The Chiefs have reached the AFC title game all seven seasons Mahomes has been their starter, winning three of the five Super Bowls they have reached. Mahomes\u2019 production is up this season over last. He is throwing the ball farther down the field and using his legs more frequently (36 scrambles, a career high through nine games).<\/p>\n
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills<\/p>\n
Signed through:<\/strong> 2030 | APY rank:<\/strong> T2 | EPA rank: <\/strong>5<\/p>\n The reigning MVP is producing about the same as he has in recent seasons. Even the Bills\u2019 record (6-3) is the norm for Buffalo, which has been better than that twice in seven full seasons with Allen in the lineup. He has 69 more total touchdowns than turnovers over the past three seasons, the largest gap in the league.<\/p>\n Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens<\/p>\n Signed through:<\/strong> 2027 | APY rank:<\/strong> 10 | EPA rank: <\/strong>7<\/p>\n The two-time MVP leads the league in passer rating (127.1), completing 70 percent of his attempts with 15 touchdowns and one interception. He has 80 touchdown passes with 12 interceptions over the past three seasons. The 6.7-to-1 ratio leads the league by far among 35 quarterbacks with at least 17 starts over that span (Joe Burrow is next with a 4-1 ratio: 60 TDs, 15 INTs). The Ravens discussed an extension with Jackson this offseason but did not reach a deal. He will enter 2026 with a cap hit of $74.5 million, the second-to-last year of his contract.<\/p>\n Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals<\/p>\n Signed through:<\/strong> 2029 | APY rank:<\/strong> T2 | EPA rank: <\/strong>N\/A<\/p>\n The Bengals are 16-13 with Burrow in the lineup over the past three seasons, even though he has produced at a high level consistently while earning Tier 1 status from coaches and executives<\/a>. Overcoming the Bengals\u2019 leaky defense has been that difficult. Availability is the only concern for Burrow, who missed six games as a rookie, seven in 2023 and all but two this season. He returned to practice this week and will try to save Cincinnati\u2019s season.<\/p>\n We have a top-five QB for the short termMatthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams<\/p>\n Signed through:<\/strong> 2026 | APY rank:<\/strong> 16 | EPA rank: <\/strong>4<\/p>\n Stafford turns 38 in February and has had sometimes fraught contract negotiations in each of the past two offseasons, including once when the team let him explore trade opportunities. Concerns over his back issues during training camp dampened expectations entering this season, but Stafford has been available every week and is a leading MVP candidate with 25 touchdown passes and only two interceptions for the NFL\u2019s fourth-ranked offense by EPA per play. Coaches and executives got it right when they voted him into Tier 1 for the first time in his career over the summer.<\/p>\n We are having a harder time convincing others that we have a top-five QB signed long termJustin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers<\/p>\n Signed through:<\/strong> 2029 | APY rank:<\/strong> 9 | EPA rank: <\/strong>19<\/p>\n Coaches and executives voted Herbert into Tier 1 from 2022 to 2024, dropping him into Tier 2 this season in the absence of better team results, especially in the playoffs. One evaluator said this week he\u2019d rather have Stafford than Herbert for the next two seasons because, in his view, Herbert has not shown the necessary refinement to belong in that top group. The Chargers are happy to have Herbert now and for the future.<\/p>\n We\u2019re happy with our established franchise QBJared Goff, Detroit Lions<\/p>\n Signed through:<\/strong> 2028 | APY rank:<\/strong> T7 | EPA rank: <\/strong>1<\/p>\n The Lions are tied with Philadelphia for the NFL\u2019s best record (21-5) since signing Goff to an extension before last season. They rank second to Buffalo in offensive EPA per play since then and are fifth this season after losing offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago. Even with Detroit experiencing coordinator turbulence, including head coach Dan Campbell taking over play calling last week, Goff leads the league in EPA per pass play this season.