At some point on Thursday night, the NHL officially finished the first quarter of its schedule. We\u2019re not going to say \u201cquarter pole,\u201d because it\u2019s a horse-racing term that almost never is used correctly.<\/p>\n
In any case, Power Rankings HQ is marking the occasion with a simple game of \u201cgreen flag, red flag.\u201d There are (generally) real reasons for optimism for every team and, of course, real reasons for pessimism.<\/p>\n
Also, as was the case last week, there\u2019s pure chaos in the middle of the list.<\/p>\n
1. Colorado Avalanche, 14-1-5<\/p>\n
Last week: 1
Sean: 1
Dom: 1<\/p>\n
Green flag:<\/strong> (Almost) everything!<\/p>\n In a league where 27 teams feel interchangeably mid, the Avalanche stand alone as The True Good Team. They\u2019re an absolute wagon at five-on-five and it\u2019s amazing that this deep into November, they\u2019ve lost just once in regulation.<\/p>\n Red flag:<\/strong> The power play<\/p>\n We\u2019re tight on bad things to say about this team because, really, there is only one: Colorado\u2019s bafflingly bad power play. It boggles the mind that a unit with this much talent not only can\u2019t score, but isn\u2019t even getting chances that it bears repeating daily until it\u2019s fixed.<\/p>\n 2. Carolina Hurricanes, 13-5-2<\/p>\n Last week: 4 Green flag:<\/strong> Shayne Gostisbehere is nasty<\/p>\n Guess who leads the NHL with an average Game Score of 2.58. Gostisbehere didn\u2019t get there by offense alone, either \u2014 his actual and expected goal shares are both well into the 70s, and he has the lowest expected goals against\/per 60 in the league among defensemen.<\/p>\n Red flag:<\/strong> The end of Selke Staal?<\/p>\n Since 2017-18, the Hurricanes have been outscored with Staal on the ice just once. They\u2019re in a 10-9 deficit there at the moment, and his expected goal share (51.5) would be his worst since 2020-21.<\/p>\n 3. Dallas Stars, 13-5-3<\/p>\n Last week: 2 Green flag:<\/strong> Miro Heiskanen, Norris finalist?<\/p>\n It\u2019s almost strange that a player so good and so respected has never come all that close to winning the Norris. If he keeps this up, that\u2019ll change. He\u2019s providing his typically high-end play in monster minutes, including 28:13 on Thursday, and his production is up: He\u2019s fifth among defensemen with 19 points, and his 2.13 points\/60 is nearly a full point above last season.<\/p>\n Red flag:<\/strong> Thomas Harley<\/p>\n A week-to-week injury is never good news, but it might serve as some sort of explanation for Harley\u2019s play in his first 18 games: Dallas was outscored 15-9 with him on the ice, and his expected goal share was about 42 percent.<\/p>\n 4. Anaheim Ducks, 13-7-1<\/p>\n Last week: 5 Green flag:<\/strong> Jacob Trouba being worth every penny<\/p>\n We don\u2019t know what\u2019s gotten into Trouba, but he continues to be one of the brightest spots on Anaheim\u2019s blue line. A late-career renaissance like this is a nice bonus for a team on the rise.<\/p>\n Red flag:<\/strong> Pavel Mintyukov not progressing<\/p>\n Two straight healthy scratches and reports about trade demands if he doesn\u2019t play has put Mintyukov\u2019s name top of mind for the week. By Net Rating, his minus-2.2 is last among Ducks defensemen and one of the worst in the league. After a decent rookie season, it\u2019s been disappointing to not see him take the leap.<\/p>\n 5. New Jersey Devils, 13-6-1<\/p>\n Last week: 3 Green flag:<\/strong> Jake Allen<\/p>\n Historically, Allen is at his best when he\u2019s pushing the starter. As soon as he\u2019s anointed the starter, everything goes awry. For now, the starter is still Jacob Markstrom, and so that means the Devils are getting peak Allen, whose .917 is third among goalies that have played 10 or more games.<\/p>\n Red flag:<\/strong> Jacob Markstrom<\/p>\n Aside from all the injuries, New Jersey\u2019s biggest issue right now is that the starter it just signed to an extension doesn\u2019t look like a starter anymore. Thank god for Allen or this team would not be so comfy near the top of the East.