Indeed Canada\u2019s latest data show holiday job postings running about 12 per cent higher than last year \u2014 a modest rebound but still well below pre-pandemic levels. (Nick Lachance\/Toronto Star via Getty Images) \u00b7 Nick Lachance via Getty Images <\/p>\n
Canada\u2019s job market keeps defying expectations, but not in any single direction. Retailers are hiring again for the holidays and consumers are still spending, yet small-business confidence has sunk to some of the lowest levels since the pandemic.<\/p>\n
The mixed signals \u2014 which come alongside months of erratic swings in national jobs data \u2014 come down to one thing both economists and business owners agree on: uncertainty.<\/p>\n
\u201cThat\u2019s what uncertainty does,\u201d said Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) economist Andreea Bourgeois. \u201cIt makes everything have a question mark next to it.\u201d<\/p>\n
Indeed Canada\u2019s latest data show holiday job postings running about 12 per cent higher<\/a> than last year \u2014 a modest rebound after two sluggish seasons, but still well below pre-pandemic levels. Most of the openings are in retail and customer-service roles, reflecting a consumer economy that remains surprisingly steady.<\/p>\n Bourgeois told Yahoo Finance Canada the October survey data are the most relevant for assessing holiday hiring plans, and they show retailer optimism near 42 on its monthly barometer \u2014 a level Bourgeois calls \u201cstatistically pessimistic.\u201d She says many small retailers are hiring \u201cvery timidly,\u201d often adding hours to existing staff rather than new headcount \u2014 a sign businesses are \u201cdoing what they can with the people they have\u201d to keep pace with consumers who are still, for now<\/a>, spending.<\/p>\n The bump in Indeed Canada\u2019s seasonal postings could be due in part to that surprising resilience in consumer spending, says Brendon Bernard, the job platform\u2019s senior economist. How long that lasts is, however, less clear. CIBC economist Benjamin Tal says households have been drawing down savings to maintain their spending power even as borrowing costs stay high. \u201cConsumption in Canada surprised on the upside,\u201d he told Yahoo Finance Canada recently<\/a>. \u201cIt was financed by a lower savings rate, therefore unsustainable.\u201d CIBC’s recent report notes that “pressure is quietly building at the edges of the market,” particularly for non-mortgage holders and lower-credit borrowers.<\/p>\n A lot of the economy actually slows down its hiring toward the end of the year.Brendon Bernard, Indeed Canada<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n It\u2019s a fragile arrangement: consumers are propping up retailers, and retailers are stretching to meet demand without the confidence to expand. Bernard says this year\u2019s increase in holiday job postings is just \u201ca partial bounce-back\u201d from declines in 2023 and 2024. Postings are concentrated in retail and customer-service roles rather than full-time positions.<\/p>\n Bernard and Bourgeois both describe the broader Canadian job market as being splintered into dozens of smaller stories. Bernard says the modest rebound in holiday hiring represents just \u201cone corner\u201d of a deeply uneven economy. \u201cA lot of the economy actually slows down its hiring towards the end of the year,\u201d he noted. Bourgeois says optimism among tariff-exposed sectors such as manufacturing and transportation has been \u201cabysmal,\u201d while service-oriented sectors like health, education and personal services are \u201cstill coasting.\u201d She notes that in March, when fear over new tariffs peaked, overall optimism fell to an index level of just 25 \u2014 \u201cworse than the pandemic.\u201d Retail optimism has since climbed, but remains well below 50.<\/p>\n The contrast reflects a wider patchwork: businesses hit by tariffs, still-high borrowing costs or slower investment are laying low, while businesses tied to everyday spending are still moving, if cautiously.<\/p>\n The contradictory signals in hiring and confidence echo the turbulence in Canada\u2019s economic data. Several economists have described recent Labour Force Survey data<\/a> as \u201cwild\u201d; Bernard notes that it has been \u201creally volatile,\u201d with monthly job changes swinging widely and the full-time\/part-time split \u201calso volatile.\u201d<\/p>\n Bourgeois says the same instability now shows up in her own survey results. Indicators that once moved by one or two points a month now swing by four to six. She calls it a statistical reflection of an economy still struggling to find direction.<\/p>\n For now, consumer demand is keeping some parts of the labour market from stalling, but both Bernard and Bourgeois describe a fragile balance. Bernard says he hasn\u2019t seen evidence of a major shift coming in 2026, only a continuation of the same hesitant growth.<\/p>\n Bourgeois hears the same mix of fatigue and perseverance from small-business owners. The CFIB recently asked its members to describe their year in a word or short sentence, she says. \u201cThey didn’t say the year was great, obviously, but they didn’t say the year was bad either. So, I was impressed by how resilient these small businesses were.\u201d<\/p>\n John MacFarlane is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance Canada. Follow him on X @jmacf<\/a>.<\/p>\n Download the Yahoo Finance app, available for Apple<\/a> and Android<\/a>.<\/p>\n \n