<\/p>\n
The Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve building in Washington, DC.<\/p>\n
(Bloomberg) — Policymakers in Washington and Ottawa will take the spotlight in the coming week, with interest-rate cuts in those two capitals likely while the rest of the Group of Seven stays on hold.<\/p>\n
Most Read from Bloomberg<\/p>\n
North America will probably be the main setting for monetary action as a global quartet of major central-bank decisions plays out over little more than 24 hours, starting Wednesday with widely anticipated quarter-point reductions from the US Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada.<\/p>\n
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The Bank of Japan, which is inching toward a potential rate hike, is predicted to hold off on such a move the following day, while European Central Bank officials have firmly signaled that their own meeting won\u2019t lead to any further easing for now. The following week, the Bank of England is likely to keep its rate steady as officials await the government\u2019s budget.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
The impetus for action in North America reflects how worries about economic growth and the labor market on both sides side of the US-Canadian border are acute enough to justify immediate moves \u2014 even though policymakers remain focused on the danger of possible inflation pressure.<\/p>\n
Across the Group of Seven industrialized nations as a whole, however, officials remain tentative, watching the impact of US President Donald Trump\u2019s tariffs on global growth while gauging the domestic strength of consumer prices.<\/p>\n
Aside from Japan\u2019s slow push to tighten monetary policy, the current bias remains toward possible rate cuts, though without urgency. The outlook may become clearer by the final round of rate meetings for the year among G-7 members, in December.<\/p>\n
What Bloomberg Economics Says:<\/p>\n
\u201cFed Chair Jerome Powell will likely characterize the cut as insurance against downside risks to employment. While the government shutdown has delayed official data, alternative data suggest continued downside risks to employment. Policymakers have little reason to adjust their outlook from September, keeping another cut on the table for December.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u2014Anna Wong, Stuart Paul, Eliza Winger, Estelle Ou, Chris G. Collins and Troy Durie, economists. For full analysis, click here<\/p>\n
Elsewhere, inflation numbers from Australia to the euro zone, Chinese purchasing manager indexes and rate decisions in Chile and Colombia will be among the week\u2019s highlights.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, Trump\u2019s latest moves on trade will also be in focus. The US president is slated to meet a host of Asian leaders during his three-nation tour of the region, with a Thursday sit-down with Chinese President Xi Jinping watched most closely.<\/p>\n
His visit coincides with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit in Malaysia and that of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation in South Korea. He\u2019ll also have a stopover in Tokyo.<\/p>\n
Click here for what happened in the past week, and below is our wrap of what\u2019s coming up in the global economy.<\/p>\n
US and Canada<\/p>\n
Friday\u2019s mostly favorable September inflation data reinforced widespread expectations that the Fed will cut rates by another quarter point. Most officials are now primarily concerned by signs of weakness in the labor market, many also remain deeply uncomfortable with the current level of inflation.<\/p>\n
In addition to lowering rates, policymakers may also halt the runoff of Treasury securities from the central bank\u2019s balance sheet. Money markets have flashed warnings that a continued runoff might soon imperil overnight liquidity.<\/p>\n
Economic data releases in the coming week will be sparse given the ongoing government shutdown. On Tuesday, the Conference Board is expected to report that consumer confidence retreated for a third straight month amid anxiety about jobs. National Association of Realtors data due Wednesday is projected to show a gauge of contract signings for previously owned homes increased as mortgage rates eased.<\/p>\n
The Bank of Canada is seen cutting its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% on Wednesday, despite recent inflation and jobs reports surprising to the upside.<\/p>\n
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Policymakers are likely to conclude that headline inflation of 2.4% and core measures averaging 3.15% are contained enough to justify delivering aid to the tariff-bruised economy.<\/p>\n
On Friday, Statistics Canada will report gross domestic product by industry for August and a flash estimate for September. The data is likely to point to tepid third-quarter growth after expenditure-based figures showed a contraction between April and June.<\/p>\n
Asia<\/p>\n
The final week of October brings a wave of inflation, trade and confidence readings that will indicate how solid the region\u2019s recovery remains as central banks pivot toward easier policy settings.<\/p>\n
The spotlight falls first on Australia, where the third-quarter inflation print on Wednesday will shape expectations for the Reserve Bank\u2019s Nov. 4 rate decision. Price pressures have eased overall, but sticky services costs and a recent firming in goods may keep policymakers cautious.<\/p>\n
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Attention will then turn to the Bank of Japan, where Thursday\u2019s meeting caps months of speculation about the timing of further normalization. A majority of economists in a Bloomberg survey predict the BOJ will leave its benchmark rate unchanged on Thursday at the end of its two-day policy meeting after Sanae Takaichi, known as an advocate of monetary easing, became Japan\u2019s prime minister.<\/p>\n
There\u2019ll be a focus on the vote split within the nine-member policy board, though. The BOJ surprised investors at its September meeting with two dissenters calling for a hike.<\/p>\n
Japan\u2019s central bank will also release its quarterly economic outlook, together with a policy statement. Some economists say any notable change could hint at the possibility of a near-term rate shift.<\/p>\n
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The Japanese jobless rate and industrial output along with Tokyo CPI figures due on Friday will further sharpen the economic picture.<\/p>\n
China\u2019s official PMIs arrive the same day, and are likely to show factory sentiment improving only marginally despite fiscal and credit support. Earlier in the week, China publishes industrial profits while Thailand will get customs data. Pakistan\u2019s central bank is expected to leave rates at 11% on Monday.<\/p>\n
Across Southeast Asia, trade will anchor the flow of news. Thailand and the Philippines report export and import figures that will test whether global demand for electronics and consumer goods remains strong.<\/p>\n
