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<\/p>\nLOS ANGELES \u2014 As Clayton Kershaw approaches history, one of his few peers laid out the staggering math in simple terms.<\/p>\n
\u201cI mean, 15 years of 200 strikeouts? You start thinking about how long you\u2019ve been doing it,\u201d said Justin Verlander, who has 3,471 career strikeouts. \u201cTo me, it put things in perspective a lot.\u201d<\/p>\n
Only 19 men in baseball history can lay claim to 3,000 career strikeouts, five fewer than have won 300 games. Only two active pitchers have crossed the threshold that Kershaw will inevitably reach.<\/p>\n
Of those in the 3,000 club, only Steve Carlton, Randy Johnson and CC Sabathia pitched left-handed. Only Walter Johnson and Bob Gibson got there exclusively with one club, as Kershaw can do for the Los Angeles Dodgers with three strikeouts on Wednesday against the Chicago White Sox.<\/p>\n
The milestone is rare enough, and becoming rarer. Max Scherzer is the most recent 3,000 K member, accomplishing the feat while Kershaw\u2019s teammate in 2021. Verlander reached the mark while with the Houston Astros in 2019. Only two other active pitchers \u2014 Atlanta\u2019s Chris Sale (2,528 strikeouts) and the New York Yankees\u2019 Gerrit Cole (2,251) \u2014 are even within 750.<\/p>\n
As the sport grapples with declining starting pitcher usage and spiking injury rates, it\u2019s worth wondering: Will Kershaw be the last for the foreseeable future?<\/p>\n
\u201cThere are a few guys left \u2026 the Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubals of the world, I just don\u2019t know if they\u2019ll have enough opportunity,\u201d Kershaw said recently. \u201cIf they throw 220 innings, if you can do that, you\u2019ve got to do that for 10 years. It\u2019s just the longevity part of it. I\u2019m hopeful there is. I\u2019m hopeful there\u2019s a return to starting pitching in baseball. I think it\u2019s good for the entertainment factor. It\u2019s good for the game in general.\u201d<\/p>\n
Major League Baseball\u2019s strikeout rate was 22.6 percent a season ago, higher than the career rates of 11 of the 19 current members of the 3,000-strikeout club. That illuminates the challenge ahead: volume.<\/p>\n
\u201cNobody, probably, will ever get to it,\u201d said Zack Wheeler (1,751 career strikeouts). \u201cI don\u2019t know. It might be somebody. But they\u2019re going to have to throw a lot and not get hurt.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cIt kind of shows you exactly what\u2019s missing in the game,\u201d Blue Jays right-hander Kevin Gausman, who has 1,855 career strikeouts, said. \u201cThat\u2019s true horses, true aces. They\u2019re really hard to find and don\u2019t come around very often.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cI don\u2019t want to say never,\u201d said Dodgers pitching coach Mark Prior (757 career strikeouts). \u201cI feel like every time someone comes up with 3,000, there\u2019s always like, \u2018It\u2019s not going to happen again,\u2019 and somebody eventually gets there. But it\u2019s just hard. It\u2019s the longevity and health and endurance piece, and then obviously you\u2019ve got to be somebody who strikes guys out and be able to maintain that.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s a huge number,\u201d Cole said, reiterating its importance to a bashful Kershaw last month when Cole\u2019s Yankees came to Dodger Stadium to visit.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Gerrit Cole\u2019s 2,521 strikeouts put him within reach of the 3,000 K club, but with plenty of unknown. (Brandon Sloter \/ Getty Images)It\u2019s more than just being the best at any given time<\/p>\n
Kershaw has combined an elite peak \u2014 from 2011 to 2017, he won an MVP award, won three Cy Youngs, finished in the top five every year and recorded 1,623 strikeouts \u2014 with enough volume to stack his numbers upon one another. Despite a run of back injuries and other physical maladies, Kershaw didn\u2019t undergo an arm surgery until after the 2023 season, when he repaired the capsule and glenohumeral ligaments in his left shoulder at 35 years old. By then, he\u2019d already logged 2,712 2\/3 innings in the majors.<\/p>\n
Consistency and dominance.<\/p>\n
\u201cHe\u2019s different,\u201d said Buster Posey, who faced Kershaw more times (120) than any other hitter and contributed 19 strikeouts to his tally. \u201cI would watch him warm up before the game, trying to see a little bit of a crack in his routine, a little bit of something you could see in his face that he wasn\u2019t the same as he was in the start before, and you never got that.\u201d<\/p>\n
It takes pure volume \u2014 and health<\/p>\n
Kershaw has logged 200 innings five times in his career. Just four major-league pitchers reached the 200-inning threshold a year ago.<\/p>\n
\u201cI didn\u2019t really think about it when I was doing it. It was just kind of what you did, what you\u2019re supposed to do,\u201d Kershaw said. \u201cNow, a guy reaches (200) \u2014 there\u2019s probably five or six guys a year that do it. It\u2019s definitely a challenge. It\u2019s almost more impressive now to do it. The guys that are doing it now, you\u2019ve got to kind of defy the odds a little bit.\u201d<\/p>\n
Given modern workloads, even the best pitchers at their most efficient might not get sufficient opportunity to pitch enough for 3,000. Even Kershaw has admitted as such, joking recently that \u201cI think my days of throwing 115 pitches is probably over.\u201d More restrictive pitch counts could provide an artificial cap of sorts.<\/p>\n
