{"id":399453,"date":"2025-11-23T16:21:17","date_gmt":"2025-11-23T16:21:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/399453\/"},"modified":"2025-11-23T16:21:17","modified_gmt":"2025-11-23T16:21:17","slug":"penn-state-bowl-chances-skyrocket-in-new-espn-fpi-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/399453\/","title":{"rendered":"Penn State bowl chances skyrocket in new ESPN FPI update"},"content":{"rendered":"

Penn State is one win away from clinching a bowl berth. And, the latest ESPN Football Power Index<\/strong><\/a> update believes the Lions will do exactly that next weekend at Rutgers. <\/p>\n

Interim head coach Terry Smith\u2019s<\/a><\/strong> team is now ranked No. 19. That is up one spot from where it was a week ago.<\/p>\n

First, for those unfamiliar with it, ESPN explains the FPI as follows:<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team\u2019s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Lions\u2019 long-term outlook is as follows:<\/p>\n

Penn State updated long-term 2025 outlook per ESPN\u2019s FPI on Nov.<\/strong> 23<\/p>\n

Regular season record projection: <\/strong>5.5-6.5 \u27a1\ufe0f 5.8-6.2<\/p>\n

How likely are the Lions to win out?: <\/strong>55.8 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 83 percent<\/p>\n

Odds of winning six games: <\/strong>55.8 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 83 percent<\/p>\n

Odds of winning the Big Ten<\/strong>: 0 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 0 percent<\/p>\n

Chances of making the CFP:<\/strong> 0.0 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 0.0 percent<\/p>\n

Chances of making the title game:<\/strong> 0 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 0 percent<\/p>\n

Penn State percent chance to win it all:<\/strong> 0.0 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 0 percent<\/p>\n

Become part of the Penn State community with Blue-White Illustrated. Start for $1 for the first week, and get a complimentary year of The Athletic included with your membership.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Full FPI top 10 after Week <\/strong>13:<\/p>\n

1 Ohio State<\/p>\n

2 Indiana<\/p>\n

3 Notre Dame<\/p>\n

4 Oregon<\/p>\n

5 Alabama<\/p>\n

6 Georgia<\/p>\n

7 Texas Tech<\/p>\n

8 Utah<\/p>\n

9 Texas A&M<\/p>\n

10 Miami<\/p>\n

19 Penn State<\/p>\n

Want news like this delivered straight to your inbox for FREE? Sign up today for the BWI breaking newsletter! You\u2019ll also get daily updates with the top headlines of the day five times a week.\u00a0Click here to sign-up!<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Penn State and the FPI: Week by week recap<\/p>\n

Penn State updated long-term 2025 outlook per ESPN\u2019s FPI on Nov.<\/strong> 16<\/p>\n

Regular season record projection: <\/strong>5.2-6.8 \u27a1\ufe0f 5.5-6.5<\/p>\n

How likely are the Lions to win out?: <\/strong>40 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 55.8 percent<\/p>\n

Odds of winning six games: <\/strong>40 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 55.8 percent<\/p>\n

Odds of winning the Big Ten<\/strong>: 0 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 0 percent<\/p>\n

Chances of making the CFP:<\/strong> 0.0 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 0.0 percent<\/p>\n

Chances of making the title game:<\/strong> 0 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 0 percent<\/p>\n

Penn State percent chance to win it all:<\/strong> 0.0 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 0 percent<\/p>\n

Penn State updated long-term 2025 outlook per ESPN\u2019s FPI on Nov. 9:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Regular season record projection: <\/strong>5.4-6.6 \u27a1\ufe0f 5.2-6.8<\/p>\n

How likely are the Lions to win out?: <\/strong>6.7 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 42.3 percent<\/p>\n

Odds of winning six games: <\/strong>47.3 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 42.3 percent<\/p>\n

Odds of winning the Big Ten<\/strong>: 0 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 0 percent<\/p>\n

Chances of making the CFP:<\/strong> 0.0 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 0.0 percent<\/p>\n

Chances of making the title game:<\/strong> 0 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 0 percent<\/p>\n

Penn State percent chance to win it all:<\/strong> 0.0 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 0 percent<\/p>\n

Penn State updated long-term 2025 outlook per ESPN\u2019s FPI on Nov. 9:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Regular season record projection: <\/strong>5.6-6.4 \u27a1\ufe0f 5.4-6.6<\/p>\n

How likely are the Lions to win out?: <\/strong>1.2 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 6.7 percent<\/p>\n

Odds of winning six games: <\/strong>55 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 47.3 percent<\/p>\n

Odds of winning the Big Ten<\/strong>: 0 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 0 percent<\/p>\n

Chances of making the CFP:<\/strong> 0.0 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 0.0 percent<\/p>\n

Chances of making the title game:<\/strong> 0 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 0 percent<\/p>\n

Penn State percent chance to win it all:<\/strong> 0.0 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 0 percent<\/p>\n

Penn State updated long-term 2025 outlook per ESPN\u2019s FPI on Oct. 26:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Regular season record projection: <\/strong>5.7-6.3 \u27a1\ufe0f 5.6-6.4<\/p>\n

How likely are the Lions to win out?: <\/strong>1.2 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 1.2 percent<\/p>\n

Odds of winning six games: <\/strong>59.2 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 55 percent<\/p>\n

Odds of winning the Big Ten<\/strong>: 0 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 0 percent<\/p>\n

Chances of making the CFP:<\/strong> 0.0 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 0.0 percent<\/p>\n

