other teams would drop their level, Philly would come out with fire in their eyes and the throttle cranked to 110% percent, imposing their will on whoever they were playing. Other teams saw D.C.<\/a> and took their foot off the gas, trying to ease to a win; Philly saw D.C. and said \u201clet\u2019s score a touchdown.\u201d<\/p>\n They have arguably the best center back pairing in the league, arguably the best fullbacks, and arguably the best d-mids. They have one of the three or four greatest \u2018keepers in MLS history, and a lot of attackers who\u2019ve scored goals this year.<\/p>\n They have a clear, defined style, and everybody bought in, week after week after week. That’s how you win the Shield.<\/p>\n My Worry:<\/strong> That’s not how you win the Cup.<\/p>\n That style \u2013 based upon forcing bad turnovers and punishing sloppy, hesitant play \u2013 is demonstrably more effective in the regular season than in the playoffs, when by definition you\u2019re facing teams much less prone to bad turnovers and hesitant, sloppy play, and where you\u2019re almost certainly not going to have any sort of pronounced intensity advantage.<\/p>\n What works great against the D.C.s and Atlantas<\/a> of the world is much less effective in big games against big teams. This time of year, you need to be able to win with top-end roster quality, and the Union lack that.<\/p>\n To that end, know what Philly\u2019s record in all competitions was against the Tier 1 group? 0W-5L-1D, with a -13 goal differential. They’re basically the opposite of the ‘Caps.<\/p>\n Again: this team 100% deserved to win the Shield, which I think is the hardest and best domestic trophy to win. I just don\u2019t think they have the top-end talent to follow it up by winning MLS Cup as well.<\/p>\n Polar opposite game model from Philly, which prioritizes staying on the ball and staying out of physical duels. Which isn\u2019t to say they can\u2019t win those \u2013 San Diego<\/a> are actually very good in that area \u2013 it\u2019s just not how they want the game to be determined.<\/p>\n The way they want the game to be determined is by getting on the ball, knocking it around deep in midfield, pulling the opponents upfield, and then releasing those brilliant wingers, Anders Dreyer<\/a> and Chucky Lozano<\/a> (if healthy!), in behind.<\/p>\n They have beaten Seattle, Vancouver, Nashville and LAFC \u2013 twice! \u2013 like that. When things are going great they\u2019re really, really excellent.<\/p>\n My Worry:<\/strong> Things were a lot more excellent in the first half of the season, when they logged most of those wins. Since July they are 8W-6L-3D across all competitions, with a +7 goal differential, and were actually under water on expected goals until steamrolling the Timbers this weekend.<\/p>\n Part of that is injuries and attrition \u2013 they\u2019re an expansion team, so it makes sense that they\u2019re not quite as deep as the other teams in the 60-points neighborhood. Part of it is that they\u2019ve not found a replacement for Milan Iloski<\/a> at the 9 after parting ways with him following his blazing-hot spring (how different would the table look if a different decision had been made there?).<\/p>\n Part of it, though, is that the game model isn\u2019t as novel as it was to start the season. There\u2019s film now; nobody (except Portland<\/a>, I guess) will be surprised anymore.<\/p>\n They have more attacking talent than\u2026 anyone? Three guys, in Evander<\/a>, K\u00e9vin Denkey<\/a> and Brenner<\/a> (and maybe a fourth in Luca Orellano<\/a>) who can go out and just brute force a win against anybody.<\/p>\n They have a DP-caliber d-mid (provided he\u2019s healthy). They have a match-winner in goal. They have spent more on center backs than anybody else in MLS. All of these guys are good-to-great players.<\/p>\n On paper, they should be a dominant club.<\/p>\n My Worry:<\/strong> On grass, they have almost never looked like a cohesive unit. Know how we were all crowing about Miami outperforming their underlying numbers to an unsustainable degree last year? Miami\u2019s per-90 xG differential was +0.02. They were mid.