In the 1976 classic \u201cNetwork,\u201d executive Arthur Jensen dims the lights in a conference room to lecture Howard Beale on how the world really works.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere are no nations. There are no peoples. \u2026 There is only one holistic system of systems, one vast and immune, interwoven, interacting, multivariate, multinational dominion of dollars,\u201d he roars. \u201cThe world is a business, Mr. Beale. It has been since man crawled out of the slime.\u201d<\/p>\n
Welcome to the Baseball Offseason!<\/p>\n
Baseball is a business, you hear at various junctures of the season. But late July and winter are the two times that dynamic becomes most explicit.<\/p>\n
Now\u2019s the time to talk about money.<\/p>\n
This is the fourth winter I\u2019m projecting MLB<\/a> free-agent contracts for The Athletic. I\u2019ve got a big Excel spreadsheet with a bunch of free-agent and extension contracts in it (dating mostly to 2014, but with some landmark contracts from earlier), as well as players\u2019 performance in the years leading up to those contracts, as defined by FanGraphs\u2019 wins above replacement. Whereas players get paid for home runs and saves in arbitration, I\u2019ve found fWAR to be a solid (though not all-knowing) predictor of earnings on the open market. When I use WAR in this story, it\u2019s referring to FanGraphs\u2019 version of it<\/a>.<\/p>\n I plug impending free agents into the spreadsheet, find players with similar production before they signed their deals, and work off those comps. Several points worth noting:<\/p>\n Kyle Tucker, 29<\/p>\n Spring projection: 10 years, $350 million<\/strong><\/p>\n Tucker stands to cash in thanks to two deals signed in the last 12 months: Juan Soto\u2019s $765 million contract with the Mets and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.\u2019s 14-year, $500 million extension with the Blue Jays. Let\u2019s look at how Tucker ranks with those two and some other big-name free agents of late:<\/p>\n Player<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Signed<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Age<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n fWAR1<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n fWAR3<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Years<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Total<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n 2025 AAV<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/tr>\n 2023<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 31<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 11.5<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 20.9<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 9<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 360.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 43.6<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 2024<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 29<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 8.9<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 26.4<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 10<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 437.8<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 46.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 2025<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 26<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 8.1<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 17.9<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 15<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 765.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 51.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 2026<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 29<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 4.5<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 13.6<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 2025<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 27<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 5.3<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 9.8<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 14<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 500.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 35.7<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n The Guerrero deal is especially helpful, as it removes a comparable bat from this winter\u2019s market and sets a very sturdy baseline for valuing Tucker. Given how his production compares to Guerrero\u2019s at the time of the extension, Tucker should be able to argue that a $35.7 million average annual value is his floor. But how close can Tucker get to the $40 million-plus AAVs of Soto, Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani?<\/p>\n In Guerrero\u2019s deal, you can see a kind of crude math: No, he\u2019s not Soto, but his production was about two-thirds of Soto\u2019s, and so the contract valued him at about two-thirds of Soto\u2019s deal. In Tucker\u2019s case, he\u2019s been about 75 percent as valuable as Soto in the three and five years leading up to free agency. Seventy-five percent of Soto\u2019s $51 million AAV would be just over $38 million per season. Spread that through Tucker\u2019s age-40 season \u2014 the length Soto and Guerrero each secured \u2014 and you get a 12-year, $460 million deal.<\/p>\n Projection: 12 years, $460 million<\/strong><\/p>\n Bo Bichette, 28<\/p>\n For Bichette, Willy Adames\u2019 seven-year, $182 million deal with the Giants last winter is particularly helpful.<\/p>\n Player<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Signed<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Age<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n fWAR1<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n fWAR3<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Years<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Total<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n 2025 AAV<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/tr>\n 2025<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 29<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 4.7<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 12.5<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 7<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 182.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 26.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 2022<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 28<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 3.6<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 11.8<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 10<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 325.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 37.7<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 2026<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 28<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 3.8<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 8.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n While Adames\u2019 overall production outstrips Bichette\u2019s, the latter has been a better offensive player, and offense gets paid more than defense. (Furthermore, Adames\u2019 once sturdy defensive value had plunged heading into free agency, to the point that he, like Bichette, now faces questions about his long-term future at short.) Bichette is also a year younger, which could mitigate some of his injury concerns. That\u2019s where the comp to Seager comes in; Seager was a fellow shortstop who performed when healthy but missed plenty of time, and he was paid off his peak performance. Bichette won\u2019t reach those heights, but he should be able to surpass Adames\u2019 deal.