{"id":382397,"date":"2025-11-16T06:30:20","date_gmt":"2025-11-16T06:30:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/382397\/"},"modified":"2025-11-16T06:30:20","modified_gmt":"2025-11-16T06:30:20","slug":"2026-could-finally-be-the-year-home-sales-rebound","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/382397\/","title":{"rendered":"2026 could finally be the year home sales rebound"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"ArticleHeader_desc__hutsL Typography_desc1__kJS_N\">NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun is predicting a 14% rise after three years of sluggish sales \u2014 but that largely depends on what happens with mortgage rates.<\/p>\n<p>Key points:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"ArticleKeyPoints_ul__DpQoz\">\n<li class=\"ArticleKeyPoints_li__ZIHih\">At NAR NXT 2025, Chief Economist Lawrence Yun predicted that the Fed will continue cutting short-term interest rates to combat a softening job market \u2014 which could prompt some sidelined home shoppers to commit to buying in 2026.<\/li>\n<li class=\"ArticleKeyPoints_li__ZIHih\">Yun also expects new home sales to rise, though at a slower pace. Meanwhile, he anticipates that overall home prices will rise 4% next year.<\/li>\n<li class=\"ArticleKeyPoints_li__ZIHih\">NAR\u2019s latest profile of homebuyers and sellers suggests significant demographic shifts are taking place, impacting not only who\u2019s buying a home but how they\u2019re paying for it.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"Document_p__O_O2M\">HOUSTON \u2014 After three years of disappointing home sales, the National Association of Realtors&#8217; chief economist thinks 2026 will finally bring a rebound \u2014 but only if mortgage rates continue to decline.<\/p>\n<p>A 14% bump in home sales is possible \u2014 if mortgage rates play ball<\/p>\n<p class=\"Document_p__O_O2M\">During a Nov. 14 presentation at NAR NXT 2025, Lawrence Yun predicted that existing home sales will jump 14% next year after what&#8217;s expected to be a flat 2025, and new home sales will rise in 2026 following a 2% drop in 2025. Home prices are forecast to rise 4% in 2026 following a 3% bump in 2025.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Document_p__O_O2M\">Yun is also predicting that the 30-year mortgage rate will average around 6% for 2026, down from 6.7% for 2025. After <a class=\"Document_link__d6Jno Accessibility_focusLink__Y4Tn4\" href=\"https:\/\/www.realestatenews.com\/2025\/10\/23\/mortgage-rates-plunge-to-lowest-level-in-over-a-year\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">several weeks of declines<\/a> this fall, the rate is currently <a class=\"Document_link__d6Jno Accessibility_focusLink__Y4Tn4\" href=\"https:\/\/www.realestatenews.com\/2025\/11\/14\/will-home-sales-see-a-post-shutdown-bump\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">hovering around 6.3%<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Document_p__O_O2M\">Yun, along with many others in the industry, thought mortgage rates would drop much more in the past three years following a rate spike in 2022. But <a class=\"Document_link__d6Jno Accessibility_focusLink__Y4Tn4\" href=\"https:\/\/www.realestatenews.com\/2025\/10\/24\/fed-rate-cut-still-likely-even-as-inflation-ticks-up\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">persistent inflation<\/a> \u2014 which remains at around 3% \u2014 has kept 30-year rates hovering near 6.5% or higher.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Document_p__O_O2M\">With few jobs added in recent months and the <a class=\"Document_link__d6Jno Accessibility_focusLink__Y4Tn4\" href=\"https:\/\/www.realestatenews.com\/2025\/10\/03\/a-lack-of-economic-data-could-leave-the-fed-investors-guessing\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">lack of economic data releases<\/a> during the federal government shutdown causing uncertainty about the U.S. economy&#8217;s overall health, Yun said concerns about the weakening labor market now outweigh worries about inflation. This may prompt the Federal Reserve to continue its <a class=\"Document_link__d6Jno Accessibility_focusLink__Y4Tn4\" href=\"https:\/\/www.realestatenews.com\/2025\/10\/29\/data-fog-drops-odds-of-lower-mortgage-rates-despite-fed-cut\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">recent trend of cutting short-term interest rates<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>2 Fed rate cuts in 2026?<\/p>\n<p class=\"Document_p__O_O2M\">The central bank is cutting rates &#8220;to make sure we don&#8217;t go into an economic recession,&#8221; Yun said, adding that he expects the Fed to cut rates again in December \u2014 and two more times next year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Document_p__O_O2M\">These moves by the Fed combined with a weaker job market should lead to a drop in mortgage rates. But Yun doesn&#8217;t expect the decline to be steep, as government debt and other factors will provide some headwinds.