<\/p>\n Cincy, this year, are -0.24! They\u2019ve been bad!! They are so gappy \u2013 so easy to move the ball against \u2013 and allow so many good chances on one side of the ball. And then everything on the other side of the ball seems to come down to individual brilliance.<\/p>\n That brilliance can be absolutely blinding at times.<\/p>\n Can Evander et al go out and win you four straight playoff rounds? Yes. They’re that talented.<\/p>\n Should you expect them to? I don’t.<\/p>\n The Pigeons were mostly scuffling along through the first half of the year, and if anything, they looked like a good bet to drop in the standings since their second-half schedule was brutal.<\/p>\n But they added DP playmaker\/winger Nicol\u00e1s Fern\u00e1ndez Mercau<\/a> as soon as the summer window opened and have registered these wins since then: at Orlando, vs. Nashville, at Cincinnati, at Chicago, vs. Columbus, and vs. Charlotte.<\/p>\n They also got trucked 4-0<\/a> by Miami during that stretch, and then lost a very tight 1-0 match in Chester<\/a> two weeks ago before their 2-1 Decision Day loss<\/a> to the Sounders on a pair of set pieces. So they\u2019re far from perfect.<\/p>\n But they have been demonstrably very good against the types of teams they have to beat to get to the big game.<\/p>\n My Worry:<\/strong> \u201cAlonso Mart\u00ednez<\/a> and Hannes Wolf<\/a>\u201d isn\u2019t exactly \u201cMessi and Su\u00e1rez\u201d or \u201cSon and Bouanga\u201d or\u2026 literally any of the top goalscoring duos from non-Philly teams in the top two tiers. Top-end quality, right?<\/p>\n And as great an addition as Fern\u00e1ndez Mercau has been, it\u2019s not like he\u2019s fixed that: he\u2019s got just three goals in around 1,000 minutes himself.<\/p>\n Really good team. Not enough firepower.<\/p>\n When they\u2019re in full flow, this team\u2019s still able to get on the ball, control the game and create chances against anybody. They effectively force you to play the contest on their terms, and over the past several years, we\u2019ve seen them repeatedly do this in big games not just against the best in MLS, but against the best in the region.<\/p>\n Let them do it to you, and there\u2019s a good chance you\u2019re going home.<\/p>\n Sean Zawadzki<\/a> is back on the field looking healthy, and they\u2019ve got the added incentive of sending the legendary Darlington Nagbe<\/a> out on a high note. They looked really, really good in the final couple of games of the season.<\/p>\n My Worry:<\/strong> Patrick Schulte<\/a> is slumping, the center backs aren\u2019t great at defending in their own box, and their game model has been brittle this year \u2013 as in, easier to disrupt, and then once it\u2019s disrupted the whole thing falls apart and you\u2019re making them play on your terms \u2013 in a way it hadn\u2019t been the prior two.<\/p>\n Diego Rossi<\/a> is less than 100%, Wessam Abou Ali<\/a> is likely done until 2026, and D\u00e1niel Gazdag<\/a>\u2026 that was a very nice bounce-back against the Red Bulls<\/a>. Is there more to come? I’m not convinced.<\/p>\n Hard to win when there are so many questions around your DP attackers.<\/p>\n Like Philly, Columbus and San Diego, Minnesota<\/a> have an unusual game model that you can\u2019t quite prepare for in training: they get sub-40% possession, tilt the field less than anyone, and turn every throw-in or free kick in the attacking half into a \u201cget \u2018er into the mixer!\u201d situation.<\/p>\n They also have a match-winning goalkeeper. Dayne St. Clair<\/a> will likely win Goalkeeper of the Year, and if he gets hot over the next month, he can win a game\u2026 or two\u2026 or three\u2026 or four. All on his own.<\/p>\n My Worry:<\/strong> Strike one: They\u2019re just 4W-4L-2D in their past 10 across all competitions, a stretch that includes maybe the worst loss anybody\u2019s taken this year: 2-1 at home<\/a> against Austin in extra time of the Open Cup semis.