<\/p>\n 6. Vegas Golden Knights, 10-4-6<\/p>\n Last week: 9 Green flag:<\/strong> Shea Theodore doing his best Miro Heiskanen impression<\/p>\n He may not be getting as many points as he usually does, but the smooth-skating Theodore has been cooking defensively. He\u2019s got some eye-opening defensive numbers in tough minutes.<\/p>\n Red flag:<\/strong> The bottom six is getting crushed<\/p>\n One of the things we loved about Vegas going into the season was that they added a superstar to an already deep forward group. Mitch Marner has held up his end with the team\u2019s top six stars, but the rest of the lineup is having a tough time. Without Jack Eichel or Tomas Hertl on the ice this year, Vegas is getting outscored 18-9 with a 44 percent xG.<\/p>\n 7. Winnipeg Jets, 12-7-0<\/p>\n Last week: 11 Green flag:<\/strong> The blue line getting healthy<\/p>\n A lot of people were bemoaning Winnipeg\u2019s underlying numbers to start the season, but since Dylan Samberg returned, the Jets are right at 50 percent xG. More importantly, their usually strong defensive numbers are back to normal.<\/p>\n Red flag:<\/strong> The third pair<\/p>\n What Samberg\u2019s lengthy absence exposed is just how bad Winnipeg\u2019s third pair is. Logan Stanley, Luke Schenn, Haydn Fleury, Colin Miller are a tough combination of bad options.<\/p>\n 8. Tampa Bay Lightning, 11-7-2<\/p>\n Last week: 10 Green flag:<\/strong> Surviving injuries on defense<\/p>\n We\u2019re still not sure who Charle-Edouard D\u2019astous is, but he\u2019s currently playing top four minutes with Erik Cernak while Darren Raddysh lines up next to J.J. Moser. It\u2019s rough without Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh, but the Lightning are finding ways to manage and that bodes well for when they do get healthy.<\/p>\n Red flag:<\/strong> They keep galaxy-braining the power play<\/p>\n Enough is enough, just put Brandon Hagel on PP1. Oliver Bjorkstrand has one goal in 19 games, the top unit is worse with him on it and the man advantage has been a major weak spot. Don\u2019t overthink it, Coop! Stop trying to make Bjorkstrand happen, it\u2019s not going to happen!<\/p>\n 9. New York Islanders, 12-7-2<\/p>\n Last week: 22 Green flag:<\/strong> Bo Horvat has been one of the NHL\u2019s best players<\/p>\n Horvat isn\u2019t just tied for second in the league in goals, with 14 \u2014 he\u2019s carrying around an average Game Score of 1.7, comfortably in the top 10, and a Net Rating higher than Connor McDavid and Macklin Celebrini, among many others. That\u2019ll keep him in the Olympic discussion.<\/p>\n Red flag:<\/strong> Alex Romanov has been one of the NHL\u2019s worst players<\/p>\n Down at the absolute bottom of the Net Rating list is Romanov, with a minus-6.6. Mix that in with the upper-body injury he sustained when Mikko Rantanen drove him into the net, and it\u2019s tough not to feel bad for the guy.<\/p>\n 10. Florida Panthers, 11-8-1<\/p>\n Last week: 13 Green flag:<\/strong> Brad Marchand is still elite<\/p>\n Marchand\u2019s last season in Boston was tougher than usual to watch at times and he looked a step behind at 4 Nations. Forgive anyone who thought the end was near because Marchand certainly made it seem that way.<\/p>\n Then the playoffs happened and Marchand looked like his old self again, completely rejuvenated. And that doesn\u2019t look like it was a one-off either. With 13 goals and 23 points in 18 games, Marchand has been Florida\u2019s top offensive catalyst.<\/p>\n Red flag:<\/strong> Sergei Bobrovsky<\/p>\n Life would be a lot easier for the Barkov-less and Tkachuk-less Panthers if their franchise goalie could carry the load for a little bit. Sergei Bobrovsky was sporting an .881 and a bottom 10 spot in GSAx going into Thursday\u2019s game where he pitched a shutout. More of that, please.<\/p>\n 11. Los Angeles Kings, 10-6-5<\/p>\n Last week: 7 Green flag:<\/strong> Succession<\/p>\n What we needed to see this season: Quinton Byfield and Brandt Clarke showing progression toward franchise status.