{"id":39692,"date":"2025-07-05T02:56:17","date_gmt":"2025-07-05T02:56:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/39692\/"},"modified":"2025-07-05T02:56:17","modified_gmt":"2025-07-05T02:56:17","slug":"how-entrepreneurs-are-using-scenario-planning-to-tame-volatility","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/39692\/","title":{"rendered":"How entrepreneurs are using scenario planning to tame volatility"},"content":{"rendered":"

Open this photo in gallery:<\/a><\/p>\n

Scenario planning has become critical to Geez Louise founders Carmen Douville (left) and Lauren Jones.SUPPLIED<\/p>\n

Toronto-based beverage company Geez Louise has attracted devoted fans of its prebiotic sparkling water since it launched in 2022. Founders Carmen Douville and Lauren Jones say they share an obsession for bubbles and gut health. <\/p>\n

But this year, they\u2019ve fixated on something else: the cost of aluminum. <\/p>\n

It was already the priciest item in Geez Louise\u2019s production, and expenses rose this past March when Canada imposed a 25 per cent retaliatory tariff on imports of aluminum cans from the United States. Despite that, the company \u2013 carried by major retailers such as Farm Boy, Longo\u2019s and Whole Foods \u2013 decided to keep its prices steady. <\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re a premium-priced product, and we know that customers just aren\u2019t spending the same amount of money [as they used to],\u201d says Ms. Jones. <\/p>\n

Though Geez Louise absorbed some increased costs, it was able to mitigate the impacts thanks to sound planning. The company has developed models that capture as many business scenarios as possible, and it has scheduling production far enough in advance to take advantage of big-volume vendor discounts. \u201cIt allowed for us to not have quite the shock that some others have faced,\u201d says Ms. Douville. <\/p>\n

To further keep costs down, the partners even packed and delivered some of their own orders. <\/p>\n

This isn\u2019t the first major challenge Geez Louise has overcome. When the COVID-19 pandemic was wreaking havoc on supply chains in 2022, the company still managed to secure a national grocery distributor. As Geez Louise grows, its founders have learned that they need practical strategies to both survive and thrive during periods of economic uncertainty. That means innovating and also stress-testing their operations for extreme scenarios. <\/p>\n

\u201cEverything\u2019s scary every day, but we just have to develop our own projection models,\u201d\u202fMs. Douville says. <\/p>\n

Across Canada, businesses are facing the spectre of stagflation, unpredictable trade policies, escalating energy costs, and other potential shocks. \u201cThis is the most complex operating environment I have ever seen,\u201d says Sinead Bovell, a Canadian futurist now based in New York City, and the founder of WAYE, a tech education company. <\/p>\n

Open this photo in gallery:<\/a><\/p>\n

Izzy Poirier says AI can be a tool to both conduct business and strategize.SUPPLIED<\/p>\n

With so many factors at play, she says too many business leaders \u201cplay Whack-a-Mole with headlines,\u201d jumping from one challenge to another without a co-ordinated long-term plan. That isn\u2019t much of a strategy, says Ms. Bovell. <\/p>\n

Nobody can predict the future, but scenario planning allows leaders to stay adaptable, she says. Ask yourself what business you\u2019re in, and what is the edge of your market doing. \u201cThat\u2019s where you\u2019ll probably be disrupted in terms of your business model.\u201d <\/p>\n

Every business will have its own process to anticipate and prepare for future events. Many are jumping on AI tools to make the processes easier. \u201cThey\u2019re using artificial intelligence to almost \u2018war game\u2019 the operating landscape,\u201d says Ms. Bovell. <\/p>\n

Of course, the impacts of AI are among the challenges for businesses, but no company can afford to ignore AI\u2019s potential in planning. \u201cIt would be akin to not adopting electricity or the internet,\u201d she says. <\/p>\n

Organizations that tend to be more familiar with scenario planning, such as financial companies, are among the leaders in AI-assisted planning. But some creative industries are also beginning to adopt AI to help future-proof their businesses, from big-picture tactics to day-to-day efficiencies. <\/p>\n

Ottawa-based brand designer and strategist Izzy Poirier leverages ChatGPT to analyze business strategies. She feeds the platform information about her goals, and says she can now have a conversation with it \u201cas if it was another strategist.\u201d <\/p>\n

For Ms. Poirier, AI isn\u2019t just shaping how she plans for what\u2019s next \u2013 it\u2019s also transforming how she works in order to compete. She now uses image generation tools such as Adobe Firefly and Midjourney for design assets. When creating a logo for one of her clients \u2013 an Ottawa-based bakery called SweetCheeks \u2013 Ms. Poirier fed design concepts into an AI image generator. She then sketched on top of the results by hand. \u201cI still wanted to bring in the true artistry of logo design,\u201d she says. <\/p>\n

While AI can trigger existential dread for many creatives, Ms. Poirier says the tool is helping her achieve good design faster. \u201cI jumped on the bandwagon because I figured if I don\u2019t, then I\u2019ll be left behind.\u201d <\/p>\n

Like Ms. Poirier, the Geez Louise team isn\u2019t avoiding risks but is preparing for them. Navigating uncertainty requires agility, curiosity and a willingness to be bold. \u201cWe\u2019re still learning, and we\u2019re not afraid to do what\u2019s best for the business,\u201d says Ms. Jones. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Open this photo in gallery: Scenario planning has become critical to Geez Louise founders Carmen Douville (left) and…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":39693,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[31731,64,31735,31733,607,31734,31732,67,132,68],"class_list":{"0":"post-39692","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-entrepreneurship","8":"tag-adveditorial","9":"tag-business","10":"tag-businessmodels","11":"tag-businessplanning","12":"tag-entrepreneurship","13":"tag-futureproofing","14":"tag-ordid3751604600sb","15":"tag-united-states","16":"tag-unitedstates","17":"tag-us"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/114798382453103878","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39692","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39692"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39692\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/39693"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39692"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39692"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39692"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}