{"id":322547,"date":"2025-10-22T01:04:26","date_gmt":"2025-10-22T01:04:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/322547\/"},"modified":"2025-10-22T01:04:26","modified_gmt":"2025-10-22T01:04:26","slug":"israels-lower-level-conflict-in-lebanon-might-show-whats-ahead-for-gaza","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/322547\/","title":{"rendered":"Israel’s lower-level conflict in Lebanon might show what’s ahead for Gaza"},"content":{"rendered":"

BEIRUT (AP) \u2014 As a tenuous ceasefire<\/a> took hold in Gaza<\/a> this month, Israel launched more airstrikes on southern Lebanon<\/a> \u2014 11 months into a ceasefire there.<\/p>\n

The bombardment of a construction equipment business<\/a> killed a Syrian passerby, wounded seven people including two women, and destroyed millions of dollars worth of bulldozers and excavators.<\/p>\n

The Oct. 11 strikes would be an anomaly in most countries not at war. But near-daily Israeli attacks have become the new normal in Lebanon, nearly a year after a U.S.-brokered truce halted the latest conflict between Israel and Hezbollah<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Some see a likely blueprint for the Gaza ceasefire, with ongoing but lower-intensity conflicts. On Sunday, Israel struck Gaza after it said Hamas fired at its troops, in the first major test<\/a> of the U.S.-brokered truce.<\/p>\n

Mona Yacoubian, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank, described the Lebanon scenario as a \u201clessfire\u201d rather than a ceasefire.<\/p>\n

Lebanon \u201ccould well serve as the model for Gaza, essentially giving leeway to Israeli forces to strike whenever they deem a threat without a full resumption of conflict,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

A ceasefire with no clear enforcement<\/p>\n

The latest Israel-Hezbollah conflict began the day after the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on Israel triggered the war in Gaza. The militant group Hezbollah, largely based in southern Lebanon, began firing rockets into Israel in support of Hamas and the Palestinians.<\/p>\n

Israel responded with airstrikes and shelling. The low-level conflict escalated into full-scale war in September 2024.<\/p>\n

The ceasefire on Nov. 27, 2024, required Lebanon to stop armed groups from attacking Israel and Israel to halt \u201coffensive\u201d military actions in Lebanon. It said Israel and Lebanon can act in \u201cself-defense,\u201d without elaborating.<\/p>\n

Both sides can report alleged violations to a monitoring committee of the U.S., France, Israel, Lebanon and the U.N. peacekeeping force known as UNIFIL, but the deal is vague on enforcement.<\/p>\n

In practice, Israel has largely taken enforcement into its own hands, asserting that its strikes in Lebanon target Hezbollah militants, facilities and weapons.<\/p>\n

Israel says it aims to stop the badly weakened group from rebuilding<\/a>. Lebanese officials say the attacks obstruct its efforts to get Hezbollah to disarm by giving the group a pretext to hold onto its weapons.<\/p>\n

Lebanon also says Israel\u2019s strikes, including the Oct. 11 one, often harm civilians and destroy infrastructure unrelated to Hezbollah.<\/p>\n

Lebanon\u2019s health ministry has reported more than 270 people killed and around 850 wounded by Israeli military actions since the ceasefire. As of Oct. 9, the U.N. human rights office had verified that 107 of those killed were civilians or noncombatants, said spokesperson Thameen Al-Kheetan.<\/p>\n

No Israelis have been killed by fire from Lebanon since the ceasefire.<\/p>\n

From Nov. 27, 2024, to mid-October, UNIFIL detected around 950 projectiles fired from Israel into Lebanon and 100 Israeli airstrikes, spokesperson Kandice Ardiel said. During the same period, it reported 21 projectiles fired from Lebanon toward Israel. Hezbollah has claimed one attack since the ceasefire.<\/p>\n

Conflicting narratives<\/p>\n

After the Oct. 11 strikes in Msayleh, Israel\u2019s army said it hit \u201cengineering equipment intended for the reconstruction of terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon.\u201d<\/p>\n

Lebanese authorities, Hezbollah and the equipment\u2019s owner disputed that.<\/p>\n

\u201cEveryone in Lebanon, from all different sects, comes to buy from us,\u201d owner Ahmad Tabaja told journalists. \u201cWhat have we done wrong?\u201d<\/p>\n