\u201cI think the longevity and the durability component, I think it\u2019s valued, but I don\u2019t know if it\u2019s valued in the same way as when you\u2019re constructing rosters,\u201d Prior said.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe way guys are, breaking down, and kind of the longevity piece to throw in 200-plus innings a year, to be able to strike guys out, that\u2019s \u2026 I don\u2019t know the answer,\u201d Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said.<\/p>\n
Now, even 200 innings is a novel achievement. Which only adds to the difficulty of reaching 3,000 strikeouts.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s epic,\u201d said Giants manager Bob Melvin, who was behind the plate when Steve Carlton reached 4,000 career strikeouts. \u201cWill you ever see it again? Guys are throwing 150 innings now, how are you going to do that?\u201d<\/p>\n
Beyond the peak years, there\u2019s a matter of simply accumulating enough outings to give yourself a chance. Kershaw needed seven seasons of at least 200 strikeouts \u2014 and one with 301 \u2014 to even give himself a chance.<\/p>\n
Just consider Zack Greinke, who Kershaw passed this season and logged 3,389 1\/3 innings from 2004 to 2023 and is \u2026 21 strikeouts shy of 3,000.<\/p>\n
Consider Sale, who missed significant time due to injury before landing in Atlanta and winning the Cy Young in 2024. Sale recently went on the injured list with a fractured rib cage, at least delaying his pursuit of 3,000.<\/p>\n
Or you can ask Cole, who struck out 326 batters in 2019 and appeared to be the torch holder for volume and consistency \u2014 and underwent Tommy John surgery this spring.<\/p>\n
Even ask Kershaw, who saw his 2021 season cut short with a forearm issue, has dealt with a litany of back issues and whose quest for 3,000 this season was delayed because he underwent offseason surgeries to address painful bone spurs in his toe, a ruptured plate in his left foot and a torn meniscus in his left knee.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhen guys come up and you think about having a big year and you strike out 180, 200 guys, you\u2019re like, \u2018oh my god, that\u2019s a lot of strikeouts,\u2019\u201d Prior said. \u201cYou\u2019ve got to do that for how many years? Like 15 years? When you look at it like that, that\u2019s a very daunting task even from somebody who\u2019s been playing around for 15 years.\u201d<\/p>\n
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<\/p>\n
Blake Snell is the all-time leader in strikeouts per nine innings, but doesn\u2019t expect to hold that title for long. (Gary A. Vasquez \/ Imagn Images)Is anyone even threatening?<\/p>\n
Sale and Cole are within striking distance, but are in their 30s with plenty of unknown ahead. After that, Prior said, \u201cIt gets pretty dicey.\u201d<\/p>\n
Skubal, the Detroit Tigers ace, has seemingly assumed the title of most dominant pitcher in the sport, but already has a Tommy John surgery and a separate flexor tendon surgery on his chart to go with his 786 strikeouts at 28 years old. Skenes is a phenom, striking out 280 batters through his first 239 innings. But there\u2019s still a long road ahead for the 23-year-old.<\/p>\n
Blake Snell, the all-time leader in strikeouts per nine innings, already shares a clubhouse with Kershaw. The two-time Cy Young winner has Sale edged out by mere decimals (11.1679 to 11.1112), heading a list where the top five all-time leaders (Snell, Sale, Robbie Ray, Jacob deGrom, Scherzer) are all active players. It\u2019s a mantle Snell doesn\u2019t expect to hold for long.<\/p>\n
\u201cI got a long ways to go to keep that,\u201d Snell said. \u201cAnd somebody\u2019s going to beat it anyway.\u201d<\/p>\n
Snell (1,372 career strikeouts) would need to churn through volume just to get to 2,000, having reached 180 innings pitched twice in his career. Still, Snell said, he sees a vision for things to revert to 3,000 being within reach for more budding aces.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s just the evolution of the game,\u201d Snell said. \u201cLook at the College World Series. You\u2019ve got guys throwing 130 pitches. Crazy. \u2026 It\u2019s all ebb and flow. I think it\u2019ll happen, but I don\u2019t know when. Just as the game changes. Right now, strikeouts are high because (of) the swings. So it could happen.\u201d<\/p>\n
Kershaw will make the list of pitchers with 3,000 strikeouts, 20 names long. It remains to be seen how long it will take for someone else to join him.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe took it for granted, maybe, early, and then were like, \u2018Oh, no. He\u2019s kind of getting banged up.\u2019 So now it\u2019s like he\u2019s finally getting it,\u201d Cole said. \u201cIt\u2019s a great accomplishment for a magical career.\u201d<\/p>\n
The Athletic\u2019s Andrew Baggarly, Mitch Bannon, Brendan Kuty and Matt Gelb contributed reporting.<\/strong><\/p>\n (Top photo of Clayton Kershaw: Matthew Stockman \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"LOS ANGELES \u2014 As Clayton Kershaw approaches history, one of his few peers laid out the staggering math…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":33243,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[41],"tags":[2502,1266,62,67,132,68],"class_list":{"0":"post-33242","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-mlb","8":"tag-los-angeles-dodgers","9":"tag-mlb","10":"tag-sports","11":"tag-united-states","12":"tag-unitedstates","13":"tag-us"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/114785035526612704","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33242","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33242"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33242\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/33243"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33242"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33242"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33242"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}