<\/p>\n Projection: 8 years, $212 million<\/strong><\/p>\n Framber Valdez, 32<\/p>\n Spring projection: 4 years, $116 million<\/strong><\/p>\n Valdez has pretty clearly been the most productive starting pitcher on this free-agent market \u2014 a metronome of consistency that is second in the majors in innings and fourth in ERA since the start of the 2022 season. However, a few things work against him in free agency: He\u2019s already entering his age-32 season, unusually late for a first-time free agent. His 94 mph fastball velocity is pedestrian in today\u2019s game. His postseason track record is mixed. And whatever this was<\/a> happened late this season.<\/p>\n It\u2019s possible that those concerns accrete to diminish Valdez\u2019s value. While his age is the likeliest thing to hold down his next deal in some capacity, he\u2019s put himself in excellent company. And he\u2019s the beneficiary of down seasons for his chief competition in this market, including Dylan Cease, Michael King and Zac Gallen.<\/p>\n Player<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Signed<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Age<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n fWAR1<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n fWAR3<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Years<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Total<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n 2025 AAV<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/tr>\n 2026<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 32<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 4.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 12.1<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 2016<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 30<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 3.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 12.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 5<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 110.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 30.1<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 2025<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 31<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 3.4<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 10.1<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 8<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 218.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 27.3<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 2025<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 32<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 3.1<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 10.8<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 5<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 150.3<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 30.1<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n Given the contracts signed by Zimmermann and Snell, a five-year, $150 million pact should be Valdez\u2019s floor. If a team wanted to stretch out the commitment, as the Yankees did with Fried, I could see up to seven years with the AAV just below $30 million.<\/p>\n Projection: 7 years, $196 million<\/strong><\/p>\n Tatsuya Imai, 28<\/p>\n Imai\u2019s performance by ERA in NPB aligns closely with pitchers such as Yusei Kikuchi, Kodai Senga and Hiroki Kuroda. Kikuchi might be the best comp, given he was the same age and had a similar strikeout rate as Imai before signing with Seattle in 2019.<\/p>\n Player<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Year<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Age<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n ERA+ (3)<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n K% (3)<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Years<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Total<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n 2025 AAV<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/tr>\n 2023<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 30<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 159<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 140<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 5<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 75.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 16.4<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 2026<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 28<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 143<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 137<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 2019<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 28<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 155<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 134<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 4<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 66.3<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 21.4<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 2008<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 33<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 145<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 100<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 3<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 35.2<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 18.1<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n If we use Kikuchi as the comp and add a few years to the deal, you can see an eight-year, $146 million contract, with a posting fee taking the total investment to $170 million. However, Imai\u2019s outstanding 2025 season and the relatively weak market for top-of-the-rotation starters \u2014 only Imai and Dustin May are hitting free agency ahead of their age-28 seasons, and no free-agent starters are entering their age-29 season \u2014 make me think it will be higher than that. (It doesn\u2019t hurt that the star of this past postseason was a similarly diminutive right-hander from Japan, even if Yoshinobu Yamamoto\u2019s results in NPB were beyond what Imai has done.)<\/p>\n Imai\u2019s 2025 season in NPB corresponds well to Daisuke Matsuzaka\u2019s last year in Japan.<\/p>\n Player<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Year<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Age<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n ERA+ (1)<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n K% (1)<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Years<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Total<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n 2025 AAV<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/tr>\n 2007<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 26<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 170<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 160<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 6<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 103.1<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 27.5<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 2026<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 28<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 171<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 142<\/p>\n<\/td>\n A team valuing Imai at the same level as Matsuzaka \u2014 again with some added length \u2014 would get the contract to eight years and $190 million, with a roughly $30 million posting fee on top.<\/p>\n Projection: 8 years, $190 million<\/strong><\/p>\n Cody Bellinger, 30<\/p>\n Last time he hit free agency, Bellinger was coming off his first good season in the past three. This time, he\u2019s established more consistent results while flashing the ability that won him an MVP back in 2019. Still entering just his age-30 season, this should be the winter he fully cashes in.<\/p>\n Player<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Signed<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Age<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n fWAR1<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n fWAR3<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Years<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Total<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n 2025 AAV<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/tr>\n 2014<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 31<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 6.4<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 11.2<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 7<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 130.