WASHINGTON (AP) \u2014 What was once seen as a near-certain cut in interest rates next month now looks more like a coin flip as Federal Reserve officials sharply disagree over the economy\u2019s health and whether stubborn inflation or weak hiring represent a bigger threat. <\/p>\n
In several speeches in the past week<\/a>, some policymakers have registered greater concern over persistent inflation in an echo of the \u201caffordability\u201d concerns<\/a> that played a large role in elections earlier this month<\/a>. <\/p>\n At the same time, another camp is much more concerned about meager hiring<\/a> and the threat that the \u201clow-hire, low-fire\u201c job market<\/a> could worsen into one where layoffs become more widespread. <\/p>\n The turmoil on the Fed\u2019s 19-member interest-rate setting committee reflects a deeply uncertain economic outlook brought about by multiple factors, including tariffs, artificial intelligence, and changes in immigration and tax policies.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s reflective of a ton of uncertainty,\u201d said Luke Tilley, chief economist at M&T Bank. \u201cIt\u2019s not surprising at all that there\u2019s a wide divergence of opinions.\u201d<\/p>\n Fewer rate cuts by the Fed could leave borrowing costs for homes<\/a> and cars elevated. More expensive mortgages and auto loans contribute to the widespread view, according to polls<\/a>, that the cost of living is too high. <\/p>\n Some Fed watchers say that an unusually high number of dissents are possible at the December 9-10 meeting, regardless of whether the central bank reduces rates or not. Krishna Guha, an analyst at Evercore ISI, said a decision to cut could lead to as many as four or five dissents, while a decision to keep rates unchanged could produce three.<\/p>\n Four dissenting votes would be highly unusual, given the Fed\u2019s history of seeking consensus. The last time four officials dissented was in 1992, under then-Chair Alan Greenspan.<\/p>\n Fed governor Christopher Waller on Monday noted that critics of the Fed often accuse it of \u201cgroup think,\u201d since many of its decisions are made unanimously.<\/p>\n \u201cPeople who are accusing us of this, get ready,\u201d Waller said Monday in remarks in London. \u201cYou might see the least group think you\u2019ve seen … in a long time.\u201d<\/p>\n The differences have been exacerbated by the government shutdown\u2019s interruption of economic data<\/a>, a particular challenge for a Fed that Chair Jerome Powell has often described as \u201cdata dependent.\u201d The government\u2019s last jobs report was for August, and inflation for September. <\/p>\n September jobs data will finally be published Thursday<\/a>, and are expected to show a small gain of 50,000 jobs that month and an unchanged unemployment rate at a still-low 4.3%. <\/p>\n For now, Wall Street investors put the odds of a December rate cut at 50-50, according to CME Fedwatch<\/a>, down sharply from nearly 94% a month ago. The decline has contributed to the stock market\u2019s drops this week. <\/p>\n After cutting their key rate in September for the first time this year, Fed policymakers signaled they expected to cut twice more, in October and December. <\/p>\n