<\/p>\n Strike two: Since selling Tani Oluwaseyi<\/a> and losing Kelvin Yeboah<\/a> to injury, it\u2019s tough to make a case that they\u2019ve got enough in attack against the types of defenses they\u2019ll have to face in the playoffs (which is to say, I\u2019m not reading much into what they did against KC<\/a> in their regular-season home finale). That lack of punch up top means they\u2019ve gone to a 4-4-2 with a pair of false 9s, which\u2026 yeah. I\u2019m skeptical. And what we’ve seen the past couple of weeks (including getting Saturday in Carson) has not shaken me out of my skepticism.<\/p>\n I think strike three is the game model, which is too limited. But hey, I\u2019ve been wrong before! So we\u2019ll see.<\/p>\n At their very best, they\u2019ve been so good this year \u2013 Mart\u00edn Ojeda<\/a> playing like a Landon Donovan MLS MVP candidate, Luis Muriel<\/a> looking like a Best XI-caliber playmaking No. 9, Pedro Gallese<\/a> turning the clock back five years, Eduard Atuesta<\/a> and C\u00e9sar Ara\u00fajo<\/a> dominating central midfield and Alex Freeman<\/a> presenting an overlapping threat like few fullbacks in the entire world.<\/p>\n I couldn\u2019t quite find an artful way to work Marco Pa\u0161ali\u0107<\/a> into that verse. But he\u2019s been really good \u2013 15g\/6a across all competitions.<\/p>\n My Worry:<\/strong> We saw them get to the semis of the Leagues Cup and collapse, first against Miami (who\u2019d they\u2019d previously dominated) and then, somehow, against the Galaxy in the third-place match with a spot in the Concacaf Champions Cup<\/a> on the line.<\/p>\n Ara\u00fajo\u2019s been hurt most of the second half of the year and now Robin Jansson<\/a> is, too. Gallese, after turning the clock back five years, has now pushed it forward 10 or 15. It’s grim.<\/p>\n Even if they were all healthy and playing well, though, here\u2019s the real bottleneck: Muriel has to be cooking for it all to work at a championship level, and he hasn’t scored a goal in the past two months.<\/p>\n Do you believe he can score, say, six over the the next two? That\u2019s about what it\u2019d take.<\/p>\n Any team with an excellent central defense (check), an excellent goalkeeper (check) and a couple of match-winners up top (uhhh… that was a “check” until the final minutes against Philly; more on that below) can get hot and go on an extended winning streak. Under the right conditions, that streak could even hit something like, say, nine games. Which is a whole hell of a lot!<\/p>\n Obviously, we have seen Charlotte<\/a> do this. They are murder on the break and very good on set pieces, and generally don\u2019t give up cheap goals. It\u2019s the recipe for a high floor.<\/p>\n My Worry:<\/strong> And yet they\u2019re actually under water on expected goal differential on the season, and even had a negative xGD during that nine-game streak.<\/p>\n So, how did it happen? Kristijan Kahlina<\/a>. He was, even by his own high standards, abso-freakinglutely unbelievable during those couple of months.<\/p>\n It also happened because the schedule was kind of soft \u2013 lots of home games against lots of non-playoff teams. That\u2019s obviously not going to happen over the next couple of months.<\/p>\n And now they’ll be down to one match-winner for part of the playoffs with Wilfried Zaha<\/a> suspended for their Round One opener against NYCFC (what a way to let the team down with a petulant red) and Pep Biel<\/a> still hurt. They\u2019re not precisely limping into the playoffs, but they\u2019re not precisely flying, either.<\/p>\n They\u2019ve been one of the more fun and open attacking teams in MLS this season, capable of turning any game into the sort of up-and-down affair that can, in theory, suck even the most disciplined teams in.<\/p>\n I\u2019m not sure anybody in the league is as good at creating simultaneous attacking width and depth. You have to be ready to account for everything when facing this team.