<\/p>\n What we\u2019re getting: Exactly that. Byfield and Clarke have arguably been two of the Kings\u2019 most impactful players in the first quarter.<\/p>\n Red flag:<\/strong> Shorthanded goals against<\/p>\n The Kings are one of the rare teams that use a 5F power play and they\u2019re seeing the risks of that through the first 20 games with 2.1 shorthanded goals against per 60 \u2014 third worst in the league. The worst part is they\u2019re not even seeing the offensive benefit and currently rank 23rd in power-play goals per 60.<\/p>\n 12. Washington Capitals, 11-8-2<\/p>\n Last week: 24 Green flag:<\/strong> They\u2019re one of the best five-on-five teams in the league<\/p>\n Only the Avs have outscored opponents more dramatically at five-on-five than the Caps (50-30). Their expected goal share is top five, as well.<\/p>\n Red flag:<\/strong> They have some of the worst combined special teams in the league<\/p>\n Unfortunately for Washington, the entire game is not played at five-on-five. Even after a two-goal night on Thursday, their power play is near the bottom of the league in actual and expected goals per 60. Their penalty kill is, too.<\/p>\n 13. Ottawa Senators, 10-6-4<\/p>\n Last week: 8 Green flag:<\/strong> Team defense<\/p>\n No team in the league allows fewer expected goals at five-on-five than Ottawa (2.17). Seven individual players are sub-2.00, including Jake Sanderson and Shane Pinto.<\/p>\n Red flag:<\/strong> Linus Ullmark<\/p>\n In terms of actual goals against, though, Ottawa is all the way down at 19th (2.53). Blame their .893 team save percentage for that. Basically, blame Ullmark, who\u2019s allowed nearly five goals more than expected at five-on-five and 7.5 overall.<\/p>\n 14. Detroit Red Wings, 12-8-1<\/p>\n Last week: 15 Green flag:<\/strong> The Core Four \u2122<\/p>\n Going into Thursday\u2019s games, Detroit\u2019s Core Four \u2122 of Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond, Alex DeBrincat and Moritz Seider carried a combined plus-20 Net Rating. All four land in the league\u2019s top 40. Hooray!<\/p>\n Red flag:<\/strong> The Other 18 \u2122<\/p>\n The rest of the skaters combine for a minus-17 Net Rating. Boo! That\u2019s the second-largest gap in the league behind only Edmonton.<\/p>\n 15. Pittsburgh Penguins, 10-5-4<\/p>\n Last week: 16 Green flag:<\/strong> Erik Karlsson has learned how to defend<\/p>\n Hands up if you expected Karlsson to be carrying a higher Defensive Rating (plus-1.4) than Ryan McDonagh and Travis Sanheim. Pittsburgh has outscored opponents 14-9 with him on the ice.<\/p>\n Red flag:<\/strong> Penalty differential<\/p>\n No team has spent less time on the power play, which has undermined a unit that is scoring more actual goals per 60 (13.0) and generating more expected (12.1) than anybody in the league.<\/p>\n 16. Utah Mammoth, 10-8-3<\/p>\n Last week: 6 Green flag:<\/strong> Their penalty kill<\/p>\n Only six teams allow fewer shorthanded goals than the Mammoth (5.62 per 60), and just one has been better at suppressing quality chances (6.9 expected goals per 60).<\/p>\n Red flag:<\/strong> Mediocrity from Mikhail Sergachev<\/p>\n If you\u2019re optimistic about the Mammoth, some of that hinges on Sergachev playing like a No. 1 defenseman \u2014 and that hasn\u2019t been the case so far. Utah is getting outscored 18-13 with him on the ice at five-on-five, and his expected goal share isn\u2019t much better.<\/p>\n 17. Philadelphia Flyers, 10-6-3<\/p>\n Last week: 17 Green flag:<\/strong> Christian Dvorak has worked out nicely<\/p>\n In terms of five-on-five points-per-60, Christian Dvorak\u2019s career high is 1.97 back in 2021-22. He\u2019s at 2.46 for the year so far. That\u2019s a great start and some surprisingly nice bang-for-their-buck from the Flyers.<\/p>\n Red flag:<\/strong> Matvei Michkov has been Tocchet\u2019d<\/p>\n Clayton Keller and Elias Pettersson, meet Matvei Michkov.