{"id":3621,"date":"2025-06-21T23:25:11","date_gmt":"2025-06-21T23:25:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/3621\/"},"modified":"2025-06-21T23:25:11","modified_gmt":"2025-06-21T23:25:11","slug":"social-securitys-2026-cost-of-living-adjustment-cola-estimate-is-getting-a-trump-bump-heres-how-much-extra-you-might-receive-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/3621\/","title":{"rendered":"Social Security&#8217;s 2026 Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) Estimate Is Getting a &#8220;Trump Bump&#8221; &#8212; Here&#8217;s How Much Extra You Might Receive"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<ul class=\"yf-1woyvo2\">\n<li class=\"yf-1woyvo2\">\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">As many as nine out of 10 retirees rely on their Social Security income to cover some portion of their expenses.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"yf-1woyvo2\">\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">Estimates for Social Security&#8217;s 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) are climbing, and President Trump&#8217;s tariff and trade policy looks to be the culprit.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"yf-1woyvo2\">\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">Though an above-average COLA for a fifth-consecutive year would be welcome on paper, retirees continue to get the short end of the stick when it comes to annual raises.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"yf-1woyvo2\">\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\"><a class=\"link \" href=\"https:\/\/api.fool.com\/infotron\/infotrack\/click?apikey=35527423-a535-4519-a07f-20014582e03e&amp;impression=060bd253-4880-428a-bd43-0a56988cb2a9&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fool.com%2Fmms%2Fmark%2Fe-sa-social-security%2F%3Faid%3D10953%26source%3Disaedikp0000054%26ftm_cam%3Dsa-bbn-retirement%26ftm_veh%3Dkeypoints_pitch_feed_yahoo%26ftm_pit%3D17671\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:The $23,760 Social Security bonus most retirees completely overlook \u203a;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\">The $23,760 Social Security bonus most retirees completely overlook \u203a<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>   High Yield Savings Offers   <\/p>\n<p>Powered by Money.com &#8211; Yahoo may earn commission from the links above. <\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">Last month, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fool.com\/retirement\/2025\/05\/25\/social-security-retired-worker-benefits-history\/?utm_source=yahoo-host-full&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=article&amp;referring_guid=32c58548-0243-4e72-a905-e9da091e3277\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:Social Security&#039;s retired-worker benefit made history;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">Social Security&#8217;s retired-worker benefit made history<\/a>, with the average payout topping $2,000 for the first time since the program&#8217;s inception. Although this represents a modest monthly benefit, it&#8217;s nevertheless proved vital to helping aging workers cover their expenses.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">In each of the prior 23 years, pollster Gallup surveyed retirees about their reliance on the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fool.com\/retirement\/social-security\/?utm_source=yahoo-host-full&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=article&amp;referring_guid=32c58548-0243-4e72-a905-e9da091e3277\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:Social Security income;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">Social Security income<\/a> they&#8217;re receiving. Between 80% and 90% of respondents noted it was a &#8220;major&#8221; or &#8220;minor&#8221; income source. In other words, only around one in 10 retirees could, in theory, make do without their Social Security check.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">For an overwhelming majority of Social Security beneficiaries, nothing is more important than knowing precisely how much they&#8217;ll receive each month &#8212; and that begins with the program&#8217;s annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), which is announced during the second week of October.<\/p>\n<p>    <img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==\" alt=\"Donald Trump delivering remarks from behind the presidential podium.\" loading=\"eager\" height=\"640\" width=\"960\" class=\"yf-1vr77wf loader\"\/> President Donald Trump delivering remarks. Image source: Official White House Photo by Joyce. N. Boghosian, courtesy of the National Archives.      <\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">This year&#8217;s COLA announcement will be of particular interest, with President Donald Trump&#8217;s tariff and trade policies expected to directly affect how much Social Security beneficiaries will receive per month in 2026.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">But before digging into the specifics of how President Trump&#8217;s policies are expected to impact the pocketbooks of seniors, survivors, and workers with disabilities, it&#8217;s important to understand the building blocks of what Social Security&#8217;s COLA is and why it matters.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">The program&#8217;s COLA is effectively the &#8220;raise&#8221; passed along on a near-annual basis that accounts for the impact of inflation (rising prices) on benefits. For example, if a large basket of goods and services increased in cost by 3% from one year to the next, Social Security benefits would need to climb by a commensurate amount, or buying power for Social Security recipients would decrease.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">In the 35 years following the issuance of the first retired-worker check in January 1940, COLAs were assigned at random by special sessions of Congress. Only a total of 11 COLAs were passed along during this timeline, with no adjustments made in the 1940s.