<\/p>\n My Worry:<\/strong> They played 21 games against playoff teams this year, across all competitions. They won just seven of them. It\u2019s been better down the stretch with wins against Minnesota, Columbus and Miami (they really did break their playoff drought in style), but I\u2019m putting more stock into the larger sample size.<\/p>\n They have the worst defense in the East by the underlying numbers, and the third-worst defense in the East by the actual numbers. I just don\u2019t think it\u2019s going to be good enough.<\/p>\n Just getting here is really impressive! Dallas looked dead and buried by June, and then more deader and more buried-er after Lucho Acosta pouted his way into a transfer when the summer window opened. They built this roster around the idea of having an elite No. 10, right? There\u2019s no 10 in this group anymore, elite or otherwise.<\/p>\n They charged through the second half of the season anyway. But then they picked up a loss and a couple of crucial suspensions heading into Decision Day, so\u2026 the bell finally tolled, right?<\/p>\n Nope. This team\u2019s got real resilience and mental strength, a good-enough defense, a really good goalkeeper, and also have a Best XI-caliber center forward who can win you a game or two. They are a tough out.<\/p>\n My Worry:<\/strong> The only hand they can play is to sit deep, absorb pressure and hit on the break. Or set pieces.<\/p>\n They\u2019re good at it \u2013 just look at their record since getting rid of Lucho. But even against 10-man Vancouver, they\u2019re out there just defending for their lives the entire time.<\/p>\n No one\u2019s ever won MLS Cup that way. Even 2010 Colorado<\/a> had a bit of soccer in their boots.<\/p>\n Austin have shown their bona fides in a knockout tournament, fighting all the way to the US Open Cup final before taking that heartbreaking loss to Nashville. They\u2019re generally really good at getting numbers behind the ball and keeping their shape, are good on set pieces, and in Owen Wolff<\/a> have one of the most underappreciated attackers in the league.<\/p>\n My Worry:<\/strong> Myrto Uzuni<\/a> should be a match-winner in this league. He mostly hasn\u2019t been so far, though, and neither has Osman Bukari<\/a>.<\/p>\n They also lack the kind of midfield creativity top teams have. So when a team falls apart like San Jose<\/a> fall apart, Austin can take advantage. But can they take it to a good team? Nah.<\/p>\n They won enough in the first half of the year to build a pretty nice cushion. James Pantemis<\/a> was awesome, they stopped giving up set-piece goals, and Finn Surman<\/a> is a savant in emergency defense.<\/p>\n My Worry:<\/strong> Haven\u2019t won much since then. The forwards don\u2019t score, the wingers don\u2019t score, and the midfielders don\u2019t score. Pantemis hasn\u2019t really been the same since a mid-season leg injury and is now mostly platooning with Maxime Cr\u00e9peau<\/a>, who\u2019s only been ok.<\/p>\n Since a 1-0 win<\/a> over Austin on Matchday 2, they\u2019ve faced 16 playoff teams. They\u2019ve managed one win. Feels pertinent.<\/p>\n Positively charged down the stretch with a\u2026 3W-6L-1D record over their final 10 games. Which, it turns out, was just barely good enough, as they edged out San Jose for ninth in the West.<\/p>\n They\u2019ve got some goalscorers and some playmakers, and they\u2019ve been here before. A lot, as a matter of fact: this is their fifth-straight postseason appearance, which is the most in the West.<\/p>\n My Worry:<\/strong> The underlying numbers say they\u2019re a bottom-five team in the league and honestly\u2026 yeah. I don\u2019t think that\u2019s super inaccurate based on their body of work this year. They just managed to win a few games on the margins because of Rafael Cabral<\/a> in net, and got hot for six weeks at the start of summer \u2013 a stretch that included a crucial, it turns out, 2-1 win<\/a> over San Jose.<\/p>\n\n
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