{"id":39585,"date":"2025-07-05T01:57:10","date_gmt":"2025-07-05T01:57:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/39585\/"},"modified":"2025-07-05T01:57:10","modified_gmt":"2025-07-05T01:57:10","slug":"talking-the-tropics-with-mike-last-day-of-the-atlantic-hurricane-season-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/39585\/","title":{"rendered":"Talking the Tropics With Mike: Last day of the Atlantic hurricane season!"},"content":{"rendered":"

Jacksonville, Fl. \u2014 THE TROPICS:<\/b><\/p>\n

***** ALWAYS CHECK & RE-CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST & UPDATES! ****<\/b><\/p>\n

Tropics threats\/impacts for Jacksonville\/NE Florida\/SE Georgia: <\/b>Tropical depression #3 is well east\/northeast of Jacksonville. Little to no impacts for the local area with an increased rip current risk at area beaches. Some rain – mostly independent of #3) will rotate across the local area on the low\u2019s backside through Saturday but significant impacts are *not* expected. Check back for updated forecasts.<\/p>\n

The Atlantic Basin Overview:<\/b><\/p>\n

The Atlantic hurricane season is June 1st through Nov. 30th.<\/p>\n

\u201992-L\u2019<\/b> has been upgraded to tropical depression #3 over the Western Atlantic east of the NE FL. & Ga. coasts. <\/p>\n

The NHC outlined a \u2018yellow area\u2019 (low chance for development) in their 8am Sunday tropical weather outlook that has since been increased to \u2018orange\u2019 (medium chance) & went \u2018red\u2019 (high chance) early Fri. afternoon before being upgraded to tropical depression #3 late Fri. afternoon. Still no changes in my thinking in what looks to be a tropical depression or a weak tropical storm. \u201cChantal\u201d is next on the list of Atlantic names. While the system is over the very warm Gulf Stream, shear is quite strong – on the order of 20-30+ mph out of the southwest – & should help to limit intensification as well as keep the system tilted more to the east of the poorly defined center.<\/p>\n

Recent trends in the models continue to show a steady state or increasing a bit while slowly moving northward then bending to the northwest Saturday\/Sat. night moving inland over S. Carolina – near Charleston – Sat. night\/early Sunday. On this track, the Fl. Peninsula would be on the west\/weaker side of the low. Onshore flow – winds out of the north\/northeast – will increase the rip current risk<\/a> at local beaches – always swim & surf with a buddy & close to a lifeguard as one can. There will be no significant uptick in rainfall *from this system* for Florida (but there will still be the typical summer showers & storms with some coastal showers at night & in the morning due to onshore flow).<\/p>\n

The Carolina\u2019s will be prone to stronger onshore flow, rough seas & surf, a gusty breeze & some increase in rainfall. Though even here – where t.d. #3 will come ashore – impacts generally look to be relatively minor.<\/p>\n

T.D. #3\/Chantal should start to accelerate to the northeast & away from the U.S. early next week though interaction with land does make for some uncertainty on exact track & strength beyond landfall.<\/p>\n

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Radar imagery courtesy S. Fl. Water Management District:<\/p>\n

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7-day rainfall forecast:<\/p>\n

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European & GFS model rainfall forecasts for NE Fl. & SE Ga. through Sunday evening (locally heavier amounts in scattered mostly inland t\u2019storms):<\/p>\n

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\u2018Velocity potential anomalies<\/b>\u2019 below. shows \u201cRising\u201d air (green lines) equates with an uptick in overall convection. With rising air, conditions are generally more favorable for tropical development. Where there are brown lines, the air is generally sinking & is often less conducive to tropical cyclones (though not impossible to have development).<\/p>\n

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The \u201cBuresh Bottom Line\u201d: <\/b>Always be prepared!<\/b><\/a>…..<\/b>First Alert Hurricane Preparation Guide<\/b><\/a>… <\/b>City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide<\/b><\/a>… <\/b>Georgia Hurricane Guide<\/b><\/a>.<\/b><\/p>\n

STAY INFORMED: <\/b>Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n

FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: <\/b>Action News Jax app for Apple<\/b><\/a> | <\/b>For Android<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n