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">Beginning in 1975, the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) was adopted as Social Security&#8217;s inflationary measure that would allow for annual cost-of-living adjustments. The CPI-W has over 200 spending categories, each of which has its own unique percentage weighting. These weightings are what allow the CPI-W to be expressed as a single figure each month, which leads to crisp month-to-month and year-to-year comparisons to see if prices are, collectively, rising (inflation) or declining (deflation).<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">When calculating Social Security&#8217;s COLA, only CPI-W readings from the third quarter (July through September) are taken into consideration. If the average CPI-W reading in the third quarter of the current year is higher than the comparable period of the previous year, inflation has occurred, and beneficiaries are due for a beefier payout.<\/p>\n<p>  <a href=\"https:\/\/ycharts.com\/indicators\/us_inflation_rate\/chart\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==\" alt=\"US Inflation Rate Chart\" loading=\"lazy\" height=\"441\" width=\"720\" class=\"yf-1vr77wf loader\"\/><\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/ycharts.com\/indicators\/us_inflation_rate\/chart\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:A sizable uptick in the prevailing rate of inflation produced above-average COLAs from 2022 through 2025.;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">A sizable uptick in the prevailing rate of inflation produced above-average COLAs from 2022 through 2025. <\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/ycharts.com\/indicators\/us_inflation_rate\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:US Inflation Rate;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">US Inflation Rate<\/a> data by <a href=\"https:\/\/ycharts.com\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:YCharts;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">YCharts<\/a>.     <\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">Following a decade of anemic raises in the 2010s &#8212; three years during the decade (2010, 2011, and 2016) saw no COLA passed along due to deflation &#8212; beneficiaries have enjoyed four consecutive years of above-average cost-of-living adjustments and are hoping for this streak to continue.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">A historic increase in U.S. money supply during the COVID-19 pandemic sent the prevailing rate of inflation soaring to a four-decade high. This resulted in COLAs of 5.9% in 2022, 8.7% in 2023, 3.2% in 2024, and 2.5% in 2025, respectively. For context, the average annual increase in benefits since 2010 is 2.3%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">While estimates for Social Security&#8217;s 2026 cost-of-living adjustment came in below this average shortly after President Donald Trump took office for his nonconsecutive second term, the script has now been flipped.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">Nonpartisan senior advocacy group The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) was forecasting a 2.2% COLA for 2026 as recently as March. Meanwhile, independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst Mary Johnson, who retired from TSCL last year, was calling for a 2.2% increase in April\u00a0following the release of the March inflation report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">After the release of the May inflation report from the BLS, both TSCL and Johnson are now forecasting a 2026 COLA of 2.5%. A 2.5% COLA would increase the average retired-worker benefit by $50 per month next year, as well as lift monthly checks for the typical worker with disabilities and survivor beneficiary by $40 and $39, respectively. This 0.3% increase in both forecasts over the past couple of months is estimated to boost the average Social Security payout (for all beneficiaries) by approximately $5.57 per month in 2026.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">This &#8220;Trump bump&#8221; is the result of the president&#8217;s tariff and trade policies having a very modest inflationary impact on domestic prices. Charging a global import duty on all countries while imposing higher &#8220;reciprocal tariff rates&#8221; on dozens of countries that have historically run adverse trade imbalances with the U.S. can result in these higher costs being passed along to consumers.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">Though a lot can change with Trump&#8217;s tariff and trade policy in the coming weeks and months, its current design points to a modest bump in the 2026 COLA.<\/p>\n<p>  <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==\" alt=\"A visibly concerned couple analyzing their bills and financial statements with the aid of a calculator.\" loading=\"lazy\" height=\"638\" width=\"960\" class=\"yf-1vr77wf loader\"\/> Image source: Getty Images.     <\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">On paper, a fifth consecutive year where COLAs are above average (compared to the previous 16 years) probably sounds great. With the average retired-worker payout cresting $2,000 per month, an added $50 per month would be welcome in 2026.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">But the fact of the matter is that a 0.3% bump in COLA estimates since Trump introduced his tariff and trade policy doesn&#8217;t remotely move the needle when it comes to what retirees have been shortchanged for more than a decade.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">Though the CPI-W is designed to be an all-encompassing measure of inflation, it has an inherent flaw that can be seen in its full name. Specifically, it tracks the spending habits of &#8220;urban wage earners and clerical workers,&#8221; who, in many instances, are working-age Americans not currently receiving a Social Security benefit.