<\/p>\n 18. Chicago Blackhawks, 10-6-4<\/p>\n Last week: 23 Green flag:<\/strong> Spencer Knight \u2014 Olympian<\/p>\n Get this guy to Milan, he\u2019s earned it. His 19.7 goals saved above expected is downright Hellebuyckian<\/p>\n Red flag:<\/strong> The ol\u2019 105 PDO<\/p>\n No one wants to be the fun police for a hockey team emerging from the abyss. If someone tries to \u201cWell, actually\u201d you that the version of Connor Bedard scoring at a 125-point pace is actually bad, pay them no mind.<\/p>\n But, if the bar has been raised toward discussing Chicago as an actual playoff threat this season, the team\u2019s sky-high PDO is the unfortunate elephant in the room. The Blackhawks have banked enough points early to make some noise, but if they want staying power, they\u2019ll need to start consistently controlling play to a better degree. The Bedard-Knight connection should get them a better goal differential than expected \u2014 just not to the current degree.<\/p>\n 19. Seattle Kraken, 10-5-5<\/p>\n Last week: 19 Green flag:<\/strong> Matt Murray is back<\/p>\n It\u2019s been a long road back to relevancy for Matt Murray, who played just two games last season, but his first five for the Kraken have felt revelatory. He looks like his old self again with a .924 save percentage and 5.6 goals saved. If the Kraken play their cards right, they might be able to get a first-round pick out of Edmonton.<\/p>\n Red flag:<\/strong> Worst xG in the league<\/p>\n No one really wants to believe in the Kraken with their whole chest, even if Seattle is currently third in the Pacific based on points percentage. No team gets out-chanced more than the Kraken and that\u2019s the reddest of all red flags on the list. Don\u2019t buy their record.<\/p>\n 20. Minnesota Wild, 10-7-4<\/p>\n Last week: 26 Green flag:<\/strong> Jesper Wallstedt<\/p>\n Wallstedt just went nearly three hours\u2019 worth of game time without allowing a goal, pushing his save percentage up to .926 and GSAx up to nearly four. That\u2019s the sort of play that made Wallstedt a top prospect before a messy 2024-25 AHL season.<\/p>\n Red flag:<\/strong> They already paid Filip Gustavsson<\/p>\n There\u2019s nothing wrong with having multiple options in net, and Gustavsson has been better than his .897 save percentage indicates, but that five-year, $34 million contract he signed all the way back in October might come back to haunt Minnesota.<\/p>\n 21. Columbus Blue Jackets, 11-8-2<\/p>\n Last week: 21 Green flag:<\/strong> Zach Werenski looks Norris-calibre again<\/p>\n In case you were on the fence about Werenski\u2019s place in the elite defenseman hierarchy, he\u2019s putting on another Norris-worthy season with the Blue Jackets. Werenski probably won\u2019t catch Cale Makar, but he\u2019s playing big minutes, scoring a bunch and absolutely tilting the ice at five-on-five. His impact on xG and goals is among the league\u2019s very best.<\/p>\n Red flag:<\/strong> The regression boys<\/p>\n Last season, Kent Johnson\u2019s on-ice shooting percentage of 13.2 percent was fourth highest in the league. Sean Monahan\u2019s 12.0 percent was 17th. Both have struggled to score out of the gate and not getting those same bounces is a big reason why. Johnson, in particular, ranks last on the Blue Jackets at 6.9 percent.<\/p>\n 22. Montreal Canadiens, 10-7-3<\/p>\n Last week: 12 Green flag:<\/strong> Overtime magic<\/p>\n The Canadiens have played eight overtime games this season, won five and taken two more to the shootout. Given the state of the Eastern Conference, an extra point here or there could be the difference between a wild-card spot and a lottery slot.<\/p>\n Red flag:<\/strong> Sam Montembeault\u2019s timing<\/p>\n Goaltender volatility can work against a team in both directions; back in 2022-23, Montembeault was too good, racking up 17 GSAx in a tank season for the Canadiens and wrecking their chances at drafting Connor Bedard. Now, after two more solid seasons and with his team fully in \u201cwin now\u201d mode, Montembeault has been brutal (.852 save percentage, minus-8.4 GSAx)<\/p>\n 23. San Jose Sharks, 10-8-3<\/p>\n Last week: 25 Green flag:<\/strong> Yaroslav Askarov is becoming elite<\/p>\n After a very weak start to the season, Askarov has put on a show in November. Going into Thursday, he had six straight games saving more goals than expected, culminating in 13.9 goals saved and a .959 save percentage. That\u2019s stupid good.