<\/p>\n Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers<\/p>\n Signed through:<\/strong> 2026 | APY rank:<\/strong> 19 | EPA rank: <\/strong>15<\/p>\n Even with injuries slowing the Bucs this season, Tampa Bay\u2019s offense with Mayfield in the lineup has been about as productive as it was over Tom Brady\u2019s tenure with the team. That includes the same EPA per play (+0.4), a higher passer rating and a higher rate of passes gaining more than 15 yards.<\/p>\n Mayfield has been more than a productive quarterback for Tampa Bay. He\u2019s also an emotional leader and clearly their best option for the future. With his three-year, $100 million deal expiring after 2026, he could be due for a substantial raise on a new contract this offseason.<\/p>\n Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys<\/p>\n Signed through:<\/strong> 2028 | APY rank:<\/strong> 1 | EPA rank: <\/strong>10<\/p>\n The Cowboys are 6-10-1 with Prescott in the lineup since they signed him to his latest extension before last season. That is mostly because only Jaxson Dart and Mac Jones have gotten worse support from their defenses among 34 qualifying quarterbacks over that span. For comparison, Burrow has an 11-8 starting record over that span while his defense has, on average, been just as bad (-8.3 EPA per start). (You can learn more about the Betrayal Index<\/a>, a metric that was conceived to measure this dynamic, in the video below from last month.)<\/p>\n Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles<\/p>\n Signed through:<\/strong> 2028 | APY rank:<\/strong> 11 | EPA rank: <\/strong>13<\/p>\n You won\u2019t find Hurts among the stat leaders in passing on a team that leans into the ground game behind an elite offensive line. But in two Super Bowls, he has 525 yards passing, 142 yards rushing, seven total touchdowns, two turnovers and a 109.4 passer rating with one Lombardi Trophy hoisted. He ranks second to Russell Wilson in EPA per pass play in Super Bowls among the eight QBs with more than one Super Bowl start this century.<\/p>\n We can win with our guy, but how good is he?Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers<\/p>\n Signed through:<\/strong> 2030 | APY rank:<\/strong> T7 | EPA rank: <\/strong>11<\/p>\n Purdy has played in only two games since signing his contract extension in the offseason. An injury ended his rookie season as well, so long-term durability could be a concern.<\/p>\n It\u2019s almost too perfect that Purdy ranks 11th and backup Mac Jones ranks 12th in EPA per pass play this season. Coaches and executives think Purdy is better, but they also know the 49ers\u2019 offense has been productive across a range of quarterbacks, including Jimmy Garoppolo.<\/p>\n Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers<\/p>\n Signed through:<\/strong> 2028 | APY rank:<\/strong> T2 | EPA rank: <\/strong>6<\/p>\n Love has 38 touchdown passes with 14 interceptions and the NFL\u2019s sixth-best EPA per pass play (between Mahomes and Burrow) since signing his extension before last season. He\u2019s the present and the future in Green Bay. This season has been bumpier than anticipated, with injuries affecting the line and some of Love\u2019s top targets.<\/p>\n The Packers are 0-3 with Love in the lineup this season when Green Bay\u2019s opponent failed to reach 17 points. NFL teams have won those games 88 percent of the time over the past five seasons (Love was 5-0 in them last season).<\/p>\n C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans<\/p>\n Signed through:<\/strong> 2026 (team option for 2027) | APY rank:<\/strong> 29 | EPA rank: <\/strong>16<\/p>\n Stroud and the Texans have won a playoff game in each of his two full seasons as the starter, but they fired their offensive coordinator, Bobby Slowik, after ranking 24th in offensive EPA per play last season. They rank 25th this season, continue to have O-line problems and are winning with a defense that ranks fifth. Stroud becomes eligible for a new contract after this season. How high should the Texans go?