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun called the strikes \u201cblatant aggression against civilian facilities.\u201d Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri accused Israel of seeking to prevent communities\u2019 reconstruction. Lebanon complained to the U.N. Security Council.<\/p>\n

A few days later, Israel struck a cement factory and a quarry, claiming Hezbollah planned to use it to rebuild its infrastructure.<\/p>\n

Last month, an Israeli strike hit a motorcycle and a car carrying a family in Bint Jbeil. It killed Shadi Charara, a car salesman<\/a>, three of his children \u2014 including 18-month-old twins \u2014 and the motorcyclist, and badly wounded Charara\u2019s wife and oldest daughter. It was among the highest death tolls since the ceasefire, sparking particular outrage because of the children.<\/p>\n

\u201cMy brother was a civilian and his children and wife are civilians, and they have nothing to do with politics,\u201d said sister Amina Charara.<\/p>\n

Israel\u2019s military said it was targeting a Hezbollah militant, whom it did not name, but acknowledged that civilians were killed.<\/p>\n

Even when the target is a known Hezbollah member, the military necessity can be disputed.<\/p>\n

Earlier this month, an Israeli drone strike killed a Hezbollah member who was blinded last year in Israel\u2019s exploding pagers attack<\/a>, along with his wife. Israel\u2019s army said Hassan Atwi was a key official in Hezbollah\u2019s Aerial Defense Unit. Hezbollah officials said he had played no military role since losing his eyesight.<\/p>\n

The end of \u2018mutual deterrence\u2019<\/p>\n

Hezbollah was formed in 1982, with Iranian backing, to fight Israel\u2019s occupation of southern Lebanon at the time. Israeli forces withdrew in 2000, and Hezbollah grew into one of the region\u2019s most powerful non-state armed groups.<\/p>\n

In 2006, Hezbollah and Israel fought a month-long war that ended in a draw. For the next 17 years, \u201cthere was a tense calm … that was largely due to mutual deterrence,\u201d said Nicholas Blanford, a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council\u2019s Middle East program.<\/p>\n

Strikes in Lebanon were generally understood to be off limits. Both sides wanted to avoid another damaging war. Now that equation has changed.<\/p>\n

Though Blanford said Hezbollah could still deliver blows to Israel, the group\u2019s \u201cdeterrence has been shattered by the recent war,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

In an interview with The Associated Press last month, Hezbollah political official Mohammad Fneish said the prospect of coexisting with daily Israeli attacks is \u201cnot acceptable.\u201d<\/p>\n

But the group has largely limited itself to calling on Lebanon\u2019s government to pressure Israel with what Fneish called \u201cits political, diplomatic or other capabilities.\u201d<\/p>\n

He added: \u201cIf things develop further, then the resistance leadership is studying matters, and all options are open.\u201d<\/p>\n

Yacoubian, the analyst, said she didn\u2019t see the situation in Lebanon changing any time soon, \u201cbarring a breakthrough in behind-the-scenes negotiations brokered by the U.S.\u201d<\/p>\n

With the Gaza ceasefire, she said, the difference could be the \u201csignificant role\u201d of fellow mediators Qatar, Egypt and Turkey.<\/p>\n

___<\/p>\n

Associated Press journalist Ahmad Mantash in Msayleh, Lebanon, contributed to this report.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"BEIRUT (AP) \u2014 As a tenuous ceasefire took hold in Gaza this month, Israel launched more airstrikes on…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":322548,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[97,161232,132252,4219,57,161231,4783,3464,99,3462,62317,13192,3463,161230,161234,50,161233,132249,96,107],"class_list":{"0":"post-322547","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news","8":"tag-2024-2025-mideast-wars","9":"tag-ahmad-tabaja","10":"tag-amina-charara","11":"tag-crime","12":"tag-general-news","13":"tag-hassan-atwi","14":"tag-hezbollah","15":"tag-international-agreements","16":"tag-israel","17":"tag-israel-government","18":"tag-joseph-aoun","19":"tag-lebanon","20":"tag-mideast-wars","21":"tag-mohammad-fneish","22":"tag-mona-yacoubian","23":"tag-news","24":"tag-nicholas-blanford","25":"tag-shadi-charara","26":"tag-war-and-unrest","27":"tag-world-news"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/115415133146268803","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/322547","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=322547"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/322547\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/322548"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=322547"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=322547"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=322547"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}