<\/p>\n Red flag:<\/strong> The John Klingberg and Nick Leddy experience<\/p>\n One reason Askarov has saved so many goals above expected is that the Sharks allow so many expected goals against. Not to point fingers, but maybe adding two veterans who have a history of doing exactly that was not the best move.<\/p>\n 24. Edmonton Oilers, 9-9-5<\/p>\n Last week: 18 Green flag:<\/strong> They still have two MVPs<\/p>\n A ho-hum start for Edmonton\u2019s big guns still means that one (Connor McDavid) is 10th among forwards in Net Rating and the other (Leon Draisaitl) is 16th.<\/p>\n Red flag:<\/strong> They still don\u2019t have much else<\/p>\n Overall, the Oilers are bottom 10 in expected and actual goals at 5-on-5. A poor supporting cast at forward? Who could\u2019ve seen this coming? Jack Roslovic is third on the team in goals, and he signed about 15 minutes before the season began.<\/p>\n 25. New York Rangers, 10-10-2<\/p>\n Last week: 14 Green flag:<\/strong> Their ability to defend<\/p>\n No team allows fewer goals at five-on-five than the Rangers (1.77 per 60). They\u2019re tied for second-best in expected goals against, too (2.25 per 60). How is this team 26th in points percentage?<\/p>\n Red flag:<\/strong> Their ability to score<\/p>\n That\u2019s how. They\u2019re middle-of-the-pack in expected goals percentage and fifth from the bottom in goals per 60. J.T. Miller, phantom backcheck aside, embodies their issues \u2014 he\u2019s been solid defensively but has generated next to nothing with the puck.<\/p>\n 26. Toronto Maple Leafs, 9-9-3<\/p>\n Last week: 29 Green flag:<\/strong> The big bad Leafs have the league\u2019s best hit differential<\/p>\n For all the people who have demanded the Leafs get more truculence, belligerence and pugnacity, it\u2019s time to soak up this moment: You did it! No team wins the hit battle every night better than the Leafs who have delivered 142 more hits than they\u2019ve taken this year. Congratulations!<\/p>\n Red flag:<\/strong> How they spent Mitch Marner\u2019s $11 million of cap space<\/p>\n For all the people who have said that \u201ccap space\u201d was a better asset than Marner\u2019s last contract, well, you\u2019re getting an expensive lesson as to why that was always a fantasy. The Leafs are paying Matias Maccelli, Nicolas Roy, Dakota Joshua and Scott Laughton a combined total of $11.2 million this year. And it\u2019s going great!<\/p>\n 27. Boston Bruins, 12-10-0<\/p>\n Last week: 20 Green flag:<\/strong> Jeremy Swayman is back<\/p>\n After a lost season, Swayman has reverted to form. He\u2019s fifth in the league with 12.5 goals saved above expected and has generally looked like the guy Boston thought they were signing to a long-term, big-money deal.<\/p>\n Red flag:<\/strong> Marat Khusnutdinov is their 1C<\/p>\n Injuries to Elias Lindholm and Casey Mittelstadt have wreaked havoc on Boston\u2019s shaky-on-a-good-day center depth chart. That means Khusnutdinov \u2014 who has 22 points in 108 NHL games \u2014 is centering David Pastrnak and Morgan Geekie. He\u2019s been OK thus far, but yikes.<\/p>\n 28. Vancouver Canucks, 9-11-2<\/p>\n Last week: 28
Sean: 2
Dom: 2<\/p>\n
Sean: 4
Dom: 3<\/p>\n
Sean: 3
Dom: 4<\/p>\n
Sean: 5
Dom: 6<\/p>\n
Sean: 6
Dom: 5<\/p>\n
Sean: 7
Dom: 8<\/p>\n
Sean: 10
Dom: 7<\/p>\n
Sean: 8
Dom: 10<\/p>\n
Sean: 11
Dom: 9<\/p>\n
Sean: 9
Dom: 12<\/p>\n
Sean: 12
Dom: 11<\/p>\n
Sean: 15
Dom: 13<\/p>\n
Sean: 14
Dom: 14<\/p>\n
Sean: 13
Dom: 17<\/p>\n
Sean: 17
Dom: 15<\/p>\n
Sean: 18
Dom: 16<\/p>\n
Sean: 16
Dom: 21<\/p>\n
Sean: 20
Dom: 19<\/p>\n
Sean: 19
Dom: 20<\/p>\n
Sean: 21
Dom: 19<\/p>\n
Sean: 22
Dom: 22<\/p>\n
Sean: 25
Dom: 23<\/p>\n
Sean: 25
Dom: 24<\/p>\n
Sean: 24
Dom: 26<\/p>\n
Sean: 26
Dom: 25<\/p>\n
Sean: 27
Dom: 27<\/p>\n
Sean: 28
Dom: 28<\/p>\n