<\/p>\n Our veteran reclamation project is looking goodSam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks<\/p>\n Signed through:<\/strong> 2027 | APY rank:<\/strong> 18 | EPA rank: <\/strong>2<\/p>\n Darnold has been even better for Seattle<\/a> than he was during his breakout 2024 season with the Vikings. His sack rate is half what it was with Minnesota, while his yards per pass attempt (9.9) ranks second to 2000 Kurt Warner (10.0) among quarterbacks with at least 200 attempts through the first nine games of a season since 1970, per Pro Football Reference. It\u2019s looking like Seattle has found its long-term starter.<\/p>\n Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts<\/p>\n Signed through:<\/strong> 2025 | APY rank:<\/strong> 21 | EPA rank: <\/strong>9<\/p>\n Jones is where Darnold was one season ago in terms of reviving his career in a better situation. The big difference for Jones is there is no first-round rookie the team could prefer for the future (as Minnesota did with J.J. McCarthy) and no first-round draft choice<\/a> for the team to consider using on an alternative anytime soon. Jones is in prime position to earn an extension from the Colts. Both sides have leverage, but will either side use it?<\/p>\n All dressed up, no place to goMac Jones, San Francisco 49ers<\/p>\n Signed through:<\/strong> 2026 | APY rank:<\/strong> 48 | EPA rank: <\/strong>12<\/p>\n Jones is in a strange spot as a high-producing backup under contract through next season. The 49ers need him because Purdy has injury concerns. That makes a trade unlikely. Acquiring teams might also question whether they could get the production from Jones that 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan is getting from him. The one season Darnold spent with San Francisco before succeeding in Minnesota could be instructive. Jones, like Darnold, was not in favorable situations before landing with the 49ers.<\/p>\n \n Drake Maye\u2019s second season has gone about as well as anyone in New England could have hoped. (Maddie Meyer \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n Hot stock: Buy!Drake Maye, New England Patriots<\/p>\n Signed through:<\/strong> 2027 (team option for 2028) | APY rank:<\/strong> 28 | EPA rank: <\/strong>3<\/p>\n Maye has the highest passer rating (116.9) through nine games for any qualifying second-year quarterback in NFL history, ahead of Patrick Mahomes and Ben Roethlisberger. Purdy, Carson Wentz and Jeff Garcia round out the top five, so let\u2019s not order a gold jacket for Maye just yet, but all signs point to New England having found its successor to Brady.<\/p>\n Hot stock: HoldJayden Daniels, Washington Commanders<\/p>\n Signed through:<\/strong> 2027 (team option for 2028) | APY rank:<\/strong> 27 | EPA rank: <\/strong>21<\/p>\n Daniels\u2019 rookie season was so impressive, he broke the record Stroud held for the highest debut by a second-year player in Quarterback Tiers<\/a>. Also like Stroud, Daniels has regressed in his second season with a team whose roster issues came to the fore. He has missed games this season with three separate injuries: a sprained knee, a strained hamstring and a dislocated elbow on his non-throwing arm. There\u2019s a chance he could return for Week 13.<\/p>\n Our opponents hope we stay the courseBryce Young, Carolina Panthers<\/p>\n Signed through:<\/strong> 2026 (team option for 2027) | APY rank:<\/strong> 26 | EPA rank: <\/strong>36<\/p>\n Young has proven he\u2019s better than he showed during his rookie season and first two games of 2024, but he hasn\u2019t proven to be even an average starter from a production standpoint. Young is averaging 5.6 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 39th out of 40 quarterbacks with at least 70 attempts this season and is similar to his 5.5 average as a rookie.<\/p>\n He becomes eligible for a contract extension after the season, but Carolina presumably will wait and consider its options. It\u2019s looking like a long shot the Panthers will exercise their option for 2027 before the deadline in May.