{"id":321615,"date":"2025-10-21T16:43:19","date_gmt":"2025-10-21T16:43:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/321615\/"},"modified":"2025-10-21T16:43:19","modified_gmt":"2025-10-21T16:43:19","slug":"top-analyst-says-china-is-playing-a-key-role-in-the-price-of-gold-going-through-the-roof-and-hes-got-the-data-to-prove-it","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/321615\/","title":{"rendered":"Top analyst says China is playing a \u2018key role\u2019 in the price of gold going through the roof, and he\u2019s got the data to prove it"},"content":{"rendered":"

China has emerged as a critical force propelling gold prices to record highs in 2025, according to one of the most influential analysts on Wall Street. Torsten Slok<\/a>, Apollo Global Management\u2019s chief economist who is renowned for his pithy, incisive daily email, The Daily Spark, highlighted on Tuesday that China\u2019s impact goes beyond central bank buying; it also involves arbitrage trading, robust household demand, and safe-haven investment behavior, and he produces convincing data<\/a> backing these claims. Against a backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainty, Slok notes that at this rate, global central banks will soon hold more gold than U.S. dollars, the world\u2019s reserve currency.<\/p>\n

\u201cChina is playing a key role in the ongoing rise in gold prices because of central bank buying, arbitrage trading, and increased speculative and safe-haven demand among Chinese households,\u201d Slok wrote in his Tuesday Daily Spark,including four charts<\/a> that prove his point. He included a fifth showing that \u201chigher business uncertainty in the U.S. is also pushing gold prices up.\u201d <\/p>\n

Slok\u2019s comments came with the kind of uncanny timing familiar to market-watchers: on the morning of a sell-off against a strengthening dollar that marked gold\u2019s biggest slump in 12 years<\/a>, down as much as 6.3% after the previous day\u2019s peak of $4,381.52 an ounce. \u201cIt\u2019s during corrections that a market\u2019s true strength is revealed, and this time should be no different,\u201d\u00a0Ole Hansen, commodities strategist at Saxo Bank AS, told Bloomberg of the sudden cool-off. Gold was down\u00a04.78%\u00a0to $4,151.20\u00a0an ounce at 12:10 pm ET, still up more than 55% year-to-date.<\/p>\n

Gold\u2019s 50% jump in 2025 marked a seminal moment: It crossed the $4,000 an ounce threshold after President Donald Trump enacted a 100% tariff on China, severely disrupting global trade and eroding confidence in the greenback. As the dollar depreciates and U.S. stocks slump, gold shines brighter as a safe asset. Veteran analyst Ed Yardeni<\/a> forecasts a price of $5,000 for 2026 and as much as $10,000 by 2028 if current trends persist\u2014citing the \u201cdebasement trade\u201d that favors gold and Bitcoin when fiat currencies risk inflation and systemic instability.<\/p>\n

Other reporting adds evidence to Slok\u2019s findings. The People\u2019s Bank of China<\/a> has been a relentless purchaser of gold, marking its 11th consecutive monthly buy this September, per commodities news site Kitco<\/a>. China\u2019s officially reported reserves reached 2,264 tonnes by mid-2025<\/a>, but industry consensus suggests that real holdings may be even greater owing to underreporting\u2014a tactic often employed for strategic advantage. This central bank buying is not just a statistical curiosity; it establishes a price floor that signals institutional and private investors to follow suit, reinforcing demand cycles.\u200b<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Beyond official reserves, Chinese consumers are fueling the rally. Gold withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange surged in September<\/a>, hitting a monthly tally of 118 tonnes, up both month over month and year over year. Chinese gold ETFs saw net inflows in September, and gold futures trading volumes have spiked notably\u2014indicating a powerful combination of household safe-haven demand and speculative trading within China itself. This growing involvement of retail investors magnifies China\u2019s effect on global gold pricing.\u200b<\/p>\n

Slok cites the China Financial Futures Exchange in reporting that the gold stock level in China has soared throughout 2025, and Bloomberg data shows that household demand for gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is also surging. This indicates that far beyond whatever the People\u2019s Bank of China is doing, Chinese households are driving significant activity, as the China-U.S. trade war rumbles on. Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump are due to meet soon with Xi imposing new restrictions on rare earths access and Trump threatening 100% new tariffs in response\u2014before seeming to back off.<\/p>\n

\"\"Global ripple effects: U.S. uncertainty and beyond<\/p>\n

While Chinese buying is the dominant catalyst, increased business uncertainty in the U.S. has added fuel to the fire. As economic volatility and geopolitical risk rise\u2014exacerbated by U.S.-China trade tensions, dollar depreciation, and interest rate cuts\u2014American investors have joined the move into gold, driving up prices even further. Leading institutions, including Goldman Sachs, have raised forecasts for gold, projecting prices as high as $4,900 per ounce for December 2026, well above current record levels. When analysts combine these factors with Slok\u2019s data, the result is a compelling case: China\u2019s gold moves are the linchpin, but the effect is global.<\/p>\n

\u200bSlok\u2019s analysis echoes observations<\/a> from Goldman Sachs commodities strategist Lina Thomas and Canadian businessman and legendary gold investor Pierre Lassonde, who pointed out earlier this month that today\u2019s gold rally is grounded in fundamentals, not hype. Thomas emphasized that economic instability\u2014especially tariff-induced uncertainty and dollar depreciation\u2014has driven gold up 65% in 2025, reaching a stunning $4,242 per ounce. With the U.S. and China locked in a trade standoff, both central banks and private investors are diversifying away from the dollar, further supercharging gold demand. <\/p>\n

\u200bThomas and Lassonde drew explicit parallels to the 1970s, when Nixon\u2019s shock termination of the gold standard and subsequent fiscal turmoil sent gold prices accelerating by over 2,300% across the decade. Lassonde describes the current moment as \u201cthe equivalent year 1976 right now of that four-year bull market,\u201d suggesting that the rally could have years left to run.<\/p>\n

\u200bEven traditional gold skeptics have joined the rush. JPMorgan Chase<\/a> CEO Jamie Dimon, long unconvinced of gold\u2019s merit, admitted in conversation with Fortune editor-in-chief Alyson Shontell<\/a> that \u201cThis is one of the few times in my life it\u2019s semi-rational to have some in your portfolio\u201d\u2014a marked change driven by the kind of global uncertainty and market breakdown also evident in Slok\u2019s analysis. <\/p>\n

Citadel CEO Ken Griffin, the billionaire hedge fund founder, is sounding a note similar to Dimon\u2019s, but he\u2019s not happy about it.\u00a0\u201cI now view gold as a safe harbor asset in a way that the dollar used to be viewed. That\u2019s what\u2019s really concerning to me,\u201d Griffin\u00a0told<\/a>\u00a0Bloomberg earlier this month.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Another hedge fund billionaire, Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio, said earlier this month that investors\u00a0should put 15% of their portfolio into gold<\/a>, calling it \u201ca very excellent diversifier.\u201d\u00a0China seems to agree.<\/p>\n

[This report has been updated to include Tuesday trading data on gold\u2019s biggest slump in over a decade<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"China has emerged as a critical force propelling gold prices to record highs in 2025, according to one…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":321616,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[64,74,16346,524,9401,4053,67,132,68],"class_list":{"0":"post-321615","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-business","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-china","10":"tag-commodities","11":"tag-currency","12":"tag-gold","13":"tag-tariffs-and-trade","14":"tag-united-states","15":"tag-unitedstates","16":"tag-us"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/115413163295588491","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/321615","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=321615"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/321615\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/321616"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=321615"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=321615"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=321615"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}