South Korea publishes retail sales and department store sales for September as well as consumer confidence and industrial production that will capture the tug-of-war between improving exports and hesitant domestic consumption.<\/p>\n
Europe, Middle East, Africa<\/p>\n
The ECB\u2019s decision on Thursday will be taken amid the Renaissance splendor of Florence, as Italy hosts one of the central bank\u2019s annual policy meetings away from headquarters in Frankfurt.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s likely to be uneventful as officials reaffirm their deposit rate at 2%. New forecasts aren\u2019t scheduled until December. President Christine Lagarde\u2019s comments will be scrutinized for any hints at the possibility of a further cut at that point.<\/p>\n
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Hours before the outcome, growth data from across the region will highlight the damage wrought so far from Trump\u2019s tariffs. The euro zone probably eked out growth of just 0.1% during the third quarter, according to the median forecast of economists.<\/p>\n
Officials will need to wait until Friday for the latest reading of inflation in the region. Weakening in both the headline measure and the underlying core gauge toward the 2% target is predicted by forecasters, which would offer some comfort to policymakers.<\/p>\n
Among the national reports scheduled, Germany may be the most prominent. Its Ifo business gauge on Monday is seen showing only mild improvement at the start of the fourth quarter, while data on Thursday will probably reveal no growth in the prior three months.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, chronic political instability in Paris may have had only a limited impact on France\u2019s economy so far. Expansion there, to be revealed in its report on Thursday, is forecast to have slowed slightly in the third quarter, to 0.2%.<\/p>\n
Investors will watch closely as Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu attempts to negotiate a budget with a fractured National Assembly. He\u2019s already been forced to ditch President Emmanuel Macron\u2019s signature pension reform in order to cling to power, and may yet have to offer the Socialists more concessions while attempting to keep France on the long road to fiscal repair.<\/p>\n
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The outcome of elections in the Netherlands on Wednesday may also draw market attention in the region. The snap poll was triggered by the collapse of Premier Dick Schoof\u2019s coalition government.<\/p>\n
Elsewhere in the European Union, Bulgaria\u2019s government may publish its budget bill for next year, seeking to keep its deficit within the bloc\u2019s 3%-of-output goal despite challenging circumstances.<\/p>\n
The Swiss National Bank, confronting the franc\u2019s approach to near decade-highs against the euro, will release nine-month earnings on Friday that may reveal a potential swing to profit.<\/p>\n
The UK has a quieter time ahead, with BOE officials on the sidelines in advance of their meeting the following week. Mortgage approvals are among the few reports due. Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivers her November budget a month, so noise and speculation about its contents may pick up. <\/p>\n
Further afield, a recession in Botswana will likely see policymakers leave their key rate unchanged at 1.9% on Thursday to support the economy.<\/p>\n
Latin America<\/p>\n
Brazil\u2019s market readout and Mexico\u2019s September trade data get the week rolling, right into Tuesday\u2019s rate decision in Chile.<\/p>\n
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Chile\u2019s economy is downshifting but inflation is running above the top of the central bank\u2019s target range and is sticky, likely kicking any fourth-quarter reduction in borrowing costs down the road to the December policy meeting.<\/p>\n
From there, officials may have as many as two quarter-point cuts left for 2026, especially should inflation grind lower to 3% in the third quarter, as the bank has forecast.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Mexico on Thursday kicks off region\u2019s third-quarter output reports. The flash reading may show negative quarterly and annual readings as declines in manufacturing outweigh resilient household consumption.<\/p>\n
Most analysts are on board with the central bank\u2019s view that the economy will pick up into year end \u2014 Banxico has revised its 2025 GDP estimate to 0.6% from 0.1% previously.<\/p>\n
Brazil, Mexico, Colombia and Chile all post unemployment readings for September, following the month\u2019s 5.7% surprise from Peru\u2019s megacity capital of Lima.<\/p>\n
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Monetary policy closes out the week, with the split board at Colombia\u2019s BanRep confronted by some uncooperative inflation readings.<\/p>\n
The country\u2019s president, Gustavo Petro, is pushing for lower rates to bolster growth, while one central banker at mid-month went so far as to say that \u2014 given unanchored expectations \u2014 a rate hike \u201cis on the table.\u201d Analysts are tuning out the jawboning and look for a fourth straight hold at 9.25%.<\/p>\n
–With assistance from Swati Pandey, Robert Jameson, Monique Vanek, Mark Evans, Laura Dhillon Kane, Christopher Condon, Vince Golle, Piotr Skolimowski, Alexander Weber and William Horobin.<\/p>\n
Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek<\/p>\n
\u00a92025 Bloomberg L.P.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve building in Washington, DC. (Bloomberg) — Policymakers in Washington and Ottawa will…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":332683,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[2440,6238,3638,64,22703,53017,79,24524,6243,26049,2177,587,129345,67,132,68,6240],"class_list":{"0":"post-332682","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-bank-of-canada","9":"tag-bank-of-japan","10":"tag-bloomberg","11":"tag-business","12":"tag-central-bank","13":"tag-consumer-confidence","14":"tag-economy","15":"tag-european-central-bank","16":"tag-global-economy","17":"tag-headline-inflation","18":"tag-monetary-policy","19":"tag-north-america","20":"tag-policymakers","21":"tag-united-states","22":"tag-unitedstates","23":"tag-us","24":"tag-us-federal-reserve"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/115437707251005555","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/332682","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=332682"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/332682\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/332683"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=332682"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=332682"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=332682"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}