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 25.8<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 2023<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 30<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 5.4<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 12.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 8<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 162.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 22.1<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 2018<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 30<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 4.4<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 9.5<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 5<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 106.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 27.8<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 2026<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 30<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 4.9<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 11.3<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 2016<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 28<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 3.4<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 10.6<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 6<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 132.8<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 30.3<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n Justin Upton\u2019s 2018 extension with the Angels is the baseline here. Yes, it\u2019s fair to question Bellinger\u2019s bat outside of the Bronx \u2014 he posted a .909 OPS at home versus .715 on the road \u2014 or whether he\u2019ll ever post a 1.000 OPS against lefties again. But he\u2019s also a far better defender than the other players in this chart, one who could plausibly play center field next year before sliding down to the corner outfield or first base as he ages. That\u2019s why it would not be unreasonable to see Bellinger land a seven- or eight-year deal.<\/p>\n Projection: 7 years, $182 million<\/strong><\/p>\n Dylan Cease, 30<\/p>\n Spring projection: 6 years, $196 million<\/strong><\/p>\n The back-of-the-baseball-card numbers for Cease were subpar in 2025: an ERA above 4.50 for the second time in three seasons and his fewest innings since 2021. Cease\u2019s peripherals painted a rosier picture: His FIP was right in line with where it\u2019s been since his first 162-game season in 2021, and his strikeout rate (33.3 percent) was a career best.<\/p>\n Player<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Signed<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Age<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n fWAR1<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n fWAR3<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Years<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Total<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n 2025 AAV<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/tr>\n 2015<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 31<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 5.6<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 11.6<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 6<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 155.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 35.9<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 2026<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 30<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 3.4<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 11.7<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 2010<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 31<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 3.3<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 9.6<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 5<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 82.5<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 24.8<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n The Lester comparison isn\u2019t crazy. Lester endured some prolonged rough stretches leading into his free agency, though he sequenced them better, entering the market off arguably his best season (and one year removed from being a World Series hero). Cease won\u2019t get to that number (at least not accounting for inflation), but he\u2019ll probably join a group of pitchers paid more for their stuff and peripherals than for their ERA \u2014 a cohort headlined by Zack Wheeler.<\/p>\n Cease offers an intriguing mix of potential (thanks to two top-five Cy Young finishes) and durability; no one has made more starts than his 174 since 2020. In a market without a bona fide ace, that should work in his favor.<\/p>\n Projection: 6 years, $174 million<\/strong><\/p>\n Alex Bregman, 32<\/p>\n Bregman turned down a reported six-year, $160 million deal with Detroit to sign a shorter-term deal in Boston, earning more than $32 million this past season and opting out to hit the market again ahead of his age-32 season. The bet on himself should pay off.<\/p>\n Player<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Signed<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Age<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n fWAR1<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n fWAR3<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Years<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Total<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n 2025 AAV<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/tr>\n 2025<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 32<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 5.4<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 12.3<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 6<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 150.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 25.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 2026<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 32<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 3.5<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 12.1<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 2022<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 30<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 3.1<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 10.1<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 7<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 182.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 30.2<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 2023<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 27<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 4.9<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 12.9<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 10<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 291.5<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 31.8<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n As it stands, Bregman should land at least Chapman\u2019s deal. That his WAR this past season was lower owes to a quad injury; he otherwise played to a five-win pace, and he\u2019s not so injury-prone as to worry too much about his durability. Devers\u2019 present-day AAV of almost $32 million is the ceiling here; Bregman didn\u2019t quite reach that number on his pillow deal with the Red Sox. (With deferrals, the AAV for that three-year deal was $31.6 million.) Let\u2019s split the difference between the AAVs of Chapman and Devers, landing at $28.5 million per season.