Taking walks isn\u2019t a problem for the Giants this season. Hitting the ball is the problem.<\/p>\n
Your first reaction is to think that it\u2019s bad for a team to be last in the league in this stat. You might think that the whole point of a hitter is to hit the ball hard, which would mean it\u2019s bad to be so low on a ranking of \u201chard hits.\u201d<\/p>\n
You might think that, alright. So you\u2019ll be surprised to know that it\u2019s actually very bad.<\/p>\n
The Giants are making quieter contact than any team in the league. Rafael Devers will help with the overall numbers by the end of the season, as will a healthy Matt Chapman, but it\u2019s just not a lineup that lights up the radar gun.<\/p>\n
Go back to the Giants having a great walk rate. That should help them make better contact, in theory. By not swinging at pitches that are difficult to hit hard, Giants hitters are giving themselves a better chance to do more damage on the easier pitches to hit. In theory. The Giants aren\u2019t making that kind of loud contact, though, which is limiting the usefulness of the walks. We can turn it into a baseball truism: Most good lineups draw walks; not all lineups that draw walks are good.<\/p>\n
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The addition of Devers should, in theory, improve the Giants\u2019 standing in several of these categories. (Bob Kupbens \/ Imagn Images)<\/p>\n
There are a lot of ways to hit a baseball, and some hitters swing their bats harder than others. It doesn\u2019t correlate perfectly with success, and it\u2019s possible to be a great hitter with merely average bat speed.<\/p>\n
Still, if you\u2019re looking for a way to explain why the team\u2019s exit velocity is so low, this will help. The Giants aren\u2019t hitting the ball hard because they aren\u2019t swinging their bats hard. Physics, you rascal, you\u2019ve screwed everything up again.<\/p>\n
Before the Statcast revolution, this would all\u00a0feel correct, but there wasn\u2019t any way to verify it. It was maddening. This is so much better. It\u2019s especially helpful when it comes to evaluating the Giants, too, because you don\u2019t have to adjust for the ballpark. The marine layer will suffocate a fly ball before it leaves the yard, but it won\u2019t do much an inch away from where the batter makes contact.<\/p>\n
The Giants hit fewer line drives than everyone else. If you remember only one sentence from this article, make it that last one.<\/p>\n
Another thing we used to do in the olden days was point at BABIP and say, \u201cThere\u2019s your problem,\u201d like a gas station mechanic. It was so easy to use it to explain everything you didn\u2019t have an answer for. If this were 2005, I might have written a column about how the Giants\u2019 offensive struggles aren\u2019t due to being bad. They\u2019re just unlucky. Their BABIP is all out of whack.<\/p>\n
The Statcast revolution got rid of that, too. The Giants have the lowest BABIP because they\u2019re not hitting the ball hard. It\u2019s not luck, or lack thereof. When you look at expected batting average<\/a>, they\u2019re right where they should be. Their grounders are just a little less likely to find a hole. Their fly balls are just a little less likely to find a gap. All the miles per hour that are missing from the team\u2019s exit velocity are translating directly into baseballs nestled safely in opponents\u2019 gloves.<\/p>\n I\u2019m not smart enough to know if this is inherently bad. But it doesn\u2019t feel great. On the surface, it seems like pitchers are more willing to challenge the Giants with fastballs compared to other lineups.<\/p>\n Oracle Park could explain a lot of this, though. The homer-unfriendly ballpark is a heckuva safety net for any pitcher who needs to get back in the zone with a fastball, so this stat is probably less about the Giants\u2019 lineup and more about the park itself.<\/p>\n It could be both, too. Maybe there\u2019s a stat that can tell us the Giants are the worst-hitting team in the majors against fastballs.<\/p>\n Son of a \u2026<\/p>\n Look at the teams that are keeping company with the Giants in this category: the White Sox, Guardians, Pirates, Rockies, et al. It\u2019s a who\u2019s who of ineffective lineups. Maybe collective performance against fastballs is a good proxy for a team\u2019s overall offensive health. If a team is struggling against fastballs, they\u2019re probably just struggling.<\/p>\n Again, Devers should help considerably. So will Chapman, when he\u2019s back in the lineup. Also, all these stats reflect contributions from players who aren\u2019t on the roster anymore, so keep that in mind.<\/p>\n I didn\u2019t set out to write an ultra-depressing article. Just kinda happened. So, uh, do we have any frivolous or fun stats to lighten the mood?<\/p>\n There we go. When the game is on the line, it\u2019s Christian Koss time. Just like everyone was expecting before the season.<\/p>\n This isn\u2019t a predictive stat, and I\u2019m not sure if it has any meaning other than \u201cthat happened,\u201d but it\u2019s a fun one. Leverage index<\/a> is a stat that considers the inning, the score, the number of outs, et cetera, and spits out a number. The higher the number, the tighter the situation. And according to this stat, nobody is having more plate appearances in big spots than Koss.<\/p>\n