Chances of making the title game:<\/strong> 0 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 0 percent<\/p>\n

Penn State percent chance to win it all:<\/strong> 0.0 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 0 percent<\/p>\n

Penn State updated long-term 2025 outlook per ESPN\u2019s FPI on Oct. 19:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Regular season record projection: <\/strong>6-6 \u27a1\ufe0f 5.7-6.3<\/p>\n

How likely are the Lions to win out?: <\/strong>0.6 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 1.2 percent<\/p>\n

Odds of winning six games: <\/strong>96.1 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 59.2 percent<\/p>\n

Odds of winning the Big Ten<\/strong>: 0 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 0 percent<\/p>\n

Chances of making the CFP:<\/strong> 0.1 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 0.0 percent<\/p>\n

Chances of making the title game:<\/strong> 0 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 0 percent<\/p>\n

Penn State percent chance to win it all:<\/strong> 0.0 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 0 percent<\/p>\n

Where things stood after Northwestern?<\/p>\n

Regular season record projection: <\/strong>7.2-4.8 \u27a1\ufe0f 6-6<\/p>\n

How likely are the Lions to win out?: <\/strong>1.0 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 0.6 percent<\/p>\n

Odds of winning six games: <\/strong>96.1 percent<\/p>\n

Odds of winning the Big Ten<\/strong>: 0 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 0 percent<\/p>\n

Chances of making the CFP:<\/strong> 1.9 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 0.0 percent<\/p>\n

Chances of making the title game:<\/strong> 0.1 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 0 percent<\/p>\n

Penn State percent chance to win it all:<\/strong> 0.0 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 0 percent<\/p>\n

Where did things stand after UCLA?<\/p>\n

Regular season record projection: <\/strong>8.7-3.4 \u27a1\ufe0f 7.2-4.8<\/p>\n

How likely are the Lions to win out?: <\/strong>1.5 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 1.0 percent<\/p>\n

Odds of winning the Big Ten<\/strong>: 2.3 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 0 percent<\/p>\n

Chances of making the CFP:<\/strong> 22.6 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 1.9 percent<\/p>\n

Chances of making the title game:<\/strong> 2.8 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 0.1 percent<\/p>\n

Penn State percent chance to win it all:<\/strong> 1.2 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 0.0 percent<\/p>\n

Where were the Lions before UCLA?<\/p>\n

Regular season record projection: <\/strong>9.3-2.8 \u27a1\ufe0f 8.7-3.4<\/p>\n

How likely are the Lions to win out?: <\/strong>1.2 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 1.5 percent<\/p>\n

Odds of winning the Big Ten<\/strong>: 7.7 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 2.1 percent<\/p>\n

Chances of making the CFP:<\/strong> 38.8 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 22.6 percent<\/p>\n

Chances of making the title game:<\/strong> 6.6 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 2.8 percent<\/p>\n

Penn State percent chance to win it all: <\/strong>3.1 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 1.2 percent<\/p>\n

Where was Penn State after the bye week and before Oregon?<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s a look: <\/p>\n

Regular season record projection: <\/strong>9.7-2.6 \u27a1\ufe0f 9.3-2.8<\/p>\n

How likely are the Lions to win out?: <\/strong>2.3 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 1.2 percent<\/p>\n

Odds of winning the Big Ten<\/strong>: 12.2 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 7.7 percent<\/p>\n

Chances of making the CFP:<\/strong> 47.2 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 38.8 percent<\/p>\n

Chances of making the title game:<\/strong> 9.6 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 6.6 percent<\/p>\n

Penn State percent chance to win it all: <\/strong>4.8 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 3.1 percent<\/p>\n

Here is how things changed from Week 2 to Week 3:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Regular season record projection: <\/strong>9.7-2.6 \u27a1\ufe0f 9.7-2.6<\/p>\n

How likely are the Lions to win out?: <\/strong>2.4 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 2.3 percent<\/p>\n

Odds of winning the Big Ten<\/strong>: 12.7 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 12.2 percent<\/p>\n

Chances of making the CFP:<\/strong> 52.5 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 47.2 percent<\/p>\n

Chances of making the title game:<\/strong> 11.5 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 9.6 percent<\/p>\n

Penn State percent chance to win it all: <\/strong>6.0 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 4.8 percent<\/p>\n

And here is how things changed from Week 1 to Week 2, for comparison\u2019s sake:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Regular season record projection: <\/strong>10.3-2.1 \u27a1\ufe0f 9.7-2.6<\/p>\n

Win-out percentage: <\/strong>5.9 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 2.4 percent<\/p>\n

Win the Big Ten percentage: <\/strong>24.2 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 12.7 percent<\/p>\n

Chances of making the CFP:<\/strong> 58.5 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 52.5 percent<\/p>\n

Chances of making the title game:<\/strong> 14 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 11.5 percent<\/p>\n

Penn State percent chance to win it all: <\/strong>7.3 percent \u27a1\ufe0f 6.0 percent<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Penn State is one win away from clinching a bowl berth. And, the latest ESPN Football Power Index…\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":399454,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[43],"tags":[1318,1317,1315,1316,1718,62,67,132,68],"class_list":{"0":"post-399453","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ncaa-football","8":"tag-football","9":"tag-ncaa","10":"tag-ncaa-football","11":"tag-ncaafootball","12":"tag-regwall","13":"tag-sports","14":"tag-united-states","15":"tag-unitedstates","16":"tag-us"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@us\/115599932431273871","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/399453","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=399453"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/399453\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/399454"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=399453"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=399453"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=399453"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}