<\/p>\n<p>Understanding real estate&#8217;s notable shifts<\/p>\n<p class=\"Document_p__O_O2M\"><strong>First-time buyers are getting older:<\/strong> The national media has been buzzing over NAR&#8217;s latest <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nar.realtor\/research-and-statistics\/research-reports\/highlights-from-the-profile-of-home-buyers-and-sellers\" class=\"Document_link__d6Jno Accessibility_focusLink__Y4Tn4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer nofollow noopener\">profile of homebuyers and sellers<\/a>, which found that the median age of first-time buyers has climbed to 40. But NAR Deputy Chief Economist Jessica Lautz pointed out that there are other big changes taking place when it comes to home purchases.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Document_p__O_O2M\">With the median age of first-time buyers higher than ever, agents are facing a different kind of client compared to 10 or 20 years ago. &#8220;Not only are they middle-aged, but we also see that they have higher incomes,&#8221; Lautz said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Document_p__O_O2M\"><strong>Fewer buyers with young kids:<\/strong> The composition of who is buying homes has also changed. With more single people purchasing homes, there are fewer buyers with children under 18.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Document_p__O_O2M\">&#8220;So that perfect school district \u2014 it matters to parents, absolutely. But for those who are child-free families, it doesn&#8217;t necessarily,&#8221; Lautz said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Document_p__O_O2M\"><strong>The &#8216;grandbaby effect&#8217;: <\/strong>Meanwhile, some generations are just not moving. The typical stay in a home is now 11 years, up from the historical average of six or seven, and Gen Xers and older millennials in particular are tending to stay put.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Document_p__O_O2M\">Lautz said it&#8217;s important for the industry to understand that consumers&#8217; reasons for moving have also shifted. When the average stay in a home was six or seven years, a job change was the most common reason for a move. Today, the top reason is to be closer to friends and family.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Document_p__O_O2M\">&#8220;I call this the grandbaby effect, because when we look at the data, what we see is that people are relocating to be closer to the grandkids,&#8221; Lautz said. That makes sense, she added, with the typical age of a repeat buyer having risen to 62.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Document_p__O_O2M\"><strong>Rise in cash purchases, higher down payments: <\/strong>Another trend Lautz highlighted: cash purchases. While it&#8217;s not surprising that all-cash purchases are hovering around all-time highs amid elevated mortgage rates, what might be unexpected is that 8% of first-time buyers are paying in cash. Overall down payment amounts are also near record levels.<\/p>\n<p class=\"Document_p__O_O2M\">Not only are these older first-time buyers relying on cash savings or family assistance for <a class=\"Document_link__d6Jno Accessibility_focusLink__Y4Tn4\" href=\"https:\/\/www.realestatenews.com\/2025\/07\/07\/20-down-how-to-help-buyers-who-dont-know-thats-a-myth\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">down payments<\/a> \u2014 they&#8217;re also tapping into financial assets. &#8220;This is very unusual, because we&#8217;ve never seen it (financial assets) outpace the &#8216;Bank of Mom and Dad,'&#8221; Lautz said, noting that it might be more uncomfortable to borrow from parents at 40 than at a younger age.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun is predicting a 14% rise after three years of sluggish sales \u2014 but&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":382398,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[64,79,67,132,68],"class_list":{"0":"post-382397","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-economy","10":"tag-united-states","11":"tag-unitedstates","12":"tag-us"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/115557972455589174","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/382397","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=382397"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/382397\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/382398"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=382397"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=382397"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=382397"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}