HONG KONG (AP) \u2014 China\u2019s ambition to challenge Boeing and Airbus with its own homegrown passenger jet is running into turbulence, with deliveries of finished aircraft likely to fall far short of its target announced for this year.<\/p>\n
The C919 jet<\/a> — a single-aisle passenger plane aiming to rival Boeing\u2019s 737 and Airbus\u2019 A320 \u2013 is made by state-owned aircraft manufacturer COMAC. Beijing is showcasing it as evidence of China\u2019s technological advancement and progress in self-reliance, though it uses many Western sourced components.<\/p>\n Trade friction<\/a> with Washington threatens to prevent COMAC from securing core parts for the program that has been supported by huge Chinese government subsidies.<\/p>\n \u201cCOMAC faces significant risk from the volatile policy environment, with its supply chains vulnerable to export restrictions and tit-for-tat measures between the U.S. and China,\u201d said Max J. Zenglein, Asia-Pacific senior economist at The Conference Board think tank.<\/p>\n The C919 has 48 major suppliers from the U.S. — including GE, Honeywell and Collins — 26 from Europe and 14 from China, according to analysts at the Bank of America. Trump threatened to impose new export controls<\/a> on \u201ccritical\u201d software to China after Beijing imposed stricter export controls on rare earths. <\/p>\n \u201cExisting choke points are being exploited in the deal making process between governments,\u201d Zenglein said. \u201cThis is likely to continue as critical dependencies have become political bargaining chips.\u201d<\/p>\n Beijing has high hopes for the C919, which made its maiden commercial flight<\/a> in 2023. The mid-sized jet is meant to help fill vast domestic demand for new aircraft over the next few decades. China hopes to expand sales beyond its borders and fly globally, including in Southeast Asia, Africa and Europe.<\/p>\n COMAC delivered 13 C919s to Chinese carriers last year and only seven as of October this year, despite plans to ramp up production and deliver 30 jets in 2025, according to the aviation consultancy Cirium.<\/p>\n China\u2019s biggest state-owned airlines — Air China, China Eastern and China Southern — are the only commercial airlines currently flying a total of around 20 C919s.<\/p>\n Trade tensions between the U.S. and China have \u201cdirectly affected\u201d delivery schedules for the C919, said Dan Taylor, head of consulting at aviation consultancy IBA. For one, output plans were disrupted when the U.S. suspended export licenses for the jet\u2019s LEAP-1C engines around May, resuming them in July, he said.<\/p>\n U.S.-controlled technology that needs export licensing for the LEAP-1C engines — jointly built by the U.S.\u2019s GE Aerospace and France\u2019s Safran -\u2014 means the C919\u2019s engines require U.S. export clearance, Taylor said, making it \u201cinherently sensitive to political shifts.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cEngine and avionics dependence on Western suppliers continues to expose the program to policy decisions beyond COMAC\u2019s control,\u201d Taylor explained.<\/p>\n Geopolitical tensions alone are not the only cause for slower than expected production of the C919s. The program has been \u201cmarked by caution and prioritizing quality and safety, so there also may be some operational reasons for the slower production ramp up,\u201d said Zenglein from The Conference Board.<\/p>\n While \u201cit has always been the aim to reduce the reliance on foreign components as quickly as possible\u201d for the C919, Zenglein said, many analysts say it is a challenging process. China\u2019s own engine alternative — the CJ-1000A under development by state-owned Aero Engine Corporation of China (AECC) — is still under testing, according to IBA.<\/p>\n Several airlines outside of China, including AirAsia, have expressed interest in flying the C919, but a lack of international certification<\/a> has so far prevented the C919 from flying beyond China. Certifications from the U.S. and the European Union\u2019s aviation regulators could take years.<\/p>\n For the C919 to succeed, it \u201cneeds to have each one of three things: good economics, a prompt global product support network, and certification from safety agencies\u201d, said Richard Aboulafia, managing director of AeroDynamic Advisory. \u201cAny one of these three alone doesn\u2019t mean much,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n China will need 9,570 new passenger aircraft between 2025 and 2044, according to Airbus\u2019 latest market forecast<\/a>, more than 80% of them single-aisle jets like the C919.<\/p>\n COMAC\u2019s faces a growing challenge from Airbus, which is expanding its manufacturing capacity in China. A second assembly line is due to begin operating in 2026, allowing Airbus to increase its production of A320 single-aisle jets in China \u2013 an aircraft model similar to the C919.<\/p>\n