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">Urban wage earners and clerical workers spend their money very differently than seniors. Whereas the former has a higher percentage of their monthly budgets devoted to things like education, apparel, and transportation, seniors spend a higher percentage on shelter and medical care services. Even though an overwhelming majority of Social Security beneficiaries are aged 62 and above, the CPI-W doesn&#8217;t factor in this added importance of shelter and medical care services inflation.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">The end result for retirees has been a persistent decline in the buying power of a Social Security dollar. According to a study conducted by TSCL, the purchasing power of a Social Security dollar has dropped by 20% since 2010. A very modest &#8220;Trump bump&#8221; isn&#8217;t going to offset this.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">What&#8217;s more, the aforementioned two costs that matter most to retirees &#8212; shelter and medical care services &#8212; have had higher trailing-12-month (TTM) inflation rates than the annually issued Social Security COLA. The BLS inflation report for May showed TTM increases of 3.9% for shelter and 3% for medical care services, respectively. As long as the program&#8217;s cost-of-living adjustment trails the annual inflation rate for these two key expenses, retirees will continue getting the short end of the stick.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">If you&#8217;re like most Americans, you&#8217;re a few years (or more) behind on your retirement savings. But a handful of little-known\u00a0<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/api.fool.com\/infotron\/infotrack\/click?apikey=35527423-a535-4519-a07f-20014582e03e&amp;impression=d4572029-f51a-4542-9cc2-60740979c752&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fool.com%2Fmms%2Fmark%2Fe-sa-social-security%2F%3Faid%3D10953%26source%3Disaeditxt0010929%26ftm_cam%3Dsa-bbn-retirement%26ftm_veh%3Darticle_pitch_feed_yahoo%26ftm_pit%3D15127&amp;utm_source=yahoo-host-full&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=article&amp;referring_guid=32c58548-0243-4e72-a905-e9da091e3277\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:&quot;Social Security secrets&quot;;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">&#8220;Social Security secrets&#8221;<\/a><\/strong> could help ensure a boost in your retirement income.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\"><strong>One easy trick could pay you as much as $23,760 more<\/strong>&#8230; each year! Once you learn how to maximize your Social Security benefits, we think you could retire confidently with the peace of mind we&#8217;re all after. Join Stock Advisor to learn more about these strategies.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/api.fool.com\/infotron\/infotrack\/click?apikey=35527423-a535-4519-a07f-20014582e03e&amp;impression=d4572029-f51a-4542-9cc2-60740979c752&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fool.com%2Fmms%2Fmark%2Fe-sa-social-security%2F%3Faid%3D10953%26source%3Disaeditxt0010929%26ftm_cam%3Dsa-bbn-retirement%26ryr-ss-intro-report%26ftm_veh%3Darticle_pitch_feed_yahoo%26ftm_pit%3D15127&amp;utm_source=yahoo-host-full&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=article&amp;referring_guid=32c58548-0243-4e72-a905-e9da091e3277\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:View the &quot;Social Security secrets&quot; \u00bb;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">View the &#8220;Social Security secrets&#8221; \u00bb<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\">The Motley Fool has a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fool.com\/legal\/fool-disclosure-policy\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:disclosure policy;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">disclosure policy<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1090901\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fool.com\/retirement\/2025\/06\/21\/social-security-2026-cola-is-getting-a-trump-bump\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:Social Security&#039;s 2026 Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) Estimate Is Getting a &quot;Trump Bump&quot; -- Here&#039;s How Much Extra You Might Receive;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">Social Security&#8217;s 2026 Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) Estimate Is Getting a &#8220;Trump Bump&#8221; &#8212; Here&#8217;s How Much Extra You Might Receive<\/a> was originally published by The Motley Fool<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"As many as nine out of 10 retirees rely on their Social Security income to cover some portion&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":3622,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[64,4683,4685,255,1807,711,4684,67,132,68],"class_list":{"0":"post-3621","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-personal-finance","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-cola","10":"tag-cost-of-living-adjustment","11":"tag-personal-finance","12":"tag-president-trump","13":"tag-social-security","14":"tag-trade-policy","15":"tag-united-states","16":"tag-unitedstates","17":"tag-us"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/114723942749720461","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3621","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3621"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3621\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3622"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3621"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3621"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3621"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}