<\/p>\n Projection: 6 years, $171 million<\/strong><\/p>\n Ranger Su\u00e1rez, 30<\/p>\n Every year I\u2019ve done this, there\u2019s one guy who stands out as a relatively unheralded player about to make a lot more than the casual fan expects. I think Su\u00e1rez is about to join the likes of Brandon Nimmo and Willy Adames when he signs easily into nine figures.<\/p>\n The left-hander has been behind Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Cristopher S\u00e1nchez in the Philadelphia rotation. He\u2019s made just one All-Star team and he\u2019s never received a Cy Young vote, in part because he\u2019s never qualified for the ERA title. But put his numbers up against other pitchers who sign for big money, and he\u2019s comfortably aligned.<\/p>\n Player<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Signed<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Age<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n fWAR1<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n fWAR3<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Years<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Total<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n 2025 AAV<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/tr>\n 2022<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 31<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 4.8<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 10.1<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 5<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 110.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 25.5<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 2020<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 30<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 4.7<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 9.1<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 5<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 118.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 29.7<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 2026<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 30<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 4.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 9.9<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 2025<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 31<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 3.4<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 10.1<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 8<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 218.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 27.3<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n The deals for Gausman and Wheeler are arguably the two best signed for a starting pitcher in the last decade. And while Su\u00e1rez generally misses some time during the season, no single injury has been catastrophic, and he\u2019s always been healthy for October, where he\u2019s pitched to a sparkling 1.48 ERA. Let\u2019s update that Gausman deal and add a year.<\/p>\n Projection: 6 years, $153 million<\/strong><\/p>\n Kyle Schwarber, 33<\/p>\n When Schwarber signed his last free-agent deal, a DH had never won the MVP nor earned more than $22 million per season. Shohei Ohtani helps things.<\/p>\n Obviously, Ohtani wasn\u2019t signed just to DH, but his MVP campaign in 2024 established a higher value on the position than existed before. And Schwarber was significantly more valuable himself in 2025 than ever before. And so later-career contracts for the likes of Victor Martinez, Nelson Cruz and Michael Brantley all feel low for Schwarber. (At the start of the season, I\u2019d informally pegged Schwarber in that range: something like three years and $60 million.)<\/p>\n Player<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Signed<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Age<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n fWAR1<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n fWAR3<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Years<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Total<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n 2025 AAV<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/tr>\n 2026<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 33<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 4.9<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 9.1<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 2015<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 36<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 4.5<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 5.3<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 4<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 64.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 22.2<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 2015<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 34<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 3.9<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 6.6<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 4<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 57.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 19.8<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 2018<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 30<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 3.8<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 11.3<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 5<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 110.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 28.8<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 2019<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 32<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 3.7<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 5.5<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 2<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 32.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 20.6<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n 2017<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 34<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 3.5<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 11.7<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 3<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 60.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n 26.8<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n One that feels more proper? The in-his-prime deal that J.D. Mart\u00ednez signed with the Red Sox in 2018 for that aforementioned $22 million per year. Like Schwarber, Mart\u00ednez was coming off the best stretch of his career \u2014 29 homers in 62 games with the Diamondbacks. Updating that contract for 2026 pushes the money close to $29 million per season. Schwarber could surpass $30 million on a shorter-term deal, but I think he can get to five years at the Mart\u00ednez money.<\/p>\n Projection: 5 years, $145 million<\/strong><\/p>\n Pete Alonso<\/p>\n Since I cover the Mets, I\u2019ve been doing Alonso contract projections for years.<\/p>\n Spring 2022<\/a>: 8 years, $160 million And of course, what did he sign for last winter? Two years and $54 million, with an opt-out allowing him to hit the market again this winter.<\/p>\n\n
\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <\/tr>\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <\/tr>\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <\/tr>\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <\/tr>\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <\/tr>\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <\/tr>\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <\/tr>\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <\/tr>\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <\/tr>\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <\/tr>\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n
Spring 2023<\/a>: 9 years, $207 million
Spring 2024<\/a>: 7 years, $190 million
Fall 2024<\/a>: 5 years, $140 million<\/p>\n