WATCH \u201c<\/b>Preparing for the Storm<\/b><\/a>\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n

WATCH \u201c<\/b>The Ins & Outs of Hurricane Season<\/b><\/a>\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n

READ the First Alert Hurricane Center \u201c<\/b>Preparation Guide<\/b><\/a>\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n

LISTEN \u201c<\/b>First Alert Weather: Preparing for the Storm<\/b><\/a>\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n

Federal Alliance for Safe Homes<\/b> (FLASH) * here<\/a> *.<\/p>\n

REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.<\/b><\/p>\n

Realize the forecast cone (\u201dcone of uncertainty\u201d) is the average forecast error over a given time – out to 5 days – & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &\/or where damage might occur.<\/b><\/p>\n

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Water vapor loop<\/b> (dark blue\/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):<\/p>\n

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July<\/b> Atlantic tropical cyclone origins:<\/p>\n

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Averages<\/b> below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for July:<\/p>\n

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Wind shear<\/b> (red – strong shear; green – low shear). Shear is typically strong to start the hurricane season:<\/p>\n

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Saharan dust<\/b> spreads west each year from Africa driven by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air = yellow\/orange\/red\/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that *can* interfere with the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes \u201cwanna\u2019 be\u201d waves will just wait until they get to the other side of – or away from – the dust plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable (we saw this with Beryl & Debby last year). It\u2019s my personal opinion that there is way too much \u201choopla\u201d about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July, & we are indeed seeing a large \u201cblobs\u201d of Saharan dust over the Central & Eastern Atlantic that\u2019s thinning with westward extent but enough of it to make for hazy skies across the Caribbean & – at times – across parts of Florida.<\/p>\n

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2025 names…..<\/b> \u201cChantal\u201d is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization… repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in \u201918… Dorian in \u201919 (the last time this year\u2019s list was used) … Laura, Eta & Iota in \u201820 … Ida in \u201821 … Fiona & Ian in \u201822… no names were retired in \u201823 for the first time since 2014… & Beryl, Helene & Milton last year in 2024]). The WMO decided – beginning in 2021 – that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times – 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here<\/a> *.<\/p>\n

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Hurricane season climatology:<\/b><\/p>\n

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East Atlantic:<\/p>\n

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Mid & upper level wind shear<\/b> (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:<\/p>\n

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Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):<\/p>\n

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Deep oceanic heat content<\/b> over the Gulf, Caribbean & tropical Atlantic. The colors will brighten greatly as the water warms to greater depths deeper into the season. It\u2019s worth noting that the deep oceanic heat content right now is not as high as this time last year.<\/p>\n

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Sea surface temps.:<\/p>\n

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Sea surface temp. anomalies:<\/p>\n

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SE U.S. surface map:<\/p>\n

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Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:<\/p>\n

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Surface analysis of the Gulf:<\/p>\n

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Caribbean:<\/p>\n

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Atlantic Basin wave period forecast <\/b>for 24, 48, 72 & 96 hours respectively:<\/p>\n

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East & Central Pacific:<\/b><\/p>\n

Flossie is weakening & will soon dissipate:<\/p>\n

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Central Pacific:<\/b><\/p>\n

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Hawaii satellite imagery:<\/p>\n

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West Pacific:<\/b><\/p>\n

Global tropical activity:<\/b><\/p>\n

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\u201cMun\u201d stays east of Japan:<\/p>\n

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Future typhoon (TD 05W):<\/p>\n

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Cox Media Group<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Jacksonville, Fl. \u2014 THE TROPICS: ***** ALWAYS CHECK & RE-CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST & UPDATES! **** Tropics threats\/impacts…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":38270,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5136],"tags":[5229,3188,723,2692,7310,67,586,132,5230,68,2969],"class_list":{"0":"post-39585","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-jacksonville","8":"tag-america","9":"tag-fl","10":"tag-florida","11":"tag-hurricanes","12":"tag-jacksonville","13":"tag-united-states","14":"tag-united-states-of-america","15":"tag-unitedstates","16":"tag-unitedstatesofamerica","17":"tag-us","18":"tag-usa"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/114798149637255178","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39585","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39585"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39585\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/38270"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39585"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39585"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39585"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}