{"id":379077,"date":"2025-11-14T20:14:24","date_gmt":"2025-11-14T20:14:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/379077\/"},"modified":"2025-11-14T20:14:24","modified_gmt":"2025-11-14T20:14:24","slug":"hassett-and-leavitt-suggest-limited-data-for-october-clouding-fed-and-wall-street-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/379077\/","title":{"rendered":"Hassett and Leavitt suggest limited data for October, clouding Fed and Wall Street outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"

The markets are ending the week on a low note as the global selloff continued in Asia and Europe this morning, prompted by rising uncertainty stemming from the U.S. economy. Doubts about a much-anticipated December interest rate cut from the Fed are mounting, with the likely outcome obscured by patchy data after Washington\u2019s government shutdown<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Wall Street was bumpy yesterday. The S&P 500 and Dow<\/a> Jones posted contractions of more than 1.6%, while the Nasdaq<\/a> Composite fell by 2.3%. The VIX volatility index shot up by more than 20%, suggesting that skittish analysts expect the turbulence to continue.<\/p>\n

Europe was down in early trading Friday, most notably London\u2019s FTSE 100 and Madrid\u2019s IBEX 35, which dropped by more than 1% apiece. Germany\u2019s DAX also dropped 0.79%. In Asia, Japan\u2019s Nikkei 225 fell 1.77% at the end of the week, while the Shanghai Stock Exchange dropped 0.97% and Hong Kong\u2019s Hang Seng Index fell 1.85%. South Korea\u2019s KOSPI lost an eye-watering 3.81% as foreigners pulled their money out of the country.<\/p>\n

Part of the unease in the market stems from the Federal Open Market Committee\u2019s (FOMC) final base rate decision at the end of the year. A month ago, investors were placing the likelihood at near-95% that Chairman Powell would announce a 25bps cut in the final Fed meeting of the year. Fortune reported earlier this week<\/a> that these odds have steadily fallen, and at the time of writing sit at 50\/50 for a cut or hold, per CME\u2019s FedWatch barometer<\/a>. <\/p>\n

The shift has come down to increasingly hawkish chatter from members of the FOMC, who are unlikely to have a clear picture of the economy come December 9. That\u2019s because the White House has already begun signalling that the data collected during the government shutdown is unlikely to be shared in full. <\/p>\n

\u201cThe Democrats may have permanently damaged the Federal Statistical System with October CPI [Consumer Price Index] and jobs reports likely never being released,\u201d White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt\u00a0told<\/a>\u00a0reporters on Wednesday. \u201cAll of that economic data released will be permanently impaired, leaving our policy makers at the Fed flying blind at a critical period.\u201d<\/p>\n

Yesterday, White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett had more bad news: \u201cThe household survey wasn\u2019t conducted in October, so we\u2019re going to get half the employment report. We\u2019ll get the jobs part, but we won\u2019t get the unemployment rate.\u201d <\/p>\n

Although the data blip will only be for October, it\u2019s a gaping hole in information at a time when the Fed\u2019s dual mandate of inflation at 2% and maximum employment is in particular tension. \u201cWe probably \u2026 will never actually know for sure what the unemployment rate was in October,\u201d Hassett added to Fox News\u2019 \u2018America\u2019s Newsroom\u2019.<\/a><\/p>\n

Trading down on data quality<\/p>\n

Indeed, investors know times are tough when the White House is relying on data from delivery platform DoorDash<\/a> to paint the economic picture. On Monday, the White House posted an update<\/a> titled \u201cLower Prices, Bigger Paychecks,\u201d which claimed \u201cinflation has been tamed, everyday prices are beginning to drop, and wages are growing.\u201d <\/p>\n

While the information offers some insight, economists have warned throughout the government shutdown that private data is something of a keyhole-view on the economy as opposed to the expansive outlook necessary for the Fed and for investors. <\/p>\n

As Erica Groshen<\/a>,\u00a0senior economic advisor at\u00a0Cornell\u00a0University, wrote in a note shared with Fortune, the DoorDash data should not be used as an outright substitute for official federal reporting. The former commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor\u00a0Statistics\u00a0said: \u201cSome prices are always falling, even in the presence of overall inflation. So, it\u2019s not hard to choose some group of products that has falling prices.\u00a0Likewise,\u00a0most private data are by-products of business activities; the underlying data are not designed to answer critical policy questions.\u201d <\/p>\n

She added that data from consumer brands like DoorDash also won\u2019t hold data on other critical consumer expenses like medical care or housing inflation, and \u201cdon\u2019t have a long track record of providing reliable data\u201d akin to federal agencies.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie Group, said he hopes there will soon be \u201can explanation for how, when, and if\u00a0data\u00a0\u2018fill-ins\u2019 will be released.\u201d He added: \u201cIf one\u00a0data\u00a0series may need to be prioritized, however, it is likely to be CPI, since it figures prominently in cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs) used to pay some workers and some benefit recipients.\u201d <\/p>\n

As such, he added in the note yesterday: \u201cWe think that it is possible that Powell is forced into a compromise by which the Fed either (1) stays on hold in December, or (2) if it does cut, is obligated subsequently to signal that the rate cutting cycle may be over.\u201d<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s a snapshot of the markets ahead of the opening bell in New York this morning:<\/strong><\/p>\n