<\/p>\n Geno Smith, Las Vegas Raiders<\/p>\n Signed through:<\/strong> 2027 | APY rank:<\/strong> 17 | EPA rank: <\/strong>34<\/p>\n Smith did not forget how to play quarterback after leaving Seattle for Las Vegas. The situation with the Raiders is part of the issue. But he is 35 years old and struggling through the first year of a newly configured deal that runs through 2027 and pays him $58.5 million fully guaranteed. If the Raiders want to move on after one season, they would eat Smith\u2019s $18.5 million guaranteed salary for 2026, unless they could find a team willing to trade<\/p>\n Justin Fields, New York Jets<\/p>\n Signed through:<\/strong> 2026 | APY rank:<\/strong> 20 | EPA rank: <\/strong>31<\/p>\n The Jets\u2019 decision to pay $30 million fully guaranteed to Fields was odd at the time and regrettable now. Fields owns the NFL\u2019s highest sack rate (12.3 percent) for an offense with only 22 completions gaining more than 15 yards, which is tied for seventh-worst through nine games out of 830 teams since 2000. Those are among the reasons the Jets loaded up on first-round picks for the purposes of landing their next QB.<\/p>\n Financially stuck, but for how long?Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins<\/p>\n Signed through:<\/strong> 2028 | APY rank:<\/strong> 6 | EPA rank: <\/strong>24<\/p>\n The Dolphins\u2019 contract with Tagovailoa carries $54 million fully guaranteed salary<\/a> for 2026, which might have cost general manager Chris Grier his job while extending the runway for coach Mike McDaniel, who has brought out the best in the quarterback<\/a> to this point, albeit with diminishing returns of late. It\u2019s looking like coach and QB might get one more year to regain their past trajectories.<\/p>\n Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars<\/p>\n Signed through:<\/strong> 2030 | APY rank:<\/strong> T2 | EPA rank: <\/strong>32<\/p>\n Lawrence ranks second to Prescott in annual average salary but 32nd in EPA per pass play, between Fields and Spencer Rattler, among 40 QBs with at least 200 attempts this season. His contract carries $37 million in fully guaranteed salary for 2026, a figure that is high but would not necessarily prevent the Jaguars \u2014 led by a coach and GM who didn\u2019t draft Lawrence or sign him to his extension \u2014 from heading in another direction.<\/p>\n Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals<\/p>\n Signed through:<\/strong> 2028 | APY rank:<\/strong> 12 | EPA rank: <\/strong>20<\/p>\n The Cardinals\u2019 decision to live or die with Jacoby Brissett before placing Murray on injured reserve signaled the likely end<\/a> for Murray under the current staff. What happens after this season remains unknown. Murray\u2019s contract carries $38 million in fully guaranteed salary for 2026. Trading him would likely require the Cardinals to eat much of that salary.<\/p>\n Too early to say, but there\u2019s been good with the badCaleb Williams, Chicago Bears<\/p>\n Signed through:<\/strong> 2027 (team option for 2028) | APY rank:<\/strong> 25 | EPA rank: <\/strong>14<\/p>\n The marriage between Williams and new coach Ben Johnson remains in its early stages, with some positive signs. Williams has cut his sack rate from 10.8 percent as a rookie to 4.6 percent this season, a shift that belies the fact he is scrambling at the same rate, completing about the same percentage of his passes and holding the ball even longer (3.16 average time to throw or sack, up from 2.84 as a rookie). Johnson presumably would like Williams to work toward playing on time more consistently.<\/p>\n Bo Nix, Denver Broncos<\/p>\n Signed through:<\/strong> 2027 (team option for 2028) | APY rank:<\/strong> 40 | EPA rank: <\/strong>22<\/p>\n The Broncos have won seven consecutive games with a mixture of defense and fourth-quarter heroics from Nix and the offense. It\u2019s an unsustainable formula that is temporarily tabling more consequential discussions regarding Nix\u2019s trajectory. The quarterback\u2019s year-over-year efficiency has declined by almost every measure except for sack rate, which was already low. It\u2019s looking like next season will be defining for Nix\u2019s trajectory with the Broncos.<\/p>\n Jaxson Dart, New York Giants<\/p>\n Signed through:<\/strong> 2028 (team option for 2029) | APY rank:<\/strong> 42 | EPA rank: <\/strong>17<\/p>\n![\"Drake](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/GettyImages-2243441678-1-scaled.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\n