In the \u201cmid-migration scenario,\u201d which You recommends for most planning purposes, the team projects that the Texas population will grow from 31.2 million in 2024 to 42.6 million in 2060<\/p>\n
You noted that the new projections are slightly lower than previous estimates, a change mostly attributed to a faster-than-anticipated decline in fertility. This means the state is reaching a critical inflection point where migration becomes the key to sustaining growth.<\/p>\n
\u201cMore and more, Texas growth will depend on the level of migration,\u201d You said. \u201cMigration will be the major driver of either growth or decline in the future.\u201d<\/p>\n
While the fertility rate in Texas is slightly higher than the national average, it has fallen short of the replacement rate.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe fertility rate has been on the decline since 2007 and has been below the replacement rate since 2011,\u201d You said. \u201cThat means that if there was no in-migration, the population would be steadily shrinking.\u201d<\/p>\n
The fertility rate for Texas was 1.78 in 2020, according to the National Center for Health Statistics. A rate of 2.1, or slightly more than two children per woman, is needed to keep a population size stable.<\/p>\n
You and her team expect the fertility rate to stabilize, \u201cbut there\u2019s no way to know for sure,\u201d she added.<\/p>\n
The two faces of Texas growth<\/p>\n
The projections highlight a growing divide in the places where Texans are choosing to live, a phenomenon You described as \u201ctwo stories unfolding in Texas\u201d \u2014 the Texas triangle and a rural exodus.<\/p>\n
Texas Triangle sprawl: Growth continues to be heavily concentrated in the Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Austin and San Antonio metropolitan regions. The core cities have reached a saturation point and growth is now \u201coverflowing\u201d into surrounding suburban and exurban counties. This trend has made these \u201cring counties\u201d the fastest-growing in the state.<\/p>\n
Rural exodus: In contrast, areas like West Texas are seeing a loss of population in many rural counties. The little growth that occurs is strictly focused on metropolitan centers.<\/p>\n
These regional shifts are coupled with dramatic aging of the state. The data show that the 65-and-over demographic is the fastest-growing age group in Texas.<\/p>\n
While the state is already classified as an \u201caging society,\u201d the projections show it is barreling toward an \u201cultra-aged society\u201d by 2060, when 22% of all Texans will be 65 or older.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/County-pop-change-600x463.png\")
<\/p>\n
Changing demographics<\/p>\n
The demographic landscape is also projected to continue diversifying. The non-Hispanic white population is the only race\/ethnic group projected to decline. Hispanics will continue to be the largest race\/ethnic group and will see the most significant numerical growth.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, non-Hispanic Asians, while having a smaller population base, are projected to be the fastest-growing group in terms of percentage rate.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Asian population is a smaller group, so a small number of newcomers can make a significant difference percentagewise, whereas the Hispanic population is expected to see the most growth, driven by both migration and higher birth rates,\u201d You said.<\/p>\n
Impact of an undercount<\/p>\n
Biennial population projections have a tangible effect on the lives of Texans, You said. The data is used for state-level planning for infrastructure, housing, water and transportation.<\/p>\n