{"id":37521,"date":"2025-07-04T07:52:10","date_gmt":"2025-07-04T07:52:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/37521\/"},"modified":"2025-07-04T07:52:10","modified_gmt":"2025-07-04T07:52:10","slug":"ask-politifact-how-will-the-republican-megabill-affect-social-securitys-future-solvency","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/37521\/","title":{"rendered":"Ask PolitiFact: How will the Republican megabill affect Social Security\u2019s future solvency?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>As President Donald Trump\u2019s signature tax-and-spending legislation made its way through Congress, a PolitiFact reader wrote to ask about the bill\u2019s impact on Social Security\u2019s long-term ability to pay out benefits.<\/p>\n<p>The reader had seen our recent fact-check of Trump\u2019s statement that the bill will deliver the promise of &#8220;no tax on Social Security.&#8221; We rated that statement <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politifact.com\/factchecks\/2025\/jun\/30\/donald-trump\/trump-tax-social-security-reconciliation-bill\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Mostly False<\/a>: The bill will provide a tax break for Americans ages 65 and over, but it won\u2019t eliminate the Social Security tax entirely. Some 24 million Social Security beneficiaries will still be taxed on some of their checks from the program, according to Congress\u2019 bipartisan Joint Committee on Taxation\u2019s staff director. Many of those are younger than 65 and thus ineligible for the new tax deduction.<\/p>\n<p>The PolitiFact reader asked, &#8220;As I understand your fact checking, the taxes paid on Social Security go to the Social Security trust fund. Does this make the date when benefits will be cut for all come sooner?&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The answer is yes \u2014 and by experts\u2019 analyses, anyone born after 1967 could see the effect.<\/p>\n<p>Taxation of Social Security benefits began with <a href=\"https:\/\/taxfoundation.org\/research\/all\/federal\/social-security-reform-options\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">1983<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/taxfoundation.org\/research\/all\/federal\/social-security-reform-options\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">legislation<\/a> that was designed to help shore up Social Security\u2019s finances. Certain tax revenues, including the taxation of Social Security benefits, are <a href=\"https:\/\/taxfoundation.org\/blog\/trump-social-security-tax\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">deposited directly<\/a> into the Social Security trust fund, to pay for current beneficiaries.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\nSign up for PolitiFact texts<\/p>\n<p>Once the trust fund runs out of money, it will trigger automatic, across-the-board cuts.<\/p>\n<p>In their 2025 annual report, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.crfb.org\/papers\/analysis-2025-social-security-trustees-report\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Social Security<\/a> trustees estimated that the program\u2019s trust fund would become insolvent in 2033. That was before Congress approved Trump\u2019s bill.<\/p>\n<p>The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a fiscally hawkish group, ran the numbers on the Senate version of the bill, which the House approved without changes on July 3. It is headed to Trump\u2019s desk, and he\u2019s said he will sign it.<\/p>\n<p>The group <a href=\"https:\/\/www.crfb.org\/blogs\/obbba-would-accelerate-social-security-medicare-insolvency\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">calculated<\/a> that the changes from Trump\u2019s bill will reduce Social Security tax revenues by $30 billion per year \u2014 meaning the trust fund would be exhausted several months earlier, in 2032 rather than in 2033.<\/p>\n<p>The bill\u2019s estimated impact on Medicare\u2019s hospital insurance trust fund \u2014 which operates in a similar way to the Social Security trust fund \u2014 means the fund would run out mid 2032, not late 2033.<\/p>\n<p>The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget also projected that when insolvency hits in 2032, Social Security recipients would see their benefits cut by 24%, while payments from the Medicare trust fund will decline by 11%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"As President Donald Trump\u2019s signature tax-and-spending legislation made its way through Congress, a PolitiFact reader wrote to ask&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":37522,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[64,452,255,711,30413,30412,67,132,68],"class_list":{"0":"post-37521","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-personal-finance","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-fiscal","10":"tag-personal-finance","11":"tag-social-security","12":"tag-solvency","13":"tag-tax-break","14":"tag-united-states","15":"tag-unitedstates","16":"tag-us"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/114793883665518488","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37521","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37521"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37521\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/37522"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37521"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37521"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37521"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}