No longer making that cut: LSU.<\/p>\n
Nine weeks into the college football season, what we have learned about the CFP is that almost half the teams that began the season<\/a> ranked in the top 15 won\u2019t be in it, but Cincinnati and Virginia just might.<\/p>\n And as tenuous as things feel for Texas right now, the Longhorns are still in far better shape than three other hyped preseason contenders.<\/p>\n Valley of Death<\/p>\n Throw LSU on the pile with Penn State and Clemson as the most disappointing teams in the country. The Nittany Lions (3-4, 0-4 Big Ten) and Clemson\u2019s Tigers (3-4, 2-3 ACC) started the season in the top five and might not get bowl eligible.<\/p>\n The record is better for Brian Kelly\u2019s Tigers (5-3, 2-3 SEC), but it\u2019s getting just as bleak in Baton Rouge. LSU started the season ranked ninth in the AP Top 25 with the fourth-year coach bragging about the program\u2019s offseason NIL spending spree.<\/p>\n On Saturday night in Death Valley, it was LSU\u2019s Playoff hopes that perished at the hands of Texas A&M in a 49-25 loss<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cOur fans are disappointed, like any fan base would be. It stops with the head coach, so that responsibility falls with me,\u201d Kelly told reporters after the game.<\/p>\n LSU is still looking for its first CFP appearance under Kelly. Meanwhile, Kelly\u2019s old defensive coordinator, Mike Elko, might have the SEC\u2019s most likely Playoff team in his second season at Texas A&M.<\/p>\n The No. 3 Aggies (8-0, 5-0) head into an off week with three SEC games remaining, two against ranked teams, but both of those opponents finished Saturday\u2019s games without their starting quarterbacks.<\/p>\n \n Marcel Reed and Texas A&M are one of four SEC teams with a greater than 80 percent chance to make the Playoff. Tyler Kaufman \/ Getty Images<\/p>\n No. 15 Missouri (6-2, 2-2), which hosts A&M in two weeks, lost a 17-10 heartbreaker at No. 10 Vanderbilt<\/a> that came with an even greater cost. Beau Pribula injured his left ankle in the third quarter and coach Eli Drinkwitz said he expected the quarterback to be out long-term.<\/p>\n No. 22 Texas (6-2, 3-1), which is at A&M on the Friday after Thanksgiving, made a miraculous comeback at Mississippi State to avoid also saying goodbye to its CFP hopes before Halloween, but Arch Manning left in overtime<\/a> after taking a hard hit.<\/p>\n The road seems to have opened up for Aggies quarterback Marcel Reed and company, as they\u2019re up to 97 percent to make the CFP in Mock\u2019s model (and 30 percent to win the SEC). Same goes for No. 8 Ole Miss.<\/p>\n In one of two SEC games matching one-loss Playoff hopefuls, the Rebels (7-1, 4-1) beat No. 13 Oklahoma (6-2, 2-2)<\/a> 34-26. The SEC has never been more competitive top to bottom, but Lane Kiffin\u2019s team finishes with South Carolina, Florida and Mississippi State in conference.<\/p>\n If 10-2 is indeed the magic number for Playoff inclusion out of the SEC, the Rebels appear to be in great shape. Ole Miss is sitting at an 85 percent chance to make the CFP, according to Mock\u2019s projections.<\/p>\n As for the preseason No. 1 Longhorns, nothing about consecutive road overtime victories against Kentucky and Mississippi State suggests they are going to go on a Playoff run. Especially with Vanderbilt and No. 5 Georgia up next.<\/p>\n The Commodores (7-1, 3-1) roll into Austin next week looking to deal a knockout blow to Texas. Mock\u2019s projections are still not totally bought in on Vandy\u2019s chances to reach the CFP (though they are up to the 14th-best chance nationally at 26 percent), but the Commodores do not want to hear it.<\/p>\n \u201cChampionship teams go through games like this,\u201d quarterback Diego Pavia said after Vandy\u2019s worst offensive game of the season.<\/p>\n Big 12 foursome<\/p>\n The Big 12 didn\u2019t do its own preseason media poll this season because the conference feared the expectations were putting teams picked to finish down the table at a disadvantage.<\/p>\n Of course, the prediction machines cannot be stopped.<\/p>\n Informal preseason rankings had Cincinnati and Houston pegged to finish in the bottom four coming off losing seasons. BYU, which lost its starting quarterback in July, was outside the top five.<\/p>\n As usual, none of that matters in the Big 12.<\/p>\n A clear foursome has emerged at the top of the conference heading into the final month. No. 11 BYU (8-0) and No. 21 Cincinnati (7-1) sit in first place at 5-0, and No. 14 Texas Tech (7-1) and Houston (7-1) are right behind them at 4-1.<\/p>\n The Red Raiders (49 percent) are still the only Big 12 team with odds to reach the CFP above 25 percent, but BYU (23 percent) is the team that most controls how the conference race will play out.<\/p>\n The Cougars go to Texas Tech on Nov. 8 and are at Cincinnati on Nov. 22. Last year, an 8-0 start by BYU was followed by a 2-2 finish that kept it out of the Big 12 title game and the CFP.<\/p>\n Houston, which went 4-8 last year, upset defending Big 12 champion Arizona State 24-16 on Saturday. The Cougars are starting to feel like last year\u2019s Sun Devils, who really didn\u2019t emerge as a serious contender until a late surge, though they\u2019re still sitting at just 8 percent to make the bracket.<\/p>\n Second-year coach Willie Fritz and Houston have an accommodating final month with West Virginia, UCF, TCU and Baylor. Only the Horned Frogs are above .500 in the league.<\/p>\n \n Georgia Tech, 8-0 for the first time since 1966, closes its ACC schedule with NC State, Boston College and Pitt. Randy J. Williams \/ Getty Images<\/p>\n ACCtion!<\/p>\n There are currently seven ACC teams with zero or one conference loss.<\/p>\n No. 7 Georgia Tech (8-0, 5-0) and No. 16 Virginia (7-1, 4-0), at the top of the standings, do not play each other. Neither has to play No. 9 Miami (6-1, 2-1), either.<\/p>\n The Hurricanes are still the most likely ACC team to make the CFP at 84 percent, according to Mock\u2019s projections, but they are going to need a fair amount of help to reach the conference title game.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/GettyImages-2243332387.jpg\")
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